Evidence of Behavioural Compensation in Internal Replication Study of Male Circumcision Trial to Reduce HIV Acquisition in Kisumu,Kenya

We replicated the study ‘Male circumcision for HIV prevention in young men in Kisumu, Kenya: a randomised controlled trial’ using an epidemiological approach as well as an econometric approach. Both approaches confirmed the 60 per cent protective effect of circumcision reported in the original paper. Similar to the original paper, we found no evidence of heterogeneous treatment effects by age. Contrary to the original study, we found evidence of risk compensation, with circumcised men less likely to stay abstinent (odds ratio 0.79 [95% CI: 0.64, 0.99]) and more likely to have had unprotected intercourse (OR 1.2 [1.1, 1.4]). These findings reinforce the impact of circumcision but highlight behavioural risk.     

Seasonality,differential access and interlinking of labour and credit

This article explains the interlinking of rural labour and credit transactions in terms of differential access to credit markets and seasonality. A model is developed which incorporates not only seasonality and differential access but also several other explanations for interlinking suggested in the literature. Moreover, it allows one to test the sensitivity of the results to differing powers on the part of landowners relative to working households.     

The Islamic State and the New Tribalism

This article focuses on the apocalyptic zeitgeist of the Islamic State through the lens of what we call the New Tribalism. It finds that IS emerged from the Al Qaeda (AQ) milieu, but soon split with AQ as the messianic excitement surrounding Al-Baghdadi and his teachings grew. In common with previous millennial/messianic movements in all three “Peoples of the Book”—Judaism, Christianity, and Islam—IS soon evolved beyond the laws of the normative faith (antinomianism). We hold that for this reason, despite its claims of faith and fealty, IS has left the Islamic Umah behind, becoming a malign sectarian group of its own whose dynamism and successes are attracting a global audience and support from Muslims in almost every country. This helps to explain such abhorrent practices as forced conversion, sexual servitude, the destruction of historic artifacts, and mass executions. We find that the American invasion of Iraq was the vital first step in a series of events, which gave birth to IS. A thorough review of IS history and political culture traces these historic moments in time.     

Manpower and Counterinsurgency: Empirical Foundations for Theory and Doctrine

How does manpower affect counterinsurgency? Important debates about counterinsurgency theory, military doctrine, force planning, and ongoing military operations revolve around assumptions about the role manpower plays in determining counterinsurgency outcomes. But these assumptions have not, by and large, been subjected to large-n analysis. This paper helps serve that role by examining new data on counterinsurgents’ deployments across 171 campaigns since World War I. These data provide insight into a range of important issues, such as how force size should be measured, whether it is related to counterinsurgent success, whether troop nationality matters, and whether the role of manpower varies across contexts. Of these findings, the most notable is that conventional rules of thumb for force sizing, including the recommendation put forth in official US military doctrine, receive no empirical support. These findings therefore challenge the prevailing wisdom, while laying the groundwork for a range of future scholarship.     

Personnel management and productivity reform: Taming the civil service in Great Britain and the United States

This paper examines recent efforts to improve public sector productivity through reform of personnel systems and processes in Great Britain and the United States. Productivity efforts in both countries have been stimulated by and implemented in highly politicized environments. They have been attempts to secure the values of not only economy and efficiency, but also executive leadership and political responsiveness. The implications of these productivity reforms for the performance and character of the public service have been only dimly understood.     

Information systems and organizational development: Meeting the demands of information resource management in the twenty-first century

The central thesis of this article is that organizations in the twenty-first century will pursue the full benefits of information system technology by moving beyond a narrow focus on the technological dimensions to consider attendant managerial and policy issues. The challenges to establishing and implementing a coherent philosophy to guide information resource management are novel and difficult, but not unyielding. The application of organizational development techniques holds great potential to surmount these obstacles and may provide organizations with significant advantages from developments in computing technology in the twenty-first century. Evidence suggests that leading edge organizations are turning toward an integrated approach to Information Resource Management.

The benefits that advances in computer and information system technology offer to organizations in the twenty-first century seem indisputable, but whether organizations will actually achieve them, however, seems very much in question. The thesis of this article is that if organizations of the future are to garner full benefits from dramatic improvements in computing technology, they must develop a coherent philosophy for Information Resource Management (IRM). While the foundation for this philosophy rests on a strategy for integrating useful changes in computing technology into organizations, IRM must also encompass managerial and policy components. Yet, the field has been dominated by technological concerns, with only limited attention devoted to the other key dimensions.

In this article we propose a tripartite approach to information system adoption and implementation focusing on the technical, managerial, and policy dimensions. For Information System (IS) advantages to be fully realized, organizations must find ways to balance the demands of each of these components. Though these challenges should not be minimized, the article concludes that proven techniques from the field of organizational development can be brought to bear to deal with them constructively. Organizations that do so will very likely be rewarded with the substantial benefits that changes in computing and information system technology promise for the twenty-first century.     

The strategic management of workplace diversity initiatives: Public sector implications

Diversity initiatives have been and continue to be one of the most popular trends in contemporary management practice. Motivations of key decision makers in organizations for diversity initiatives run the gamut from a sincere desire to be socially responsible to reluctant compliance with employment discrimination laws. However, even the most well-intentioned, well-designed diversity programs can run into unanticipated problems. This paper utilizes two actual case studies to explore some of the controversies managers can expect when dealing with diversity and provides recommendations for the strategic conceptualization and management of diversity.     

Contributors

Abstract

Socioeconomic data supplied by the FBI on the backgrounds of 280 known right‐ and left‐wing terrorists active in the United States during the late 1960s and early 1970s was tabulated. Isolating for right‐left affiliation, membership status, and gender, seven variables were examined and used to confirm prevailing assumptions regarding the socioeconomic status of right‐ versus left‐wing terrorists active during this period. Findings support clear socioeconomic differences between right‐wing and left‐wing terrorists and emphasize the dominant position of women within left‐wing organizations. Surprising evidence revealed that considerable class differences exist within right‐wing groups between rank‐and‐file members and the leadership core.     

Agents for Stability or Chaos: Conceptualizing Intelligence “Relevance” in Counterinsurgency

Recent discussions among U.S. officials about how the intelligence community can demonstrate its “relevance” to counterinsurgency have been dominated by an ideology that presupposes large-scale military intervention, and in which the role of intelligence is limited to improving analysis in support of current military activities, with little debate of future requirements. This article will highlight a number of alternative conceptions of intelligence “relevance” to counterinsurgency, based on a study of several historical and contemporary U.S. and non-U.S. cases, and by applying a wider definition of counterinsurgency that includes cases where the military plays a subordinate role relative to the intelligence services.