Proactive Policing: a Summary of the Report of the National Academies of Sciences,Engineering, and Medicine

This paper provides a summary of our report for the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine on proactive policing. We find that there is sufficient scientific evidence to support the adoption of many proactive policing practices if the primary goal is to reduce crime, though the evidence base generally does not provide long-term or jurisdictional estimates. In turn, we conclude that crime prevention outcomes can often be obtained without producing negative community reactions. However, the most effective proactive policing strategies do not appear to have strong positive impacts on citizen perceptions of the police. At the same time, some community-based strategies have begun to show evidence of improving the relations between the police and public. We conclude that there are likely to be large racial disparities in the volume and nature of police–citizen encounters when police target high-risk people or high-risk places, as is common in many proactive policing programs. We could not conclude whether such disparities are due to statistical prediction, racial animus, implicit bias, or other causes.

     

Aoristic Signatures and the Spatio-Temporal Analysis of High Volume Crime Patterns

The spatial analysis of crime and the current focus on hotspots has pushed the area of crime mapping to the fore, especially in regard to high volume offenses such as vehicle theft and burglary. Hotspots also have a temporal component, yet police recorded crime databases rarely record the actual time of offense as this is seldom known. Police crime data tends, more often than not, to reflect the routine activities of the victims rather than the offense patterns of the offenders. This paper demonstrates a technique that uses police START and END crime times to generate a crime occurrence probability at any given time that can be mapped or visualized graphically. A study in the eastern suburbs of Sydney, Australia, demonstrates that crime hotspots with a geographical proximity can have distinctly different temporal patterns.     

The eleventh plateau: The lost object(ive) of legal education

Thanks to Peter Goodrich for commenting on an earlier version of this essay.     

Crime Mapping and the Training Needs of Law Enforcement

This paper explores some of the more recent developments within crime mapping and the broader application of geographical information technology within law enforcement. The information technology (IT) revolution and the reduction in computing costs since the 1980s has brought a range of analytical tools within the budgets of most police services, and one of the most significant changes has been in the way that spatial data are handled. Law enforcement has strong geographic currents at all levels of the organisation, and this paper examines three applications of geographical information systems (GIS) within policing: hotspot mapping; CompStat; and geographic profiling. The paper concludes by discussing the future training needs using a simple model of intelligence-led crime reduction. This model suggests that training for managers to enable a greater understanding of the analyses presented to them, and how to use mapping to further crime prevention and reduction, may be as important as increasing the technical ability of crime analysts. The challenge for the immediate future of crime reduction practice in law enforcement is less to worry about the training of analysts, and more to address the inability of law enforcement management to understand and act on the crime analysis they are given.     

Development jujitsu: Looking on the bright side

Whatever one concludes with respect to whether global standards of living are getting better or worse, it is undeniable that people everywhere are becoming more closely integrated into and dependent upon a global economic system over which they have no control. This is a consequence not of policy failures but of policy decisions. The richer, more powerful countries have always sought access to the poorer ones mainly in order to exploit them, and such exploitation has always been undertaken in the name of noble cause—in centuries past, most commonly saving souls, in the late twentieth century, development. That would not cease to be the case if people of selfless good will disassociated themselves from the official enterprise of development assistance. The challenge, then, for those who would turn the tables and promote the empowerment of poor communities is to take advantage of the cover story. If hypocrisy is the tribute vice pays to virtue, the tribute must at least be invested well. Jan Knippers Black is a professor of international policy studies at the Monterey Institute of International Studies. Previously she has been Research Professor of Public Administration at the University of New Mexico and Senior Research Scientist and Chairman of the Latin American Research Team in the Foreign Area Studies Division of American University. Her recent publications include:Latin America, Its Problems and Its Promise, 2nd ed. rev. (1991);Development in Theory and Practice; Bridging the Gap (1991); andDevelopment on a Human Scale (forthcoming). She has also published more than 100 chapters and articles in reference books and anthologies, journals, magazines, and newspapers.