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David P. Farrington Katherine M. Auty Jeremy W. Coid Richard E. Turner 《European Journal on Criminal Policy and Research》2013,19(2):135-151
In the Cambridge Study in Delinquent Development, over 400 London males have been followed up from age 8 to age 48 in face-to-face interviews and up to age 56 in criminal records. About 42 % of the males were convicted up to age 56. During five age ranges up to age 47, 94 % of the males admitted at least one of eight offenses, in comparison with 31 % who were convicted for at least one of these offenses in these age ranges. The prevalence of offending, and the number of offenses committed, decreased steadily after age 18 according to both convictions and self-reports. On average, there were 38 self-reported offenses per conviction, and this ratio also decreased with age. Convicted males self-reported 25 offenses per conviction on average. It is concluded that the “scaling-up factor” from convictions to self-reported offenses is very important, especially in evaluating the effectiveness of intervention programs. 相似文献
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A range of seemingly rival theories attempt to explain why some individuals take extraordinary risks by choosing to participate in armed conflict. To date, however, competing accounts have typically not been grounded in systematic, empirical studies of the determinants of participation. In this article, we begin to fill this gap through an examination of the determinants of participation in insurgent and counterinsurgent factions in Sierra Leone's civil war. We find some support for all of the competing theories, suggesting that the rivalry between them is artificial and that theoretical work has insufficiently explored the interaction of various recruitment strategies. At the same time, the empirical results challenge standard interpretations of grievance-based accounts of participation, as poverty, a lack of access to education, and political alienation predict participation in both rebellion and counterrebellion. Factors that are traditionally seen as indicators of grievance or frustration may instead proxy a for more general susceptibility to engage in violent action or a greater vulnerability to political manipulation by elites. 相似文献
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This essay examines the origins, development and current issues involving U.S. doctoral education in public administration by focusing particularly upon the DPA degree-—the first doctorate offered in the field. The article argues that the growth of the DPA coincided with the rapidly expanding needs for professionals in governmnt and the growth of American higher education in the postwar era. As a result, early DPA education contained a significant “professionalixing component” in its course work and dissertation research. The sharp public reactions against government professionals and professionalism in the late 1970s and 1980s combined with a new scientific research emphasis for doctoral education stressed by NASPAA's Comprehensive Schools Section, October 20, 1981, called into question the older professional assumptions upon which the DPA was created as a degree program. These trends now raise fundamental intellectual issues regarding its future and serve to fragment the once cohesive programmatic orientation of PA doctoral education today. 相似文献
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Jeremy Fielding 《Diplomacy & Statecraft》2000,11(1):163-188
The financial crisis of 1949 threatened to bankrupt Britain and destroy the American economic and political system constructed after 1945. The US government was unable to respond effectively to this challenge. Truman's administration was split, as the Treasury and State Departments advocated diametrically opposing responses. Only the secret British decision to devalue sterling, a judgement not shared with the Americans until much later, stopped Washington from offering aid packages to London that would have totally changed US postwar foreign, economic and strategic policies. Therefore, this episode questions the assertion that national security concerns dominated the American government in the early Cold War. 相似文献
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AbstractThis article explores the opportunities and conundrums of understanding violence at critical junctures following ruptures in political orders through the prism of political settlements. While there is an emerging body of scholarship on political settlements, we specifically examine its relationship to violence, which we argue has been under-theorised. Through comparative country case studies (Bangladesh, Egypt, Kenya, Sierra Leone), we examine in a historicised manner how these types of settlements interact with various forms of violence at various scales. The article reconceptualises political settlements in relation to three forms of violence, intrinsic, instrumental and resultant, and shows how multi-scale dynamics and formal/informal interactions shape the violent nature of political settlements in different contexts. 相似文献