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961.
James H. Noren 《后苏联事务》2013,29(3):238-276
A retired CIA analyst of the Soviet economy presents a comprehensive and in-depth comparison of diverse Western estimates of the size and rate of growth of Soviet military expenditures from the mid-1950s through 1990. Analyzing the explicit criteria and implicit assumptions that underlay the compilation of these estimates, the author evaluates the relative veracity of divergent claims. The article then examines alternative claims about the impact of Gorbachev and giasnost' on our understanding of Soviet defense expenditures, and explores the extent to which Soviet leaders themselves knew how much they were spending in this area. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: P27, P24, P52. 相似文献
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We propose a population dynamics model for quantifying the effects of polling data on the outcome of multi-party elections decided by a majority-rule voting process. We divide the population into two groups: committed voters impervious to polling data, and susceptible voters whose decision to vote is influenced by data, depending on its reliability. This population-based approach to modeling the process sidesteps the problem of upscaling models based upon the choices made by individuals. We find releasing poll data is not advantageous to leading candidates, but it can be exploited by those closely trailing. The analysis identifies the particular type of voting impetus at play in different stages of an election and could help strategists optimize their influence on susceptible voters. 相似文献
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In many of the major migrant-sending countries of the developing world, governments have extended political rights to expatriates, often including the right to vote via absentee ballot. Little is known about the factors that shape transnational electoral participation, however. Using official records provided by the Mexican Federal Electoral Institute, we model the incidence of expatriate ballot solicitations prior to the 2006 presidential election in Mexico. Based on a series of event count regression analyses conducted at the level of U.S. metropolitan statistical areas, we find that transnational involvement in the election depended not only on socioeconomic factors but also on the concentration of Mexican civic associations within the local community, the presence of Spanish-language media, and distance from the Mexican border. This suggests that the roots of immigrant transnational participation include factors familiar to social scientists as well as dynamics uniquely relevant to immigrant communities. 相似文献