Mobilizing the Seldom Voter: Campaign Contact and Effects in High-Profile Elections

Decades of research suggests that campaign contact together with an advantageous socioeconomic profile increases the likelihood of casting a ballot. Measurement and modeling handicaps permit a lingering uncertainty about campaign communication as a source of political mobilization however. Using data from a uniquely detailed telephone survey conducted in a pair of highly competitive 2002 U.S. Senate races, we further investigate who gets contacted, in what form, and with what effect. We conclude that even in high-profile, high-dollar races the most important determinant of voter turnout is vote history, but that holding this variable constant reveals a positive effect for campaign communication among “seldom” voters, registered but rarely active participants who—ironically—are less likely than regular or intermittent voters to receive such communication.

The prediction and control of organized crime: A risk assessment instrument for targeting law enforcement efforts

Linking isolated instances of organized crime in a systematic way can inform law enforcement in identifying high-risk activities and markets and prioritizing them according to objective factors known to be associated with organized crime. There are five ways in which risk assessment organized crime can be achieved. Improvements to data collection, utilizing a team approach to gather information, identifying common elements in organized crime incidents, understanding the parameters of a risk assessment instrument, and connecting organized crime risk assessment to the implementation of law and policy are practical ways in which organized crime activity can be better anticipated, investigated, and prevented. Connecting isolated incidents to organized crime through better information from offenders, victims, and police is possible with teams of investigators, researchers, and analysts. An organized crime risk assessment tool is presented that offers systematic analysis of opportunity factors, the criminal environment, and harm potential among the seventeen risk factors identified. Risk assessment can be used to evaluate the influence of organized crime in local jurisdictions, and the impact of new laws and policies that affect commerce and criminal opportunities.     

Putting ‘projectized’ development in perspective

The project approach to development assistance has been attacked for its inability to make results self-sustaining. This has been attributed to a short time horizon, an inability to pick up recurrent costs, and a tendency to either by-pass or fragment local institutions and therefore to neglect the need for local capacity building. At the same time, claims have been made that projects are politically advantageous due to quick high visibility results and they are useful instruments for experimentation, social learning and capacity building. This article examines both arguments and concludes that there is a need for radical changes in project development processes, but that there should not be a rush to abandon the project as an instrument for development.     

Urban growth in India: Demographic and sociocultural prospects

This paper explores some of the complexities of India’s urban growth since its first post-Independence census of 1951. Two levels of analysis are pursued as they affect one another: numerical or demographic changes, on one hand, and changes in living conditions, or sociocultural trends, on the other. The general conclusion of the study is that a process of “erosion” of traditional society is occurring, but it is occurring slowly— as a population more than twice the size of the entire United States continues to live in the countryside (and to increase at about twice the U.S. growth rate). Moreover, the sociocultural change is occurring in a non-linear fashion, as much that is traditional endures along side of the modern—rather than being replaced or obliterated by it. Finally, while the growth is occurring in cities of all sizes, the intermediate, regional capitals like Hyderabad and ahmedabad—rather than the largest cities such as Bombay or Calcutta—are experiencing the most rapid growth. Jay Weinstein is a professor of sociology and faculty research fellow at Eastern Michigan University. He has also taught at the University of Iowa (1972–77) and Georgia Institute of Technology (1977–86). He has been involved in comparative development studies for over twenty years, beginning with his Ph.D. fieldwork in India in 1971. His current interests include Canadian Studies and Eastern Europe. He visited Bulgaria in February–March, 1991 as a member of a U.S. Information Agency Citizen Exchange Project.     

A Comparison of uninformed and informed death penalty opinions: A replication and expansion

This study examines the influence on death penalty opinions of participating in a college class on the death penalty. Students in the class (the experimental group) and in another class offered at the same time (the control group) were asked to complete a questionnaire regarding their attitudes toward capital punishment at the beginning and at the end of the semester. They were also asked factual questions that measured their knowledge about capital punishment. Overall, the results of the study suggest that both groups were not well informed during the pretest measure. However, at the end of the semester, the group enrolled in the death penalty class were more knowledgable, less supportive of the death penalty based on general/absrtact questions, and more likely to favor alternatives to capital punishment than were the students in the control group.