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31.
Jeffrey Lazarus 《Political Behavior》2008,30(2):185-198
Politically experienced challengers are more successful in seeking political office than amateurs. The relationship is found
so regularly that political experience has become the standard ex ante indicator of challenger quality in studies of American elections. Despite this, little work has investigated why experienced challengers are so successful. Many scholars attribute the relationship to inherent differences between experienced
challengers and amateurs: experienced challengers have stronger electoral skills and greater access to material resources.
I argue that these differences play a role, but an indirect one. Rather, experienced challengers are lead by both their resource
advantage and the high amount of risk they are exposed to in seeking office to run in races in which their party has a good
chance of winning. Thus, the direct cause of the experienced challengers’ success is self-selection into winnable races. Empirical
analysis supports the self-selection model over a model in which resources directly lead to success.
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Jeffrey LazarusEmail: |
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After a lapse of 15 years under Stalin, parole was reintroduced into the Soviet Gulag in 1954. For justice officials anxious to expunge Stalin's repressive legacy, the resurrection of parole signalled a return to correctionalism, societal oversight over the Gulag, and a vastly reduced rate of incarceration. In practice, though, parole exposed significant continuities with the Stalinist Gulag, including endemic corruption, overwhelming concern with production, suspicion of outside interference in penal affairs, and constant upward pressure on the inmate population. In the broader view, the experience of parole in the post-war USSR aligned closely with that of the Western world. 相似文献
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Rogers Adam A. Padilla-Walker Laura M. McLean Ryan D. Hurst Jeffrey L. 《Journal of youth and adolescence》2020,49(1):136-149
Journal of Youth and Adolescence - Theory and research indicate considerable changes in parental control across adolescence (e.g., declining behavioral control), but the developmental course and... 相似文献
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Thomas T. Holyoke Jeffrey R. Henig Heath Brown Natalie Lacireno-Paquet 《Policy Sciences》2009,42(1):33-55
Baumgartner and Jones (1993) showed how radically new policies emerge on government agendas as a consequence of exogenous shocks to policy subsystems displacing privileged interests. But how do these policies evolve post-punctuation? In this paper, we present three different models of policy change. Policies may revert to the old status quo if displaced interests re-assert themselves, or they may be “locked-in” by new interests now reaping the benefits. Alternatively, they may incrementally change as lawmakers “learn” how to better meet target population needs, particularly by witnessing how other jurisdictions address similar problems. We test these models with data on change in state charter schools laws over time. We find that whether old status quos are overthrow, and the fate of charter policies when they are enacted, is influenced more by competing political interests, especially interest groups, than elite and public perceptions of broad systemic crises. Yet, we also find that changing demands on the state and learning from the successes and failures of neighboring states also play significant roles. 相似文献
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Jeffrey G. Karam 《Intelligence & National Security》2017,32(6):693-709
Why were American officials caught by surprise with the military coup and later revolution in Iraq on 14 July 1958? Drawing on American intelligence and diplomatic records as well as multilingual sources, this article argues that the US intelligence failure is the product of two factors: the collection of information from too few and too similar human sources of intelligence in Iraq’s ruling regime, and the unreceptivity of US officials to assessing new information and their unwillingness to update assessments of local Iraqi developments. It revisits America’s intelligence failure in Iraq and suggests important lessons for the study of intelligence. 相似文献