Age structure and political violence: a re-assessment of the “youth bulge” hypothesis

A popular hypothesis in international studies states that a “youth bulge”––an age pyramid dominated by large cohorts between 15 and 29 years of age––increases the risk of political violence. However, empirical evidence on this link remains inconclusive to date. In this article, we systematically assess the youth effect using new data from 183 countries between 1996 and 2015. We find that within countries, a decrease in the youth ratio is generally associated with a decrease in the number of violent deaths from terrorism or other internal conflicts, and vice versa. This is also confirmed in out-of-sample predictions. However, the association is not evident in all constellations and sensitive to modeling issues. In particular, large cohorts of young males can become a disruptive power in countries that increase enrollment in post-primary education. Although this is usually followed by fertility decline, youth bulges often remain at record levels for quite some time due to high birth rates in the past. Strong labor markets can in general suppress the detrimental consequences of youth bulges. However, the combination of growing youth cohorts and educational expansion often leads to increased political violence even in the presence of low youth unemployment.     

Europeanization,Policy Transfer or Domestic Opportunity? Comparison of European Impact in Higher Education Policy

The study conceptualizes three distinct functions European initiatives have in national policy changes: providing a model (Europeanization), providing a communication platform (policy transfer) or providing a legitimizing label (enabling opportunism of domestic policy entrepreneurs). Building on the example of higher education policy changes in four European countries – Belgium/Flanders, Croatia, the Netherlands and Serbia ? the study demonstrates that Europeanization, which is the role that can potentially lead to convergence, is actually not the most prominent one. In most cases, European initiatives primarily serve as legitimizing labels for pre-existing policy preferences, thus leading to convergence of policy rhetoric and ideas, while allowing for significant diversity of policy instruments and outcomes.     

Distinguishing accurate from inaccurate eyewitness identifications with an optional deadline procedure

Abstract

Two experiments examined the efficacy of an optional deadline lineup procedure for distinguishing correct from incorrect eyewitness identification decisions. The procedure involved briefly presenting the lineup, removing the lineup from view, then giving participants the option of either making an identification decision or viewing the lineup again. When compared with participants operating under a forced deadline (i.e. forced to respond after the brief presentation) or standard lineup instructions, the optional deadline procedure identified participants with an impressive probability of having made a correct identification when used with target-present lineups and biased instructions. With unbiased instructions, the optional deadline produced clear discrimination between correct and incorrect identification decisions for choosers and, importantly, also for non-choosers. Possible strategies for improving the efficacy of the procedure are suggested.     

Mehr Zuwanderer,mehr Fremdenangst? Ein Überblick über den Forschungsstand und ein Erklärungsversuch aktueller Entwicklungen in Deutschland

The share of residents with foreign roots in Germany will rise considerably in the next years. A crucial societal question will certainly be whether natives will get used to the increasing level of ethnic diversity or whether anti-immigrant threat perceptions will rise. There is an obvious empirical paradox in the context of this question: On the one hand, high immigration usually coincides with more skeptical views towards immigration and greater success for right-wing political parties. On the other hand, these reactions are often over-represented in regions where the actual share of migrants is rather low. This paper presents an overview of theories and evidence on this apparent contradiction. A crucial factor which can at least partially reconcile these ambivalent findings is the geographic level of analysis: If the national share of migrants increases, media coverage of the topic is greater and fears among the population accordingly rise in most cases. On the level of regions, however, effects of contact and habituation are strongest, such that people living in high-immigrant regions tend to perceive immigration in a more positive way. On the level of city districts, the relationship seemingly turns negative again. Here, the more tolerant citizens live in residential areas with a low to moderate share of migrants, while natives living in districts with many foreigners tend to move away or vote for far-right parties, as the success of the “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) in the 2016 state elections suggests. A number of conclusions can be drawn with regard to current developments in Germany.     

Trust in Politicians and Satisfaction with Government – A Reciprocal Causation Approach for European Countries

Trust and satisfaction with the government are the most important indicators of a functioning democratic system. Scholars diverge in their opinions of whether satisfaction causes trust or vice versa or whether both variables reinforce each other simultaneously. This study applies an instrumental variable approach to shed light on this discussion. We employ a sample of 7166 individuals in 3 European countries (i.e., Germany, France, and Great Britain) obtained from the European Social Survey to test this reciprocal relationship. By comparing these three countries with fundamentally different political systems, we investigate the contingency of the reciprocal effect with regard to the political context. The results confirm the reciprocal relationship but reveal differences between the three investigated countries.     

A short history of studying incremental institutional change: Does Explaining Institutional Change provide any new explanations?

Kathleen Thelen is one of the leading scholars studying incremental institutional change. In her early works from the 1990s, she introduced the conceptualization of different modes of incremental change. These modes have central attention in her recent co-edited book with James Mahoney, Explaining Institutional Change (2010). Compared with Thelen's earlier work, this book provides clearer definitions, addresses the explanatory factors of institutional change, and discusses the patterns and sequences of gradual institutional change. The theory presented by Mahoney and Thelen, however, seems overambitious and subject to a need to be overly crisp and clear.     

Books in review

His most recent books are The Hollow Years: France in the 1930s,and Movements, Currents, Trends.