Understanding of forensic expert reports by judges,defense lawyers and forensic professionals

Forensic scientists strongly advocate the use of likelihood ratios for expressing the diagnostic value of evidence in technical forensic reports. They call this the logically correct approach. The correct comprehension of such likelihood ratios by jurists, however, appears to be particularly problematic. The present research has empirically investigated this issue for defense lawyers and criminal judges. For comparative purposes forensic professionals, many of whom use the logically correct approach, were included in the study as well.

Using fictitious forensic reports, it was shown that proper understanding of likelihood ratios by jurists is quite poor, due mainly, but not exclusively, to the prosecutor's fallacy. Forensic professionals outperformed jurists to a large extent but made many mistakes themselves. It is further shown that participants’ self-expressed supposed level of understanding of logically correct conclusions is quite high and thus not justified by their levels of proper understanding. Suggestions for how to improve the situation are presented.     

Youth labor migration and its family setting,The Netherlands 1850–1940

This article is based on the reconstructed life course patterns of about 1500 adolescent men and women, born between 1833 and 1912 in the Dutch province of Utrecht. The incidence of youth migration is investigated by sex, birth period, and birthplace. The influence of the family on the decision to migrate is analyzed with event history techniques. The results are evaluated in the context of regional customs related to the process of leaving home. A large number of persons, between 30 and 55 percent of all unmarried youths, participated in youth migration. However, family strategies were more directed toward keeping offspring from migrating than toward stimulating them to move.     

Labor strategies of families: An introduction

The collection presents an approach to history in which the dominance of structure is replaced by the effects of human agency. Individual motives and actions are the subject of these studies. In particular, the articles focus on the economic approach of family strategies, starting with a methodological discussion of the problematic concept of strategies: how to disentangle the influence of social structure, family circumstances, and individual behavior. The conflicting interests of individuals resulted in replacing the so-called “joint utility function” with that of “bargained family decisions.” The focus of the contributions is on the labor deployment of family members. All articles deal with three factors influencing labor deployment: adaptation to the structural environment, regulation of labor within the family, and reconciliation of choices at transition points during the individual life course of family members.     

TWO CITIES Urban Migration and Settlement in Nineteenth-Century Sweden

This article examines how migrants settled and formed families in two Swedish towns—Linköping and Sundsvall—with different occupational structures during industrialization. Sex- and socio-economic differentials in the rural–urban and urban–urban migration are discussed, as well as persistence rates in the new urban environment among different social groups. Analysis of in-migration and marriage patterns shows that social and geographical endogamy are equally significant in the two towns. Migrants tended primarily to marry migrants and town-born primarily to marry town-born. Moreover, relatively closed marriage boundaries were found among the in-migrants: those that came from an urban background tended to find an “urban partner.”     

Do African Manufacturing Firms Learn from Exporting?

We use firm-level panel data for the manufacturing sector in four African countries to investigate whether exporting impacts on efficiency, and whether efficient firms self-select into the export market. Based on simultaneous estimation of a production function and an export regression, our preferred results indicate significant efficiency gains from exporting, which can be interpreted as learning by exporting. We show that modelling unobserved heterogeneity by a flexible approach is important for deriving this conclusion. A policy implication of our results is that Africa would gain from orientating its manufacturing sector towards exporting.