Rapid economic development in Singapore and the future of the PAP

The economic development of Singapore has been such that it is frequently cited as a model for capitalist development. One of the most striking features of the Singapore development process has been its distributional consequences. Rapid economic growth has produced remarkably equitable outcomes and the average Singaporean has had little cause for complaint — or at least until recently. This article examines the latest trends with respect to inequality in Singapore, and attempts some assessment of the policy responses and the potential for social instability.     

Conference report

The apologetic literature on capitalist development has been quite unrelenting in its advocacy of free markets to produce “the right conditions” for economic growth. Invariably, however, the only freedom preserved under so-called free-market policies is the economic freedom of international capital to sell, invest, and repatriate profit. Furthermore, “a favourable investment climate” is created only with the systematic repression of unruly students, trade unionists, the free press, and other democratic processes. Dubbed as a necessary precondition for industrialisation, and vindicated by outsiders in the West, many states in the Third World readily accede to the stern government that is necessary to implement these market-oriented policies. It is this issue that provides the focus of debate in this paper, and special attention is devoted to the experience of Singapore under Lee Kuan Yew.     

A Comparison of Logistic Regression,Classification and Regression Tree,and Neural Networks Models in Predicting Violent Re-Offending

Previous studies that have compared logistic regression (LR), classification and regression tree (CART), and neural networks (NNs) models for their predictive validity have shown inconsistent results in demonstrating superiority of any one model. The three models were tested in a prospective sample of 1225 UK male prisoners followed up for a mean of 3.31 years after release. Items in a widely-used risk assessment instrument (the Historical, Clinical, Risk Management-20, or HCR-20) were used as predictors and violent reconvictions as outcome. Multi-validation procedure was used to reduce sampling error in reporting the predictive accuracy. The low base rate was controlled by using different measures in the three models to minimize prediction error and achieve a more balanced classification. Overall accuracy of the three models varied between 0.59 and 0.67, with an overall AUC range of 0.65–0.72. Although the performance of NNs was slightly better than that of LR and CART models, it did not demonstrate a significant improvement.     

The situation in Iraq

General

The Global Politics of Arms Sales. By Andrew J. Pierre. Princeton University Press, 1982. Pp. xvi + 352. Figs. Tables. Notes. Index. £14.10 (hardback); £4.20 (paperback).

Estimating Foreign Military Power. Edited by Philip Towle. London (Croom Helm), 1982. Pp. 276. Index. £13.95.

Eurasia

The Cambridge Encyclopedia of Russia and the Soviet Union. General Editors Archie Brown, John Fennell, Michael Kaser and H. T. Willetts. Cambridge University Press, 1982. Pp. 482. Bibliog. Index. Illus. £18.50 (hardback).

Central Asia

Trespassers on the Roof of the World: The Race for Lhasa. By Peter Hopkirk. London, John Murray, 1982. Pp. x + 274. Illus. Maps. Bibliog. Index. £9.75.

South Asia

India's Preferential Policies: Migrants, the Middle Classes, and Ethnic Equality. By Myron Weiner and Mary Fainsod Katzenstein. The University of Chicago Press, 1981. Pp. vii + 184. Tables. Maps. Notes. Index. £9.95.

Pakistan: Energy Planning in a Strategic Vortex. By Charles K. Ebinger. Indiana University Press, 1981. Pp. x + 155. Notes. Bibliog. £13.50.

The British Raj and the Indian Princes: Paramountcy in Western India, 1857–1930. By Ian Copland. London, Sangam Books, 1982. Pp. xvi + 345. Map. Bibliog. Index. £6.95.

British Policy Towards the Indian States 1905–1939. By S. R. Ashton. London, Curzon Press (London Studies on South Asia No. 2) 1982. Pp. xii + 231. Appendix. Gloss. Bibliog. Index. £6.75.

Goa. By J. M. Richards. London, Hurst &; Co., 1982. Pp. xii + 143. Map. Illus. Plates. Bibliog. Index. £7.50.

The India Museum 1801–1879 (India Office Library and Records). By Ray Desmond. London, H.M.S.O., 1982. Pp. xv + 215. Plates. Index. £25.00

The Arts of India. Edited by Basil Gray. Oxford, Phaidon Press, 1981. Pp. 224. Map. Illus. Bibliog. Index. £25.00

Views of Medieval Bhutan: The Diary and Drawings of Samuel Davis, 1783. Michael Aris. London, Serinda Publications; Washington,\Smithsonian Institute, 1982. Pp. 124. Maps. Plates. Illus. Bibliog. Index. £18.00

Middle East

Yemen: the Search for a Modern State. By J.E. Peterson. London, Croom Helm Ltd., 1982. Pp. 221. Map. Appendixes. Bibliog. Index. £11.95

Atatürk: Founder of a Modern State. Ali Kazancigil and Ergun Özbudun, eds. London, C. Hurst &; Co., 1981. Pp. vi + 243. Notes. Index. £8.50

South East Asia

Years of Upheaval. By Henry Kissinger. London, Weidenfeld and Nicolson and Michael Joseph, 1982. Pp. 1152. £15.95

? Sideshow. Kissinger, Nixon and the Destruction of Cambodia. 1979.

Political Conflict in Thailand: Reform, Reaction, Revolution. By David Morell and Chai‐anan Samudavanija. Cambridge, Massachusetts, Oelgeschlager, Gunn and Hain, Publishers, Inc. 1981. Pp. xviii + 362. Appendix. Bibliog. Index. Figures. Tables. £18.75

The Sociology of Secret Societies. A study of Chinese secret societies in Singapore and peninsular Malaysia. By Mak Lau Fong. Kuala Lumpur (OUP ‐ East Asian Social Science Monographs), 1981. Pp. 178. £17.

Far East

China: Politics and Government. By Tony Saich. London, Macmillan, 1981. Pp. xiv + 265. Map. Index. £4.95.

China's New Development Strategy. Jack Gray and Gordon White, eds. London, Academic Press Inc., 1982. Pp. x + 341. Index. £12.20.

Dissent in Early Modern China. By Paul S. Ropp. Ann Arbor, University of Michigan Press, 1981. Pp. viii + 356. Notes. Gloss. Bibliog. Index. $24.00.

MITI and the Japanese Miracle: the Growth of Industrial Policy, 1925–75. By Chalmers Johnson. California, Stanford University Press, 1982. PP. xvi + 393. Bibliog. Index. $28.50.

Japan: Divided Politics in a Growth Economy (2nd edn.). By J. A. A. Stockwin. London, Weidenfeld &; Nicolson, 1982. PP. xiv + 333. Maps. Index. £8.50.

The Roots of Modern Japan. By Jean‐Paul Lehmann. London, Macmillan, 1982. Pp. xviii + 352. Bibliog. Index. £6.95.

Utilitarian Confucianism: Ch'en Liang's Challenge to Chu Hsi. By Hoyt Cleveland Tillman. Cambridge (Mass.) and London, Harvard University Press, 1982. Pp. xvi + 304. Foreword by Benjamin Schwartz. Bibliog. Gloss. Index. $20.00.

Japan's Renaissance: The Politics of the Muromachi Bakufu. By Kenneth Alan Grossberg. Cambridge (Mass.) and London, Harvard University Press, 1981. Pp. xii + 207. Pref. Figures. Appendices. Bibliog. Gloss. Index. £10.50.

Shorter Notices

Guide to Thailand. By Achille Clarac. Edited and translated by Michael Smithies. Kuala Lumpur. Oxford University Press/Duang Kamol Book House, 1981. Pp. ix + 219 (Index 1–35). Notes. Maps. Plans. Illus. Gloss. Bibliog. Index. £12.00 (paperback).

Tales of Burma. By Alister McCrae and friends. Paisley, James Paton Ltd., 1981. Pp. 168. Illus. Maps. Glossary. £2.95.

Academies in Ming China: A Historical Survey. By John Meskill. The University of Arizona Press, Tucson, 1982. Pp. 203. Maps. Illus. Bibliog. Index. $12.95.

The Interlingual Critic: Interpreting Chinese Poetry. By James J. Y. Liu. Indiana University Press, Bloomington, 1981. Pp. 152. Notes. Chinese Name List. Bibliog. Index. £10.77.

The Japanese Crane: Bird of Happiness. By Dorothy Britton (Lady Bouchier) and Tsuneo Hayashida. Tokyo, New York and San Francisco, Kodansha International, 1981. Pp. 64. Bibliog. Illus. Index. £9.30.

Russian Studies of Japan: An Exploratory Survey. By E. Stuart Kirby. London, Macmillan, 1981. Pp. xi + 276.Notes. Bibliog. Index. £20.00.     

Social Disorganization and Neighborhood Fear: Examining the Intersection of Individual,Community, and County Characteristics

Fear has long been studied as a consequence of crime given the consistent and ubiquitous nature of fear as a reaction and the systematic variations in its consequences. Past research has shown significant variations in fear of crime at both the individual and ecological level. Here we implement a multi-level approach to understanding potential interactions between perceived safety in one’s neighborhood in relation to social disorganization indicators at the neighborhood level and crime rates at the county level. The nationally representative sample data (n = 2,610) used in this analysis combines individual level data collected in 2006 from the Panel Study of Religion and Ethnicity (PS-ARE) with ecological level data at the tract and county level from the 2000 US Census. The findings suggest a three level interaction negating the well known protection hypothesis of marriage and crime; this essentially means that as being married or cohabitating decreases the negative effects of being in a community with a high level of familial disruption (percent of divorced) increases, but that effect is substantively negatively tempered as the violent crime rate of the county rises.