Modeling the influence of polls on elections: a population dynamics approach

We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters.     

Transnational absentee voting in the 2006 Mexican presidential election: The roots of participation

In many of the major migrant-sending countries of the developing world, governments have extended political rights to expatriates, often including the right to vote via absentee ballot. Little is known about the factors that shape transnational electoral participation, however. Using official records provided by the Mexican Federal Electoral Institute, we model the incidence of expatriate ballot solicitations prior to the 2006 presidential election in Mexico. Based on a series of event count regression analyses conducted at the level of U.S. metropolitan statistical areas, we find that transnational involvement in the election depended not only on socioeconomic factors but also on the concentration of Mexican civic associations within the local community, the presence of Spanish-language media, and distance from the Mexican border. This suggests that the roots of immigrant transnational participation include factors familiar to social scientists as well as dynamics uniquely relevant to immigrant communities.     

Revenue formation and revenue sharing in the U.S. federal system

Paper presented at the International Seminar on International Seminar on “Fiscal Federalism and Change of Functions in the Finance and Banking Systems”     

Surplus transfer and economic development in Taiwan and Shanghai

Abstract

We learn by comparing. Yet reality present us with few clear-cut comparisons. There are almost always mitigating factors. Nowhere is this more evident than in the comparison of economic and political systems. For example, the average citizen of the Soviet Union is poorer and politically more inhibited than a counterpart in the United States; but is this the inevitable consequence of Marxism(-Leninism), or is it because the Soviet citizen lives in a system descended from czarist serfdom, always relatively poor, always oppressed?