Urban crime rates and the changing face of immigration: Evidence across four decades

Research has shown little support for the enduring proposition that increases in immigration are associated with increases in crime. Although classical criminological and neoclassical economic theories would predict immigration to increase crime, most empirical research shows quite the opposite. We investigate the immigration-crime relationship among metropolitan areas over a 40 year period from 1970 to 2010. Our goal is to describe the ongoing and changing association between immigration and a broad range of violent and property crimes. Our results indicate that immigration is consistently linked to decreases in violent (e.g., murder) and property (e.g., burglary) crime throughout the time period.     

Does GPS supervision of intimate partner violence defendants reduce pretrial misconduct? Evidence from a quasi-experimental study

Objectives

This research examines the effect global positioning system (GPS) technology supervision has on pretrial misconduct for defendants facing intimate partner violence charges.

Methods

Drawing on data from one pretrial services division, a retrospective quasi-experimental design was constructed to examine failure to appear to court, failure to appear to meetings with pretrial services, and rearrest outcomes between defendants ordered to pretrial GPS supervision and a comparison group of defendants ordered to pretrial supervision without the use of monitoring technology. Cox regression models were used to assess differences between quasi-experimental conditions. To enhance internal validity and mitigate model dependence, we utilized and compared results across four counterfactual comparison groups (propensity score matching, Mahalanobis distance matching, inverse probability of treatment weighting, and marginal mean weighting through stratification).

Results

Pretrial GPS supervision was no more or less effective than traditional, non-technology based pretrial supervision in reducing the risk of failure to appear to court or the risk of rearrest. GPS supervision did reduce the risk of failing to appear to meetings with pretrial services staff.

Conclusions

The results suggest that GPS supervision may hold untapped case management benefits for pretrial probation officers, a pragmatic focus that may be overshadowed by efforts to mitigate the risk of pretrial misconduct. Further, the results contribute to ongoing discussions on bail reform, pretrial practice, and the movement to reduce local jail populations. Although the cost savings are not entirely clear, relatively higher risk defendants can be managed in the community and produce outcomes that are comparable to other defendants. The results also call into question the ability of matching procedures to construct appropriate counterfactuals in an era where risk assessment informs criminal justice decision-making. Weighting techniques outperformed matching strategies.

     

Disrupting Daesh: Measuring Takedown of Online Terrorist Material and Its Impacts

Abstract

This article contributes to public and policy debates on the value of social media disruption activity with respect to terrorist material. In particular, it explores aggressive account and content takedown, with the aim of accurately measuring this activity and its impacts. The major emphasis of the analysis is the so-called Islamic State (IS) and disruption of their online activity, but a catchall “Other Jihadi” category is also utilized for comparison purposes. Our findings challenge the notion that Twitter remains a conducive space for pro-IS accounts and communities to flourish. However, not all jihadists on Twitter are subject to the same high levels of disruption as IS, and we show that there is differential disruption taking place. IS’s and other jihadists’ online activity was never solely restricted to Twitter; it is just one node in a wider jihadist social media ecology. This is described and some preliminary analysis of disruption trends in this area supplied too.     

Is There a Culture or Religion of Torture? International Support for Brutal Treatment of Suspected Terrorists

Do certain cultures or religions predispose citizens to support the deployment of torture against suspected terrorists? Based on an international survey of 31 different countries, we examine how religion and culture affect respondents' position on torture. We find that at the individual level, the nonreligious are resolutely opposed to torture, and that Christians, Buddhists, Hindus, Jews, and other faiths are more supportive. Among world cultures, Muslim/African cultures are most opposed to the torture of terrorists, while Confucian, English-speaking, and South Asian cultures are the most supportive of it. We also find that the use of torture has less support in countries that are suffering from terrorism, once religion and culture are considered.     

Blogs and the Attention Market for Public Intellectuals

Public intellectuals are successful suppliers of commentary in the attention market for serious thought. Blogs are a relatively new technology that substantially alters this market. More people can now nurse aspirations to be public intellectuals, but blogs also make plain the difficulties of actually reaching a public in ways that books do not. Blogs also vitiate other romantic ideas about the public intellectual as transcendent figure. Even so, blogs may well provide the services for which transcendent public intellectuals are often lauded better than these figures ever did.

Good Work, Honestly Done: ASPA at 70

This essay examines the history of ASPA from internal and external vantage points, showing how the organization has continually adapted to demands from within and competition from without. ASPA is rooted in Progressive Era reforms that professionalized government during the first half of the twentieth century, spawning numerous associations of public officials dedicated to enhancing expertise and integrity throughout the public service. Changes in membership, mission, structure, conferences, publications, commitment to ethics, and relationships with other like-minded associations are reviewed. Today, ASPA is an agile organization that represents a uniquely generalist orientation to public service professionalism while offering more services to its members within a competitive marketplace of public official associations.     

Fentanyl Detection Using Eosin Y Paper Assays,

Eosin Y is a potential new color test for use in detecting illicit drugs that has not been extensively studied. In the present study, a variety of drugs of abuse and fentanyl analogues were tested to determine which drugs will bind to eosin Y, which functional groups are capable of binding and eliciting a color change, and a mechanism for eosin Y binding to fentanyl. Further, these agents were combined with common cutting agents and other drugs of abuse in order to determine the fentanyl detection limit in a drug mixture using an eosin Y test strip. Additionally, cobalt thiocyanate was used to determine whether the combination of cobalt thiocyanate and eosin Y has the potential to identify fentanyl. Through the testing performed, we concluded that (i) Eosin Y is capable of detecting low amounts of fentanyl down to 1%, (ii) Eosin Y binds to select tertiary amines to produce an orange to pink color change, and (iii) Eosin Y binds to the nonpiperidine ring nitrogen of fentanyl as a primary binding site and the piperidine ring nitrogen as a secondary binding site. While the cobalt thiocyanate assay detected 1% fentanyl in some of the mixtures, eosin Y detected 1% fentanyl in all mixtures. Finally, eosin Y was able to detect fentanyl in forensic case samples containing heroin and various cutting agents. Based on our results, eosin Y has the potential to screen for fentanyl and fentanyl analogues and can detect fentanyl in low amounts when mixed with common cutting agents.     

What’s in a poll? Incentives for truthful reporting in pre-election opinion surveys

We examine the ability of pre-election polls to aggregate information about voter preferences. We show that if the electorate is small and voting costs are negligible, then an equilibrium exists in which citizens report their true political preferences. If the electorate is large or voting costs are significant, however, then no such equilibrium exists because poll respondents possess incentives to influence the voting behavior of others by misreporting their true preferences. We find that when a truthful equilibrium does exist, a poll can raise expected welfare by discouraging turnout among members of the minority.