The Congress and fiscal policy

Although the common belief is that the Congress has paid little attention to fiscal policy, the same kinds of political-economic models which have been used to explain presidential budgetary policy may be used equally well to explain congressional budgetary behavior. The Congress' fiscal policy appears to be systematically sensitive to both economic and political factors. Changes in the unemployment rate have a major impact on congressional budgetary policy. As for political factors, the President's lead is followed most closely on revenue proposals and not at all on the expenditure side. The electoral cycle, in particular the off-year congressional election year, is also important; inducing larger deficits and smaller increases in revenues. When the influences on congressional fiscal behavior are compared with those on presidential behavior, the sources of the generally more expansionary congressional fiscal policy are identified. Congressional budget deficits increase in response to increased rates of unemployment but are insensitive to increases in inflation. In contrast, presidential budgets are heavily influenced by inflation and the growth in personal income — increases in each resulting in smaller proposed deficits — as well as by unemployment rates. In years in which both unemployment and inflation are increasing, the combination of the two (assuming a one percentage point change in each) implies an increase in the congressional deficit of $6.7 billion but a decrease in the president's proposed deficit of $2.5 billion. The implications of this study are a challenge to the literature which makes the President the central actor in macro-economic policy.     

Pubertal Development, Choice of Friends, and Smoking Initiation among Adolescent Males

Prior research has indicated that pubertal development and peer associations are important determinants of adolescent smoking behavior. However, more remains to be learned about why these variables matter or how they may be related to one another in ways that lead to the initiation of smoking. Using contractual data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, we consider the relationship between early pubertal development and associations with close friends who smoke, and smoking initiation among male youths. The results of the study reveal a link between advanced pubertal development and the initiation of smoking among boys, but we discover that the effect is indirect, mediated by a greater propensity of sexually mature males to forge friendships with peers who smoke. We also find that this propensity is greatest among the youngest adolescents in the sample, suggesting that the age of the respondent conditions the effects of pubertal development on the formation of friendships with peers who smoke.(Ph.D., The University of Texas at Austin), is an Assistant Professor at Washington State University at Vancouver. Her areas of interest include juvenile delinquency and substance abuse.(Ph.D., Rutgers: The State University of New Jersey) is an Assistant Professor at Westfield State College. Her area of interest is adolescent identity development.(Ph.D., The University of Texas at Austin) is an Associate Professor at the University of Portland. His areas of interest include biosocial models of adolescent problem behavior.     

The who, what, and why of risk adjustment: a technology on the cusp of adoption

Risk adjustment (RA) consists of a series of techniques that account for the health status of patients when predicting or explaining costs of health care for defined populations or for evaluating retrospectively the performance of providers who care for them. Although the federal government seems to have settled on an approach to RA for Medicare Advantage programs, adoption and implementation of RA techniques elsewhere have proceeded much more slowly than was anticipated. This article examines factors affecting the adoption and use of RA outside the Medicare program using case studies in six U.S. health care markets (Baltimore, Seattle, Denver, Cleveland, Phoenix, and Atlanta) as of 2001. We found that for purchasing decisions, RA was used exclusively by public agencies. In the private sector, use of risk adjustment was uncommon and scattered and assumed informal and unexpected forms. The most common private sector use of RA was by health plans, which occasionally employed RA in negotiations with purchasers or to allocate resources internally among providers. The article uses classic technology diffusion theory to explain the adoption and use of RA in these six markets and derives lessons for health policy generally and for the future of RA in particular. For health policy generally, the differing experiences of public and private actors with RA serve as markers of the divergent paths that public and private health care sectors are pursuing with respect to managed care and risk sharing. For the future of RA in particular, its history suggests the need for health service researchers to consider barriers to use adoption and new analytic technologies as they develop them.     

Fishing for status: Impact of development on goa''s fisherwomen

An ignored but significant group in the local economy, female vendors of the traditional Kharvi fishing community in Goa, India have, in many ways, benefited from recent fisheries development. Their success in the markets has reinforced more egalitarian gender relations within fishing households, as well as affecting their class mobility and caste status in Goan society. Rather than being “victims” of technological development that has focused on fishermen, many Goan Catholic fisherwomen, in contrast to their Hindu counterparts, have made an economically successful transition from “barefoot, headload peddlers” in the villages to market entrepreneurs, working in small cooperative groups. The more complementary and egalitarian gender relations of fishing groups represent a reversal of the dominant patriarchal norms of Indian society. Ironically, the effects of economic success, education for the younger generation, and the withdrawal of Kharvi daughters from marketing activities may alter their economic and domestic independence and undermine more egalitarian gender relations in the future.