When Two Isn’t Better Than One: Predictors of Early Sexual Activity in Adolescence Using a Cumulative Risk Model

This study explored factors that may be associated with early initiation of sexual activity among adolescents. Using the cumulative risk model, we hypothesized that as exposure to risk factors increases, so does the likelihood of early sexual debut. A sample of 273 (53% girls, 90% European American) adolescents was followed longitudinally from age 13 to 15. The results indicate that, for girls, increased television viewing, low self-esteem, poor parental relationships, living in a non-intact household, higher levels of externalizing behavior (ADHD symptomology), low academic achievement, and parents with low education levels were associated with earlier sexual debut. For boys, advanced pubertal development, increased television viewing, higher rates of externalizing behaviors (ADHD and ODD symptoms), and poor parental relationships were associated with earlier sexual debut. As hypothesized, predictive power increases with the accumulation of these risks; girls are 1.56 times more likely to become sexually active with an increase of only one risk and boys are 1.90 times more likely.

Stress and Emotional Reactivity as Explanations for Gender Differences in Adolescents’ Depressive Symptoms

In this longitudinal study, we examined whether certain types of stressful events and how individuals respond to these events would explain gender differences in depressive symptoms among adolescents. We hypothesized that certain stressful events would mediate the relationship between gender and depressive symptoms. We also hypothesized that individual differences in emotional reactivity would impact part of this relationship. Lastly, we examined whether gender differences in early childhood temperament might explain gender differences in emotional reactivity in adolescence. We examined these hypotheses in a sample of 315 adolescents (51% females; 93% Caucasian; 3% African–American; and 1% each Hispanic, Asian–American, and Native American) participating in a longitudinal study of child development since birth. We used multiple regression and constrained nonlinear regression to analyze the data. Results indicated that stressful events significantly mediated gender differences in depression, and that individual differences in emotional reactivity to these stressors significantly moderated the relationship between stress and depression. We also observed significant gender differences in emotional reactivity to these stressors; temperamental differences in withdrawal negativity in infancy were marginally significant in mediating gender differences in emotional reactivity to stress in adolescence.

Book reviews

The following books are reviewed.

Between the lines: letters and diaries from elsie inglis's russian unit AUDREY FAWCETT CAHILL, 1999 Edinburgh: The Pentland Press. x + 372 pp., ISBN 1 85821 630 3, £17.00

For Freedom's Sake: the life of Fannie Lou Hamer CHANA KIA LEE, 1999 Urbana: University of Illinois Press, xvi + 225 pp. ISBN 0 252 02151 7

To Keep the Waters Troubled: the life of Ida B. Wells Linda O. McMurry, 1998 New York: Oxford University Press. xvi + 400 pp., ISBN 0 19 508812 3

Telling Women's Lives: narrative inquiries in the history of women's education KATHLEEN WEILER & SUE MIDDLETON (Eds), 1999 Buckingham: Open University Press. x + 166 pp., ISBN 0335 20173 3, paperback, £16.99

Remaking Women: feminism and modernity in the Middle East LILA ABU-LUGHOD (Ed.), 1998 Princeton: Princeton University Press. xi + 287 pp., ISBN 0 691 05792 3, paperback

Women's Writing of the First World War: an anthology ANGELA K. SMITH (Ed.), 2000 Manchester: Manchester University Press. xii + 340 pp., ISBN 0 7190 5072 3, hardback, 0 7190 5073 1, paperback     

Fighting for Recovery: foremothers and feminism in the 1970s

ABSTRACT

This article argues that the feminist recovery of ‘a history of our own’ during the 1970s proved difficult in ways not fully addressed in generalising narratives (celebratory or regretful) of feminist historical work. The recovery of a nineteenth-century ‘pioneer woman', Mary Hallock Foote, demonstrates the competing interests in play—feminist and anti-feminist, popular and scholarly, public and familial, national and local—as well as the problematic positions of that these cross-cutting debates. The question of recovery, use and even ownership, of Foote and her history retains its ability to spark argument almost fifty years later.     

Dynamic Conditional Correlations in Political Science

Time-varying relationships and volatility are two methodological challenges that are particular to the field of time series. In the case of the former, more comprehensive understanding can emerge when we ask under what circumstances relationships may change. The impact of context—such as the political environment, the state of the economy, the international situation, etc.—is often missing in dynamic analyses that estimate time-invariant parameters. In addition, time-varying volatility presents a number of challenges including threats to inference if left unchecked. Among time-varying parameter models, the Dynamic Conditional Correlation (DCC) model is a creative and useful approach that deals effectively with over-time variation in both the mean and variance of time series. The DCC model allows us to study the evolution of relationships over time in a multivariate setting by relaxing model assumptions and offers researchers a chance to reinvigorate understandings that are tested using time series data. We demonstrate the method's potential in the first example by showing how the importance of subjective evaluations of the economy are not constant, but vary considerably over time as predictors of presidential approval. A second example using international dyadic time series data shows that the story of movement and comovement is incomplete without an understanding of the dynamics of their variance as well as their means.     

Studying the role of political competition in the evolution of government size over long horizons

Here we argue for the use of cointegration and error correction analysis to combine economic factors that are nonstationary with political factors that are stationary into an empirical model of the evolution of public policy over long periods. The approach is applied to disentangle the contributions of economics and politics to the evolution of public expenditure by the Government of Canada over 130 years. Political competition emerges as the primary political factor affecting government size.     

A comparison of three shoe sole impression lifting methods at high substrate temperatures

Footwear impressions are a common form of evidence found at crime scenes, and the accurate recovery and recording of such impressions is critical for shoe sole comparison and identification. The lifting of shoe sole impressions from hot surfaces (>30°C/86°F) and in hot environments has received little attention in the literature, particularly in relation to the recovery of class and randomly acquired characteristics (RACs) required for accurate comparisons. This study addressed this knowledge gap by comparing the performance of three common impression lifters (gelatin, adhesive, and vinyl static cling film) at recovering shoe sole impressions in dust from hot flooring substrates. Dry origin dust shoe sole impressions were made on ceramic tile, galvanized metal, and laminated wood flooring using a shoe that possessed two RACs and five class characteristics present on the sole. Substrates were left in direct full sun for five hours during a summer day prior to lifting. Performance was measured by the proportion of RACs and class characteristics visible in each lifted impression. Results demonstrated that the vinyl static cling film tested performed poorly across all substrates, particularly for metal (23.8% marks recovered), including notable shrinkage of the lifted impression. In contrast, adhesive (~96% marks recovered over all substrates), and to a lesser extent gelatin (~85%), lifts were highly successful on hot substrates. These data suggest that adhesive lifts can consistently and accurately recover shoe sole impressions from hot substrates. This study contributes critical information for crime scene examiners to improve and expand evidence recovery in hot environments.     

Can computed tomography replace or supplement autopsy?

Postmortem computed tomography (PMCT) has been integrated into the practice of many forensic pathologists. To evaluate the utility of PMCT in supplementing and/or supplanting medicolegal autopsy, we conducted a prospective double-blind comparison of abnormal findings reported by the autopsy pathologist with those reported by a radiologist reviewing the PMCT. We reviewed 890 cases: 167 with blunt force injury (BFI), 63 with pediatric trauma (under 5 years), 203 firearm injuries, and 457 drug poisoning deaths. Autopsy and radiology reports were coded using the Abbreviated Injury Scale and abnormal findings and cause of death (COD) were compared for congruence in consensus conferences with novel pathologists and radiologists. Overall sensitivity for recognizing abnormal findings was 71% for PMCT and 74.6% for autopsy. Sensitivities for PMCT/autopsy were 74%/73.1% for BFI, 61.5%/71.4% for pediatric trauma, 84.9%/83.7% for firearm injuries, and 56.5%/66.4% for drug poisoning deaths. COD assigned by reviewing PMCT/autopsy was correct in 88%/95.8% of BFI cases, 99%/99.5% of firearm fatalities, 82.5%/98.5% of pediatric trauma deaths, and 84%/100% of drug poisoning deaths of individuals younger than 50. Both autopsy and PMCT were imperfect in recognizing injuries. However, both methods identified the most important findings and are sufficient to establish COD in cases of BFI, pediatric trauma, firearm injuries and drug poisoning in individuals younger than 50. Ideally, all forensic pathologists would have access to a CT scanner and a consulting radiologist. This would allow a flexible approach that meets the diagnostic needs of each case and best serves decedents' families and other stakeholders.     

From Research Evidence to “Evidence by Proxy”? Organizational Enactment of Evidence‐Based Health Care in Four High‐Income Countries

Drawing on multiple qualitative case studies of evidence‐based health care conducted in Sweden, Canada, Australia, and the United Kingdom, the authors systematically explore the composition, circulation, and role of codified knowledge deployed in the organizational enactment of evidence‐based practice. The article describes the “chain of codified knowledge,” which reflects the institutionalization of evidence‐based practice as organizational business as usual, and shows that it is dominated by performance standards, policies and procedures, and locally collected (improvement and audit) data. These interconnected forms of “evidence by proxy,” which are informed by research partly or indirectly, enable simplification, selective reinforcement, and contextualization of scientific knowledge. The analysis reveals the dual effects of this codification dynamic on evidence‐based practice and highlights the influence of macro‐level ideological, historical, and technological factors on the composition and circulation of codified knowledge in the organizational enactment of evidence‐based health care in different countries.     

An expert-generated tool for assessing policy capacity

“Policy capacity” describes the ability of policy-making systems to do quality work. Better-quality policy work leads to more successful policies. There have been limited attempts to operationalize theoretical understanding of policy capacity, resulting in a lack of shared understanding and assessment metrics. In this Delphi study, health policy experts validated an existing multidimensional conceptual framework for policy capacity. Factors that contribute to policy success were identified and rated to represent aspects of policy capacity, and arranged within the conceptual framework, as were factor indicators. The resulting tool provides expert-generated items for transparently and systematically assessing policy capacity.