Reasons for caution in interpreting results of the 19th Party Conference are outlined, but an argument for a continuing consolidation of Gorbachev's power and use of the democratization theme as a screen for acceleration of economic reform is made. Various explanations for the lack of significant change in party rules and in procedures for determining Central Committee membership (defeat for Gorbachev, alternative strategies for membership change, solid Politburo and/or military power base for Gorbachev) are examined, Gorbachev's ability to handle the “lame duck” membership problem in the Central Committee being identified as a feature to watch in the future. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 052, 124, 113. 相似文献
The relationship between export concentration and various aspects of the export performance of 31 developing nations during the period 1954–67 is considered in this paper.1 Estimates of the magnitude, instability and time‐trend of both the geographic concentration of exports and export earnings are utilised to estimate the direction and strength of association between these aspects of export concentration, instability and growth.2 The analysis reveals diverse patterns of geographic export concentration among the countries, but offers little support for conventional views of an important direct relationship between export concentration and the instability or growth rate of export earnings.3相似文献
Effective implementation of mediation programs on a large scale is a complex challenge. This article describes the process of design and implementation of a child protection mediation model and highlights the challenges and successes involved in leading fundamental culture shifts within the child welfare system over a period of eleven years. 相似文献
This paper provides a summary of our report for the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine on proactive policing. We find that there is sufficient scientific evidence to support the adoption of many proactive policing practices if the primary goal is to reduce crime, though the evidence base generally does not provide long-term or jurisdictional estimates. In turn, we conclude that crime prevention outcomes can often be obtained without producing negative community reactions. However, the most effective proactive policing strategies do not appear to have strong positive impacts on citizen perceptions of the police. At the same time, some community-based strategies have begun to show evidence of improving the relations between the police and public. We conclude that there are likely to be large racial disparities in the volume and nature of police–citizen encounters when police target high-risk people or high-risk places, as is common in many proactive policing programs. We could not conclude whether such disparities are due to statistical prediction, racial animus, implicit bias, or other causes.
The spatial analysis of crime and the current focus on hotspots has pushed the area of crime mapping to the fore, especially in regard to high volume offenses such as vehicle theft and burglary. Hotspots also have a temporal component, yet police recorded crime databases rarely record the actual time of offense as this is seldom known. Police crime data tends, more often than not, to reflect the routine activities of the victims rather than the offense patterns of the offenders. This paper demonstrates a technique that uses police START and END crime times to generate a crime occurrence probability at any given time that can be mapped or visualized graphically. A study in the eastern suburbs of Sydney, Australia, demonstrates that crime hotspots with a geographical proximity can have distinctly different temporal patterns. 相似文献
This paper explores some of the more recent developments within crime mapping and the broader application of geographical information technology within law enforcement. The information technology (IT) revolution and the reduction in computing costs since the 1980s has brought a range of analytical tools within the budgets of most police services, and one of the most significant changes has been in the way that spatial data are handled. Law enforcement has strong geographic currents at all levels of the organisation, and this paper examines three applications of geographical information systems (GIS) within policing: hotspot mapping; CompStat; and geographic profiling. The paper concludes by discussing the future training needs using a simple model of intelligence-led crime reduction. This model suggests that training for managers to enable a greater understanding of the analyses presented to them, and how to use mapping to further crime prevention and reduction, may be as important as increasing the technical ability of crime analysts. The challenge for the immediate future of crime reduction practice in law enforcement is less to worry about the training of analysts, and more to address the inability of law enforcement management to understand and act on the crime analysis they are given. 相似文献