Committed or Conditional Democrats? Opposition Dynamics in Electoral Autocracies

In electoral autocracies, opposition coalition formation offers the best hope of getting to democracy. Yet forming electoral coalitions also entails convincing opposition voters to ignore compromises and engage in the cross‐party voting necessary for opposition victory. To what extent are voters committed to defeating the autocratic incumbent even if it would result in dislikable outcomes? A survey experiment in Malaysia finds that opposition voters overwhelmingly express pretreatment support for the opposition coalition. But when exposed to a treatment vignette about which member party might lead the next government, many voters retract their support. Specifically, voters’ support for the coalition declines when their least preferred member is expected to control the government and when they can vote for a closer ideological alternative outside of the coalition. Although voters are committed to opposition unity and democratic transition, that commitment is sensitive to the anticipated consequences of an opposition victory.     

Health service utilization among widows living with HIV/AIDS: an interview survey in Manipur, India

Widows living with HIV/AIDS (WLHA) are a vulnerable and often overlooked group. The North Eastern Indian state of Manipur, which has one of the highest concentrations of HIV/AIDS cases in India, is not an exception. This paper aims to describe the pattern of and factors contributing to the use of health services by WLHA in Manipur. Structured face-to-face interviews were conducted among 510 respondents. Only 49% of the respondents were aware of available health facilities. The place of residence (67.8%) and appointment at a convenient time (70.8%) were the main factors affecting the use of health services. To improve access to health services, it is imperative that the services of trained health providers are made easily available. Policy makers and organizations working on HIV/AIDs should work together to remove the barriers to the use of health services, making them user friendly for vulnerable groups such as WLHA.     

A validation study for vinyl electrical tape end matches

Fracture matches are considered the strongest conclusion in the forensic examination of rigid materials, such as glass, metal, and paint. However, publications that support the fracture matching of polymeric films, such as tape backings, are limited. This study was designed to determine the validity and error rate associated with conducting end-match (fracture match) examinations on vinyl electrical tape. Test designs varied the source roll of tape, test preparer, or mode of separation from the roll. Results indicated that each affected the resulting severed tape ends. The analysts examining the end matches also had an effect on the results. Eight end matches in the study were not identified by the initial analysts and were considered inconclusive. One end match was misidentified, resulting in one false positive and an error rate of 0.049%. These results support a comprehensive physical and chemical tape comparison regardless of indications of an end match.     

Crisis intervention team officer dispatch, assessment, and disposition: Interactions with individuals with severe mental illness

The Crisis Intervention Team (CIT) model is a specialized police response program for people in a mental illness crisis. We analyzed 2174 CIT officers' reports from one community, which were completed during a five year period. These officers' reports described interactions with people presumed to be in a mental illness crisis. We used hierarchical logistic and multinomial regression analyses to compare transport to treatment to either transport to jail or no transport by how the calls were dispatched. The results revealed that both dispatch codes and officers' on-scene assessments influenced transport decisions. Specifically, calls dispatched as suspected suicide were more likely to be transported to treatment than calls dispatched as mental disturbance. Furthermore, calls dispatched as calls for assistance, disturbance, suspicious person, assault, suspicion of a crime, and to meet a citizen were all less likely than mental disturbance calls to result in transportation to treatment. Officer assessments of the use of substances, being off medications, signs and symptoms of mental or physical illness, and violence to self or others were associated with the likelihood of being transported to treatment. These results build on previous work that demonstrated differences in transport decisions between CIT trained and non-CIT trained officers.     

Simply Criminal: Predicting Burglars’ Occupancy Decisions with a Simple Heuristic

Rational choice theories of criminal decision making assume that offenders weight and integrate multiple cues when making decisions (i.e., are compensatory). We tested this assumption by comparing how well a compensatory strategy called Franklin’s Rule captured burglars’ decision policies regarding residence occupancy compared to a non-compensatory strategy (i.e., Matching Heuristic). Forty burglars each decided on the occupancy of 20 randomly selected photographs of residences (for which actual occupancy was known when the photo was taken). Participants also provided open-ended reports on the cues that influenced their decisions in each case, and then rated the importance of eight cues (e.g., deadbolt visible) over all decisions. Burglars predicted occupancy beyond chance levels. The Matching Heuristic was a significantly better predictor of burglars’ decisions than Franklin’s Rule, and cue use in the Matching Heuristic better corresponded to the cue ecological validities in the environment than cue use in Franklin’s Rule. The most important cue in burglars’ models was also the most ecologically valid or predictive of actual occupancy (i.e., vehicle present). The majority of burglars correctly identified the most important cue in their models, and the open-ended technique showed greater correspondence between self-reported and captured cue use than the rating over decision technique. Our findings support a limited rationality perspective to understanding criminal decision making, and have implications for crime prevention.     

Operational benefits and challenges of the use of fingerprint statistical models: a field study

Research projects aimed at proposing fingerprint statistical models based on the likelihood ratio framework have shown that low quality finger impressions left on crime scenes may have significant evidential value. These impressions are currently either not recovered, considered to be of no value when first analyzed by fingerprint examiners, or lead to inconclusive results when compared to control prints. There are growing concerns within the fingerprint community that recovering and examining these low quality impressions will result in a significant increase of the workload of fingerprint units and ultimately of the number of backlogged cases. This study was designed to measure the number of impressions currently not recovered or not considered for examination, and to assess the usefulness of these impressions in terms of the number of additional detections that would result from their examination.     

Carcass mass can influence rate of decomposition and release of ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen into gravesoil

To investigate the use of ninhydrin-reactive nitrogen (NRN) in gravesoil to estimate early postmortem interval (PMI), we conducted an experiment to decompose swine (Sus scrofa) carcasses of contrasting mass (～1 kg, ～20 kg, ～40 kg, ～50 kg). Carcasses were placed on the soil surface during June 2007 to monitor mass loss and the concentration of gravesoil NRN over an interval of 15 days. Carcasses of a mass ≤ 20 kg decomposed more rapidly than larger carcasses. However, 1 kg carcasses were associated with a slower release of NRN into gravesoil but a greater concentration of NRN per kg carcass (NRN(C)). We conclude that carcass mass can affect the rate of decomposition and release of NRN into gravesoil, which reflects an interaction between carcass volume and blow fly colonization. Furthermore, we conclude that neonatal carcasses require a different equation than larger carcasses when using gravesoil chemistry to estimate PMI.     

How Do Police Respond to Stalking? An Examination of the Risk Management Strategies and Tactics Used in a Specialized Anti-Stalking Law Enforcement Unit

How do police respond to and manage complaints of stalking? To answer this question, we conducted a 3-phase study. First, we reviewed the literature to identify risk management tactics used to combat stalking. Second, we asked a group of police officers to review those tactics for completeness and group them into categories reflecting more general risk management strategies. The result was 22 categories of strategies. Finally, we used qualitative methods to evaluate the files of 32 cases referred to the specialized anti-stalking unit of a metropolitan police department. We coded specific risk management tactics and strategies used by police. Results indicated that a median number of 19 specific tactics from 7 general strategies were used to manage risk. Also, the implementation of strategies and tactics reflected specific characteristics of the cases (e.g., perpetrator risk factors, victim vulnerability factors), suggesting that the risk management decisions made by police were indeed strategic in nature. Qualitative analyses indicated that some of the strategies and tactics were more effective than others. We discuss how these findings can be used to understand and use stalking risk management more generally, as well as improve research on the efficacy of risk assessment and management for stalking.     

Is childhood physical abuse associated with peptic ulcer disease? Findings from a population-based study

This study investigated childhood physical abuse and ulcers in a regionally representative community sample. Age, race and sex were controlled for in addition to five clusters of potentially confounding factors: adverse childhood conditions, adult socioeconomic status, current health behaviors, current stress and marital status, and history of mood/anxiety disorders. Childhood physical abuse is associated with many negative physical and psychological adult health outcomes. Two recent studies demonstrate a potential link between childhood physical abuse and peptic ulcer disease in adulthood. The authors use regional data for the Canadian provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan from the 2005 Canadian Community Health Survey. Of the 13,069 respondents with complete data on abuse and ulcers, 7.3% (n = 1,020) report that they had been physically abused as a child by someone close to them and 3.0% (n = 493) report that they had been diagnosed with peptic ulcers by a health professional. The regional response rate is approximately 84%. Findings show that those reporting abuse had more than twice the prevalence of ulcers than did those not reporting abuse (6.6% vs. 2.7%). The fully adjusted odd ratio of peptic ulcers among those who had reported childhood physical abuse is 1.68 (95% CI = 1.22, 2.32). A significant and stable relationship between childhood physical abuse and peptic ulcers is found, even when taking into account five clusters of potentially confounding factors. Prospective studies that apply the biopsychosocial model are likely to be the most effective for identifying the pathways that connect childhood physical abuse and ulcer disease.     

What attracts men who batter to their partners? An exploratory study

Men who batter, because of particular personality traits and sense of entitlement, may select partners whom they perceive will be dependent on them, meet their emotional needs, or be "objects" of physical attractiveness. During treatment intake, 181 offenders responded to the question, "What attracted you to her (your partner)?" We explored whether men who mentioned their own needs or her physical traits would engage in more frequent and severe violence and would have specific forms of personality disorder dimensions or personality traits. Six categories of attraction, including "her physical traits" and "his needs," were derived from the men's responses. The results showed that men who focused on their partners' physical attractiveness were more likely to be violent after treatment. Men who cited their own needs for their attraction had higher scores on borderline personality, alcohol abuse, and psychotic thinking and lower scores on compulsive-conforming.