Qualitative comparative analysis vis-à-vis regression

Discussions of Charles C. Ragin’s Qualitative Comparative Analysis (QCA) have not adequately considered the assumptions about causation on which this method depends. Yet in evaluating any method, it is important to ask the question: How many untestable, or hard-to-test, assumptions must be met for us to believe the findings it produces? Advocates of QCA claim that one of its major strengths is that it requires fewer restrictive assumptions than techniques such as regression analysis. Hence, close assessment of the assumptions that are entailed is particularly salient to evaluating QCA. This article addresses these issues by considering three of the most important kinds of assumptions discussed in the context of regression analysis: assumptions about the correct form of the relationship, missing variables, and inferring causation from association. For each assumption, the role of corresponding assumptions in QCA will be explored and illustrated through an analysis of leftparty electoral fortunes in Latin America. Regarding the correct form of causal relationships, QCA in effect builds highly demanding assumptions into measurement procedures. Concerning missing variables, whereas earlier versions of QCA require a strong assumption of no causally relevant missing variables, more recent procedures allow some kinds of missing variables, but build in mutually contradictory statistical assumptions about those variables. Resolving these contradictions essentially converts QCA into an application of regression analysis. Regarding the process of inferring causation from association, QCA makes causal inference on the basis of patterns of association purely by assumption. That is, association is assumed to have a one-to-one relationship with causation. For all three groups of assumptions, QCA is found to require assumptions that, are at least as restrictive as those employed in regression analysis.     

Understanding Employee Turnover in the Public Sector: Insights from Research on Teacher Mobility

Employee turnover is a key area for public administration research, but one about which there is much still to be learned. Insights from an extensive body of research on employee turnover in a specific area of the public sector—public education—contributes to the understanding of employee mobility in public organizations more generally. The authors present a conceptual framework for understanding employee turnover that is grounded in economic theories of labor supply and demand, which have formed the foundation of many studies of teacher turnover. The main findings of this body of work are documented, noting connections to the literature on public employee turnover, lessons that can be learned, and potential new areas for empirical inquiry for scholars of turnover in the public sector.     

The Politics of Beauty: The Effects of Partisan Bias on Physical Attractiveness

Does politics cause people to be perceived as more or less attractive? As a type of social identity, party identifiers often exhibit in-group bias, positively evaluating members of their own party and, especially under conditions of competition, negatively evaluating out-party members. The current experiment tests whether political in-party and out-party status affects perceptions of the physical attractiveness of target persons. In a nationally representative internet sample of U.S. adults during the 2012 presidential election, we presented participants with photos of individuals and varied information about their presidential candidate preference. Results indicate that partisans, regardless of gender, rate target individuals as less attractive if they hold a dissimilar candidate preference. Female partisans, however, were more likely to rate target persons as more physically attractive when they held a similar candidate preference whereas no such effect was found for male partisans.     

Party Committee Targeting and the Evolution of Competition in US House Elections

This paper examines the effects of the increased role of party organizations in the recruitment and funding of congressional candidates in the US House post-1994. The recent uncertainty over which party will gain majority control of the House has transformed the role of party organizations in House campaigns. Despite the new resources devoted to each competitive seat in the House we find minimal changes in the overall competitiveness of US House elections. Additionally, the vast majority of potentially competitive seats do not draw a high quality challenger. Our results suggest that if parties recruited more quality candidates in the full range of these conceivably winnable seats this effort could produce more competitive seats or more seat turnover in the House.     

Northern Ireland’s Human Trafficking and Exploitation Act (2015): a preliminary assessment

‘Modern slavery’ has increasingly been recognised by policy-makers across the globe as a serious affront to the human rights of its victims, and an encroachment on the security of the international community. It typically, though not exclusively, thrives in conditions of poverty, economic and political instability and social disenfranchisement, and has a deleterious impact on the health and well-being of its victims, families and wider communities. The United Kingdom, and, more particularly, Northern Ireland, though relatively affluent, has not escaped the grasp of what can aptly be described as the ‘scourge’ of the twenty-first century. In view of the evolving dynamics of modern slavery, as well as both international and regional commitments calling for action to prevent the phenomenon, prosecute perpetrators and protect victims, Northern Ireland recently enacted its Human Trafficking and Exploitation Act (2015). Given that the Act has to date not been examined in the existing literature, this article aims to provide a critical preliminary assessment of its myriad provisions, in an effort to determine their relative strengths and weaknesses, as well as their likely impact in practice on ‘modern slavery’.     

The Cost of Majority‐Party Bias: Amending Activity under Structured Rules

All major legislation in the House necessitates a special rule from the Rules Committee before it can be brought to the chamber floor. These rules often strictly limit floor amendments to bills considered by the House. Scholars of political parties have argued that the House majority party can bias policy output away from the floor median through its usage of restrictive rules. In this article, we argue that in order to secure the passage of restrictive rules, the majority often makes concessions to centrist legislators through the amending process. We examine this theory using a newly collected data set that includes all amendments considered by the Rules Committee during the construction of structured rules in the 109th, 110th, and 111th Congresses (2005–2010). Our results are mixed, but they do suggest that moderate members of the majority party often receive concessions via amendments for their support of the majority party's agenda‐setting regime.     

The detection of clandestine graves in an arid environment using thermal imaging deployed from an unmanned aerial vehicle

The Middle East is one of the world regions that has frequently suffered from armed conflicts that resulted in mass burials. However, the detection of clandestine graves in such an arid environment by deploying remote sensing payload on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) has received little attention. The present study used a UAV equipped with a thermal sensor aimed at narrowing down the search area of possible gravesites in the arid climate of Kuwait. The enclosed research area, which includes both control and experimental mass graves, was imaged for 18 months. The variation in topsoil temperature and soil moisture between the graves and their surroundings was evaluated. The results of the analysis demonstrated the effectiveness of thermal imaging techniques in detecting heat produced from buried sheep carcasses and detecting the change in grave soil moisture for our research environment for 7 and 10 months, respectively. The buried animals significantly influenced the topsoil temperature (p = 0.044), while the height from which the images were captured had an insignificant effect on the measured temperature within the range tested (p = 0.985). Furthermore, there was a negative correlation (−0.359) between grave temperature and the calculated soil moisture. The results from these cost- and time-effective search methods presented in this study confirm their potential for the detection of burial sites in an arid environment.     

Determination of vehicle speed from recorded video using the open-source software Kinovea

Video devices of different kind often record traffic accidents, including vehicle-pedestrian collisions and hit-and-run accidents. In these cases, the vehicle speed is valuable information because it can assist the investigators in an accident reconstruction. This paper examines the use of Kinovea, an open-source video annotation tool designed for sport analysis, to estimate vehicle speed in forensic videos. Kinovea does not require a complex methodology, and it can be used to make the calculation easily. A series of vehicle driving experiments using an appropriately calibrated speed radar system (so called Scout Speed) were carried out, and measurements were compared with the estimated speed. In controlled conditions, the comparison of Scout reference speed and calculated average vehicle speed by means of Kinovea found an average difference of 0.43 km/h, with a margin of error of ±0.64 km/h. In addition, further preliminary tests were carried out to check the reliability of the measurements under lower resolution conditions. Also, in these cases the calculations were in line with the ground truth. Therefore, in the tested conditions, Kinovea demonstrated to be an easy and reliable tool available for forensic video examiners. Further tests need to be conducted in order to address the applicability of the measurement technique with true CCTV/surveillance video recordings.     

Development and validation of a LC–MS/MS method for analysis of vortioxetine in postmortem specimens. First data from an authentic case

Vortioxetine is an antidepressant recently licensed in USA and EU for the treatment of major depressive disorder. Neither fatal case due to overdose nor data about postmortem concentrations on blood or other specimens have been reported. The aims of this study were the development and validation of a method for vortioxetine analysis by Liquid Chromatography Tandem Mass Spectrometry (LC–MS/MS) in postmortem samples and its application in an authentic case. The method was validated and applied on blood, vitreous humor, bile, brain, liver, kidney, and gastric content. After protein precipitation, the supernatant was directly injected into LC–MS/MS. Analysis was carried out by Multiple Reaction Monitoring (MRM) mode. The authentic case concerned a 38 years-old woman, affected by depression, who was found hanged at home. The method determined an acceptable sensitivity, selectivity, linearity, precision, and accuracy for all matrices. No interference was shown for all matrices. The matrices do not significantly reduce the peak intensity of vortioxetine. No carryover was shown. Toxicological analysis of the authentic case showed vortioxetine in blood (234 ng/ml), vitreous humor (10.5 ng/ml), brain (490 ng/g), lung (479 ng/g), liver (3751 ng/g), kidney (798 ng/g), bile (2267 ng/ml) and gastric content (253 ng/ml). Our case suggests that even at blood concentrations of vortioxetine equal to 234 ng/ml, the subject was able to stage and carry out the hanging. Vortioxetine concentrations found in the other cadaveric samples (biological fluids, organs, and gastric content) may be helpful to evaluate further similar comparable cases.