A forecasting model for state expenditures

In this study, the median voter model is applied to the problem of predicting state public expenditures in four major categories: human services, elementary and secondary education, higher education, and health services. Demand functions for public services are derived within a formal utility-maximizing model. The resulting model is estimated using time-series data for a representative state and the model is used to predict state spending for fiscal year 1985. The results of the estimation are consistent with the predictions of the median voter model and the forecasts correspond closely to those made by the State Bureau of the Budget. In contrast, a naive autoregressive model of state spending performs poorly.     

Toward a theory of reproduction

Summary In this article I have attempted to theorize the relations of reproduction in a manner that makes their operation in history more apparent. Using an historical materialist analysis, I have diverged from previous analysis by situating reproduction in the base and positing a co-determinative relation between production and reproduction. I have argued that due to the distinctly different dynamic of reproduction, its longer completion time and its political subordination in class societies, we must pursue different research strategies than those used to illustrate the impact of production on reproduction. This article serves only to give the broadest outline of concerns and questions to focus upon in developing new strategies. As such it suggests that the ubiquity of patriarchy and its preservation, even in the face of structural contradictions with production, provide a starting place for such inquiry. To this end I have developed a model of the modes of reproduction in order to rediscover reproduction in history, its dynamic and its interaction with production.This perspective permits us to reanalyze old rules and customs previously understood exclusively as rules of production (e.g., rules of inheritance and property, certain labour and welfare laws), and discover within them the impact of the reproductive as well as the productive imperative. The model emphasizes the inextricable connection between production and reproduction at the same time that it calls attention to the distinctiveness of their dynamics. Dynamics which, because of their distinctiveness, do not automatically guarantee balance between the two spheres. Hence the continuous necessity for socially engineering this balance, a necessity requiring even more intervention as the two spheres become structurally more alienated.     

The Definition and Measurement of ‘Gang Status’: Policy Implications for Juvenile Justice

In this article, we examine gang membership and gang activity in Dona Ana County, New Mexico. We collected the data through a self-administered questionnaire completed by 373 randomly selected 9th and 11th grade students attending two high schools and two junior high schools. By the self-report method, 56 indicated they were currently active in a gang; another 45 had been members of gangs but were no longer involved; and, “wannabes,” or students who at some time had considered joining a gang but did not or could not, totaled 68. The 169 students who indicated some interest in or involvement with gangs represented 45% of the total sample. A more restrictive definition of actual gang membership (i.e., the group must have initiation rites and employ some external symbols of membership, such as “colors,” tattoos, or handsigns) results in a different trichotomization. We employ both the self-definition and restrictive definition of gang membership in our analysis of their personal biographical characteristics and criminal behavior. Our findings suggest that self-definition demonstrates clearer ties to self-reported gang-related activities than does the more restrictive one. We discuss the policy implications of this finding in the article.     

Reading aloud as performance and its representation on television programmes for children

ABSTRACT

The social practice of reading aloud picture books to children, or shared reading, has been represented on many televisions programmes broadcast across English-speaking countries. This article views shared reading as a performance, and explores its transformation on two television shows for children and the potential of such shows to promote reading engagement and literacy development. Taking a critical multimodal perspective, we analyse shared reading in real life and on television as a social practice, focusing on the ways the participants talk about the picture book, relate it to exterior texts or activities, and legitimise shared reading through the employment of multimodal and interactive strategies. The analysis reveals significant differences between actual adult–child shared reading and its representation on television. The comparison illustrates the potential benefits and limitations of television shows in which picture books are read to the viewer, in terms of promoting shared reading among families and supporting young children’s emergent literacy development.