Sentencing Using Statistical Treatment Rules: What We Don’t Know Can Hurt Us

The existing literature seriously misinterprets the available evidence on the predictability of high rate criminal offending and thus the potential value of statistical treatment rules that impose stiffer punishments on offenders with higher predicted risk of recidivism. The misinterpretation results from the failure to take account of the fact that the data used in existing risk assessment exercises come from environments characterized by informal (and sometimes formal) attempts by judges and other actors to base penal treatments on expected recidivism. Findings of little or no predictive power for baseline covariates may simply indicate the efficient use of the available information. We lay out the problem in detail, provide examples from several literatures and then consider general solutions to the problem.

The Impact of the 1994 Federal Assault Weapon Ban on Gun Violence Outcomes: An Assessment of Multiple Outcome Measures and Some Lessons for Policy Evaluation

The Federal Violent Crime Control and Law Enforcement Act of 1994 bans a group of military-style semiautomatic firearms (i.e., assault weapons) and ammunition magazines capable of holding more than 10 rounds. Ban advocates argue that these weapons are particularly dangerous because they facilitate the rapid firing of high numbers of shots. Though the banned guns and magazines were used in only a modest fraction of gun crimes before the law, it was hypothesized that a decrease in their use might reduce gunshot victimizations, particularly those involving multiple wounds and/or victims. In response to a Congressional mandate for an impact assessment of the law, this study utilized national and local data sources and a variety of analytical techniques to examine the ban's short-term impact on gun violence. The ban may have contributed to a reduction in gun homicides, but a statistical power analysis of our model indicated that any likely impact from the ban will be very difficult to detect statistically for several more years. We found no evidence of reductions in multiple-victim gun homicides or multiple-gunshot wound victimizations. The findings should be treated cautiously due to the methodological difficulties of making a short-term assessment of the ban and because the ban's long-term effects could differ from the short-term impacts revealed by this study.     

Ancestral Variation in Orbital Rim Shape: A Three‐Dimensional Pilot Study

Traditional nonmetric methods of ancestry assessment posit orbital rim shape varies among ancestral groups. This pilot study uses morphometric analysis of 3D orbital variation to test discrimination among individuals of primarily European, African, and Asian ancestry. Although the size and nature of the sample analyzed limit inferences for other samples, principal components analysis suggests ancestry has a significant effect on rim shape (p = 2.93e‐04). European orbits display more marked folding of the orbit in the sagittal plane than either African or Asian orbits, while the lateral margin of African orbits lies further posterior relative to the medial margin when compared to Asian orbits. The findings suggest curviplanar relationships are the most ancestrally informative aspect of orbital rim shape; these relationships may be distorted by perspective based on orientation of the skull relative to the viewer in traditional nonmetric analyses. Additional studies on geometric morphometric approaches to ancestry assessment are therefore warranted.     

Conducting Veteran Dependency and Indemnity Compensation Exams: Establishing a Nexus Between Mental Health and Death

Forms of financial compensation have been paid to the beneficiaries of deceased service members since the Revolutionary War. In its current version, Dependency and Indemnity Compensation (DIC) is a tax-free monetary benefit paid to eligible survivors of veterans whose death resulted from a service-related disability. Mental health professionals are called upon to provide medico-legal opinions in DIC claims involving questions of whether a veteran’s service-connected mental illness contributed substantially to their death. The U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) does not currently employ training programs, competency standards, or best practice recommendations for these specialized evaluations. This article seeks to fill this gap and provide a resource for mental health professionals providing medical opinions in DIC claims.     

Universal Citizenship Through the Discourse and Policy of Rafael Correa

This article investigates political opportunities and constraints associated with incorporating the concept of universal citizenship into migration debates. Analyzing the speeches of Ecuador's president Rafael Correa over eight years, the article argues that Correa strategically crafted a narrative of universal citizenship to undergird politically beneficial policies. Political constraints from constituents and rivals, and the populist nature of his governing style, hollowed out progressive migration policy innovations to the point that universal citizenship became a rhetorical device more than a substantive policy agenda. Through this empirical case, the article develops a more nuanced critical understanding of universal citizenship discourses as sites for negotiating the relationship between states and migrants.     

Legislative Transparency and Credit Risk

Open governance requirements are designed to improve accountability, which implies that transparent governments are more trustworthy stewards of their publicly invested power. However, transparency may also reduce institutional effectiveness and inhibit political compromise, diminishing the capacity to manage resources responsibly. We assess empirical support for these competing perspectives in the context of American state legislatures, many of which have become exempt from state sunshine laws in recent decades. We leverage variation in the timing of these legislative exemptions to identify the effect of removing transparency in a crucial governing institution on investors’ risk perceptions of states’ general obligation bonds. Our analysis of these data during the period 1995–2010 suggests that removing legislative transparency reduces state credit risk. We conclude that while openness in government may be normatively desirable, shielding legislative proceedings from public view may actually be better for states’ debt repayment capacity, improving their overall fiscal health.