The Statistical Properties and Empirical Performance of Double Regression

Voting rights litigation requires ecological inference to estimatethe voting preferences of minority and nonminority groups withinthe electorate. Double regression has been the procedure mostcommonly employed for this purpose. This article presents thefirst formal examination of this procedure. The underlying structuralmodel reveals that double regression estimators are neitherunbiased nor consistent estimators of true within-group votepreferences or polarization. Simulations demonstrate that theycan substantially exaggerate the differences between minorityand nonminority vote choices when none are present, and dramaticallyunderstate them when differences exist. In sum, double regressioncannot meet conventional statistical standards for reliability.Consequently, it should be abandoned.     

Sentencing Using Statistical Treatment Rules: What We Don’t Know Can Hurt Us

The existing literature seriously misinterprets the available evidence on the predictability of high rate criminal offending and thus the potential value of statistical treatment rules that impose stiffer punishments on offenders with higher predicted risk of recidivism. The misinterpretation results from the failure to take account of the fact that the data used in existing risk assessment exercises come from environments characterized by informal (and sometimes formal) attempts by judges and other actors to base penal treatments on expected recidivism. Findings of little or no predictive power for baseline covariates may simply indicate the efficient use of the available information. We lay out the problem in detail, provide examples from several literatures and then consider general solutions to the problem.

Social disorganization, Latinos and juvenile crime in the Texas borderlands

Purpose

Using a time-series cross-sectional design, we estimated the effects of social disorganization on juvenile property crime rates in a predominately Latino, Texas-Mexico border region.

Methods

Eighteen years of data from seven independent sources (Bureau of Economic Analysis, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Census Bureau, Texas State Demographer, Internal Revenue Service, Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, and Uniform Crime Reports) were examined. Counties were utilized as the unit of analysis, and time-series cross-sectional regression models were estimated.

Results

The analysis showed that per capita income was negatively related to juvenile crime in both rural and urban counties. Ethnic heterogeneity was positively related to the outcome in rural, but not urban, counties; while percent foreign-born was negatively related to juvenile crime in urban, but not rural, counties.

Conclusions

The Latino experience, both native- and foreign-born, is important for improving our understanding how economic and social conditions relate to crime. Comparative analyses between distinct geographical environments, such as rural and urban counties, can yield insight how the local context interacts with social disorganization processes.     

A test for carrion fly full siblings: a tool for detecting postmortem relocation of a corpse

We propose a genetic test for full sibship for a pair of carrion flies that could reveal the postmortem relocation of a corpse. A carrion fly larva is sometimes left behind when a corpse is moved. The discovery of full sibling larvae of approximately the same developmental stage at two locations would strongly suggest that a corpse was moved between those two sites. Distributions of pairwise comparisons of relatedness (R) coefficients were generated using amplified fragment length polymorphism profiles for nine samples of laboratory-generated full siblings as well as for a reference sample of nonfull sibling Phormia regina (Diptera: Calliphoridae). The mean relative R coefficient, a pairwise measure of the proportion of shared alleles, was 0.479 (±0.289 SD) for full siblings, close to the theoretical expectation of 0.5. A likelihood ratio (LR) test was based on observed distributions of R. R >0.55 corresponded to an LR >1000 favoring full sibship for that pair of individuals.     

Pathologic evaluation of the cervical spine following surgical and chiropractic interventions

When patients die after chiropractic or surgical interventions of the cervical spine, pathologists tasked with the autopsy are frequently overwhelmed by the complicated anatomy, laborious dissections, complex operative procedures and surgical hardware, and the necessity to differentiate artifacts from trauma and disease. However, abundant data can be obtained from careful evaluation of the cervical spine in situ; extensive postmortem diagnostic imaging procedures; detailed dissections of the removed, formalin-fixed and decalcified spine; and histology. This study presents a regimented, stepwise approach to the evaluation of the cervical spine in these difficult cases, promotes uniform assessment, facilitates diagnoses, and supports the accumulation of otherwise hard-to-come-by reference material that can be of value in future cases. The resultant detailed autopsy findings may prove useful in the medico-legal death investigation process. Autopsy findings may also be of great value to health care providers involved in quality assurance processes.     

The Salience of Social Contextual Factors in Appraisals of Police Interactions with Citizens: A Randomized Factorial Experiment

Objectives

Prior research indicates that public assessments of the manner in which the police exercise their authority are a key antecedent of judgments about the legitimacy of the police. In this study, the importance of context in influencing people’s assessment of police wrongdoing is examined.

Methods

A randomized factorial experiment was used to test how respondents perceive and evaluate police–citizens interactions along a range of types of situations and encounters. 1,361 subjects were surveyed on factors hypothesized to be salient influences on how citizens perceive and evaluate citizen interactions with police. Subjects viewed videos of actual police–citizen encounters and were asked for their evaluations of these observed encounters. Contextual primes were used to focus subjects on particular aspects of the context within which the encounter occurs.

Results

Structural equation models revealed that social contextual framing factors, such as the climate of police–community relations and the legality of the stop that led to the encounter, influence citizen appraisals of police behavior with effects comparable in size to and even larger than demographic variables such as education, race, and income.

Conclusions

These results suggest that the understandings and perceptions that people bring to a situation are important determinants of their assessment of police fairness. The police can positively influence citizen interpretations of police actions by striving to create a climate of positive police–community relationships in cities.