The motivation of European Union mediation in civil conflicts

ABSTRACT

Since the EU has expanded its common security focus in the 1990s, this important regional organisation has become the most frequent mediator in low-level civil conflicts worldwide. Under what conditions is the European Union (EU) likely to become involved in mediation in civil conflicts? Is the participation in mediation only explained by the EU's bias toward its near abroad, or is the EU more strategic? Some scholars have suggested that the EU's regional bias for its near abroad is the key explanation for the onset of EU mediation, but we propose that the reality of EU mediation presents a more nuanced story. We posit three explanations based on mediator bias: regional bias, economic bias, and normative bias. Overall, we argue that the EU will mediate in civil conflicts that are in its near abroad, but also where the EU has economic bias and where the EU can exercise its normative power in highly intractable conflicts. We test our hypotheses using statistical analysis of the UCDP low-level civil conflicts data from 1993 to 2004 and Civil War Mediation data from 1974 to 2005. We find strong support for our hypotheses, determining key factors that reveal the EU's strategic onset of mediation.     

The Accuracy of Auditors' and Layered Voice Analysis (LVA) Operators' Judgments of Truth and Deception During Police Questioning*

The purpose of this study was to determine if auditors could identify truthful and deceptive persons in a sample (n = 74) of audio recordings used to assess the effectiveness of layered voice analysis (LVA). The LVA employs an automated algorithm to detect deception, but it was not effective here. There were 31 truthful and 43 deceptive persons in the sample and two LVA operators averaged 48% correct decisions on truth‐tellers and 25% on deceivers. Subsequent to the LVA analysis the recordings were audited by three interviewers, each independently rendering a decision of truthful or deceptive and indicating their confidence. Auditors' judgments averaged 68% correct decisions on truth‐tellers and 71% on deceivers. Auditors' detection rates, generally, exceeded chance and there was significantly (p < 0.05) greater confidence on correct than incorrect judgments of deceivers but not on truth‐tellers. These results suggest that the success reported for LVA analysis may be due to operator's judgment.     

New York State TrueAllele® Casework Validation Study

DNA evidence can pose interpretation challenges, particularly with low‐level or mixed samples. It would be desirable to make full use of the quantitative data, consider every genotype possibility, and objectively produce accurate and reproducible DNA match results. Probabilistic genotype computing is designed to achieve these goals. This validation study assessed TrueAllele^® probabilistic computer interpretation on 368 evidence items in 41 test cases and compared the results with human review of the same data. Whenever there was a human result, the computer's genotype was concordant. Further, the computer produced a match statistic on 81 mixture items (for 87 inferred matching genotypes) in the test cases, while human review reported a statistic on 25 of these items (30.9%). Using match statistics to quantify information, probabilistic genotyping was shown to be sensitive, specific, and reproducible. These results demonstrate that objective probabilistic genotyping of biological evidence can reliably preserve DNA identification information.     

How to Harness the Positive Potential of KKN: Explaining Variation in the Private Sector Provision of Public Goods in Indonesia

This article argues that the two prevailing perspectives that explain private sector participation in infrastructure in developing countries – new institutional economics and the rent-seeking approach – cannot account for the evident variations within and across sectors in a given country. This study uses two cases from Indonesia's attempt to promote private investment in toll road construction to demonstrate that a firm-level analysis is adequate to the task. In particular, the specific incentive structure that a rent-seeker faces may explain whether positive or negative rent will be facilitated.     

A Study of Maltreated Children and Their Families in Juvenile Court. III. Case Plans

We reviewed publicly available court records of 88 cases referred to juvenile court for maltreatment in Hennepin County, Minnesota. The goal of the current study was to examine the content of, and extent of compliance with, case plans. There was an average of 9.5 items per child on the case plan. About half the case plans did not address at least one presenting maltreatment type. Compliance was generally high for items ordered for the children, and for cases that ended in family preservation. However, information on compliance was not included in the court records for many of the items.