What’s in a poll? Incentives for truthful reporting in pre-election opinion surveys

We examine the ability of pre-election polls to aggregate information about voter preferences. We show that if the electorate is small and voting costs are negligible, then an equilibrium exists in which citizens report their true political preferences. If the electorate is large or voting costs are significant, however, then no such equilibrium exists because poll respondents possess incentives to influence the voting behavior of others by misreporting their true preferences. We find that when a truthful equilibrium does exist, a poll can raise expected welfare by discouraging turnout among members of the minority.     

The Forgotten Regional Organizations: Creating Capacity for Economic Development

Government capacity helps explain variance in public sector organizations' performance, and measuring capacity helps identify deficiencies that may be addressed in order to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of these organizations. This study examines the capacity of regional economic development districts to leverage federal grant funds in the counties they serve, controlling for additional sources of potential capacity and demand for federal grants. A decade of data reflecting federal grant funding to counties in one state was compiled from the Federal Awards Data System and analyzed using pooled cross-sectional time-series analysis with panel-corrected standard errors. The results indicate that regional economic development districts demonstrate varied but significant capacity to leverage federal grant funds in the counties they serve. The results suggest that similarity in the purpose and structure of regional economic development districts within a state are not enough; we need to better understand the resources within the organization and the mission that determines how those resources are applied.     

Book reviews

Philip Towle, Enforced Disarmament: From the Napoleonic Campaigns to the Gulf War (Oxford: Clarendon Press, 1997), x + 268 pp., £35 (hb), ISBN 0-19-820636-4.

Paul K. Davis, 100 Decisive Battles: From Ancient Times to the Present (Oxford and Santa Barbara, CA: ABC-Clio, 2000), 474 pp., £59.95 (hb), ISBN 1-57607-0751.

David Nicholls, Napoleon: A Biographical Companion (Oxford: ABC-Clio, 2000), 340 pp., £29.95 (hb), ISBN 0-87436-957-6.

The Satow Siam Papers: The Private Diaries and Correspondence of Ernest Satow, vol. i, 1884-1885, introduced and edited by Nigel Brailey (Bangkok: The [Thai] Royal Historical Society, 1997), iv + 203 pp., price not obtainable, ISBN 974-89918-7-3.

Ernest Satow, C.M.G., A Diplomat in Siam: H.B.M. Minister-Resident, Bangkok, 1885-88, introduced and edited by Nigel Brailey (Bangkok: Orchid Press, rev. edn. 2000), 208 pp., price not obtainable, ISBN 074-8304-73-6.

John Lukacs, Five Days in London, May 1940 (New Haven CT: Yale University Press, 1999), viii + 236 pp., £12.95, ISBN 0-300-08030-1.     

Validation of Tool Mark Comparisons Obtained Using a Quantitative,Comparative, Statistical Algorithm

Abstract: A statistical analysis and computational algorithm for comparing pairs of tool marks via profilometry data is described. Empirical validation of the method is established through experiments based on tool marks made at selected fixed angles from 50 sequentially manufactured screwdriver tips. Results obtained from three different comparison scenarios are presented and are in agreement with experiential knowledge possessed by practicing examiners. Further comparisons between scores produced by the algorithm and visual assessments of the same tool mark pairs by professional tool mark examiners in a blind study in general show good agreement between the algorithm and human experts. In specific instances where the algorithm had difficulty in assessing a particular comparison pair, results obtained during the collaborative study with professional examiners suggest ways in which algorithm performance may be improved. It is concluded that the addition of contextual information when inputting data into the algorithm should result in better performance.     

Social disorganization, marriage, and reported crime: A spatial econometrics examination of family formation and criminal offending

It has long been documented that “marriage matters” for a variety of reasons. Furthermore, there has been considerable debate over the causal relationship between marriage and a number of its associated correlates, most often related to social processes of health behaviors, criminal involvement, and achievement. While most research associated with marriage and crime is concerned with the individual, little is understood concerning the ecological effect of marriage rates. Using data from the U.S. Census Bureau and the F.B.I.'s Uniform Crime Reporting Program (UCR), this study tests such relationships through the implementation of spatially-centered analytic approaches concerning the potential independent effects of marriage rates within a social disorganization context. It is important to understand such aggregate level effects in the face of the existing literature, which relies heavily on relational associations and is subject to ecological fallacy. Analytic techniques incorporate Exploratory Spatial Data Analysis (ESDA) and spatial regression.     

Locarno in the limelight

International IP treaties and conventions cover those that arehigh-profile, politically sensitive documents to those thatscarcely register on the consciousness of the average practitioner.The epitome of the former is TRIPs—the Agreement on Trade-RelatedIP Rights—which is rarely off the IP agenda. At the otherend of the scale can be found such rare creatures as the StresaConvention of 1953 on the use of names and designations of originsof     

Bootleggers,Baptists and ballots: coalitions in Arkansas’ alcohol-legalization elections

Public Choice - Yandle (Regulation 7(3):12–16, 1983) proposed a “bootleggers and Baptists” framework to explain political coalition formation. Using mandatory disclosure reports,...     

Fentanyl transdermal patches: Extraction and evaluation of a novel disposal method using NarcX®

Currently, there is no known commercially available product for disposing of used fentanyl transdermal patches. To eliminate the potential for harm and abuse, a proper disposal method is needed–one that neutralizes the dangerous amount of residual fentanyl that remains after therapeutic use of the fentanyl patch. The patent-pending liquid solution of activated carbon, known as NarcX^®, was investigated as a potential fentanyl adsorbing agent. In order to determine the amount of fentanyl remaining after a patch is treated with NarcX^®, here, we utilized hexanes to first dissolve the patch adhesive and then followed with liquid-liquid extraction with methanol to recover the fentanyl. Using liquid chromatography coupled to tandem mass spectrometry (LC/MS-MS), the extracts obtained with this method yielded between 85% and 117% recovery of fentanyl from new and unused patches. Further optimization of this method allowed for a quantitative evaluation of NarcX^®-treated fentanyl patches. 100 µg/h Apotex brand fentanyl patches were exposed to NarcX^® for 1, 24, 48, and 72 h. NarcX^® was shown to adsorb fentanyl from the patches with varying degrees of success, demonstrating an average of 66.98 ± 0.75% fentanyl adsorption after 72 h. These findings suggest that more work is needed to successfully neutralize the fentanyl patches in their entirety using NarcX^®; however, this work does demonstrate proof of concept.     

Pubertal timing and adolescent delinquency†

Early pubertal timing (PT) increases the risk of adolescent delinquency, whereas late development reduces this risk; however, the mechanisms explaining PT effects on delinquency remain elusive. Theoretically, the PT–delinquency relationship is as a result of changes in parental supervision, peer affiliations, and body-image perceptions or is a spurious reflection of early life risk factors. Using intergenerational data from the Millennium Cohort Study, a prospective sample of children followed from infancy to age 14 years in the United Kingdom (N = 11,556 parent–child pairs), we find that for both boys and girls, early PT is associated with heightened risks of delinquency, relative to on-time puberty, whereas late PT is associated with lower risks, even after controlling for a large share of childhood confounders. Mediation test results indicate that changes in parental supervision, peer affiliations, and body-image perceptions from ages 11 to 14 partly account for associations between off-time PT and delinquency. Our findings are most consistent with criminological theories in which the psychosocial, familial, and peer group changes that accompany off-time pubertal development are emphasized. Changes in peer substance use, in particular, were the primary explanatory factor for the relationships between early and late PT and delinquency, for both boys and girls.