Space–Time Patterns of Risk: A Cross National Assessment of Residential Burglary Victimization

Using epidemiological techniques for testing disease contagion, it has recently been found that in the wake of a residential burglary, the risk to nearby homes is temporarily elevated. This paper demonstrates the ubiquity of this phenomenon by analyzing space–time patterns of burglary in 10 areas, located in five different countries. While the precise patterns vary, for all areas, houses within 200 m of a burgled home were at an elevated risk of burglary for a period of at least two weeks. For three of the five countries, differences in these patterns may partly be explained by simple differences in target density. The findings inform theories of crime concentration and offender targeting strategies, and have implications for crime forecasting and crime reduction more generally.

The Human Side of Poverty Alleviation

正Poverty shouldn't be a controversial subject, but it is. The World Bank, the World Health Organization, the U.S. State Department and pretty much every government in the world has a different definition of what poverty means. In China, absolute poverty is defined as 11 yuan a day; this is about $1.7. The World Bank disagrees and sets a higher number. In 2011 the U.S. considered people to be in poverty if their consumption was less than $21.7 a day. If that were the case, given inflation, almost all Chinese people outside of a few large cities would be in poverty. But living in China is different.     

Roles of neighborhood race and status in the middle stages of juror selection

This study investigated impacts of neighborhood race, status, and stability on the likelihood that summoned citizens would appear at the courthouse for jury duty using a full year of geocoded summoning data from Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (n = 256,204). A theoretical model based on jury selection models and the sociology of settlement patterns connected potential juror yield or turnout with neighborhood stability, and racial and status composition. Multilevel models using census block groups as neighborhoods and controlling for spatial autocorrelation found, as predicted, that yield varied significantly across neighborhoods, and was lower in lower status neighborhoods, less stable neighborhoods, more predominantly Asian neighborhoods, and more predominantly Hispanic neighborhoods. As predicted by work on neighborhood integration, effects of African-American racial composition depended on the stage of neighborhood integration. Overall, the net effect of increasing African-American neighborhood racial composition was to increase yield. A significant spatial lag effect suggested localized dynamics operating beyond neighborhood boundaries.