Do Remittances Diminish Social Violence?

This paper represents the first attempt to formalise the relationship between remittances and social violence by developing a model that predicts that migrants’ remittances lead to the reduction of social violence in the recipient economy under the condition that remittances increase the average product of labour. Using homicide data as an indicator of social violence, we tested our model’s prediction. Controlling for the endogeneity problem with appropriate instruments, we found that remittances tend to reduce social violence. We performed sensitivity analysis on remittances in the empirical specification and found it robust with an unchanged negative sign.     

The emerging political economy of austerity in Britain

This paper uses data from the British Election Study's Continuous Monitoring Surveys to investigate reactions of the British public to the economic crisis and the austerity policies the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government has adopted to deal with it. Multivariate models informed by competing valence and positional theories of electoral choice are employed to study the impact of these reactions on support for the Conservative Party and Prime Minister David Cameron and evaluations of the Conservatives' ability to handle important issues. Analyses indicate that there is widespread and growing pessimism about the prospects of resolving the economic crisis in the near future. Since the crisis began in 2008, the dynamics of these bearish attitudes have been closely linked to rising unemployment rates. Differing positions regarding the Coalition's austerity policies exert sizable effects on party support, but these attitudes have not negated the force of valence politics considerations such as party leader images, partisan attachments and global assessments of party performance.     

Do Labour Parties Suffer from Declining Turnout? Evidence from Norwegian Local Elections

The argument that declining voter turnout harms social democratic parties has received little support in research on national elections, but partisan consequences of declining turnout in local elections has been less explored. Norwegian local elections – where both turnout and support for the Labour Party have declined since the early 1960s – are used as a test case. Analyses of aggregate data gave no systematic support for the hypothesis that Labour suffers from lower turnout. Declining turnout and declining Labour Party vote were not causally related, and the correlation between the two variables seemed to be the result of other long-term social changes. Analyses of survey data pointed to three flaws in the premises on which the hypothesis was based. First, the effect of declining turnout on the biased class composition of the abstainers was ambiguous. Second, the Norwegian Labour Party suffers less from differential turnout than before as a result of declining class voting. Third, the Labour Party may suffer from a demobilisation of the working class, but the party may also benefit from a demobilisation of the young.     

Terrorism: Review of 1988 and prospects for 1989

This article is the first to explore the Israel Defense Forces's official statistical data on Palestinian terrorism toward Israeli targets during the al-Aqsa intifada 2000–2004. Focusing the analysis on the logic of terrorist target choice, the article identifies two separate results: First, an unambiguous difference in the form of the attacks contingent on whether they are carried out in the state of Israel or in the Occupied Territories. Second, based on the same distinction, the analysis points out how the attacks are targeted toward distinctively different categories of the Israeli populace. Causes of the results are discussed.     

Application of Random Match Probability Calculations to Mixed STR Profiles

Mixed DNA profiles are being encountered more frequently as laboratories analyze increasing amounts of touch evidence. If it is determined that an individual could be a possible contributor to the mixture, it is necessary to perform a statistical analysis to allow an assignment of weight to the evidence. Currently, the combined probability of inclusion (CPI) and the likelihood ratio (LR) are the most commonly used methods to perform the statistical analysis. A third method, random match probability (RMP), is available. This article compares the advantages and disadvantages of the CPI and LR methods to the RMP method. We demonstrate that although the LR method is still considered the most powerful of the binary methods, the RMP and LR methods make similar use of the observed data such as peak height, assumed number of contributors, and known contributors where the CPI calculation tends to waste information and be less informative.     

The endorsement of cognitive distortions: comparing child pornography offenders and contact sex offenders

This study examined the endorsement of cognitive distortions in child pornography offenders (CPOs), using an established assessment tool, the Abel and Becker Cognition Scale. The scale was expanded to include cognitions specific to child pornography offending, extracted from Howitt and Sheldon's Children and Sexual Activities Inventory (C&SA). Three samples of CPOs, child sex offenders and offenders with both offence types responded to the cognition items. An exploratory Principal Component Analysis suggested six main components of the scale. CPOs were significantly less likely to endorse these statements in general, and this was more pronounced on items that project blame onto the child or other people, describe a need for power and consider children as sexually active. The statements extracted from C&SA did not differentiate between the groups. These findings are discussed under consideration of the relationship between cognitive distortions and contact sex offending, and in reference to the general criticism concerning the definition and appropriate measurement of cognitive distortions.     

Tracking individuals and households: longitudinal features of Danseong household register data

Household registers, which were compiled every three years and contained a variety of demographic information, are invaluable sources with which to investigate family and demographic behaviors of historical populations in Korea, especially during the period of the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. Linking three sets of household registers that covered the area of Danseong from 1780 to 1786, in this study we examine longitudinal features of Korean household registers. We assess the degree of attrition over six years at both individual and household level, and identify social and demographic characteristics associated with attrition. Our investigation shows a considerable degree of attrition of individuals and households over six years which is significantly associated with the social status of individuals and the household heads. We supplement the analysis of exits with the analysis of new entrances, which shows that in each year of register a substantial number of individuals, comparable to the size of individuals and households lost, were newly added. Those who newly entered the registers are very similar in their characteristics to those who exited the registers. We discuss the implications of our findings for studies that rely on Korean household registers to examine family and demographic behaviors of historical populations in Korea and East Asia.     

Public attitudes to sex offenders in New Zealand

Abstract

Sexual offending is a topic that often invokes heated debate and strong opinions among individuals from all walks of life. Generally, those who commit crimes of a sexual nature are uniformly abhorred, especially those who sexually abuse children. While the presence of these views is widely acknowledged, little is known about what these views are or how they develop. This study aimed to answer this question by conducting focus groups in various centres around New Zealand. The results showed that the news media was identified as the most important source of information on sexual offenders, although there was some scepticism in regard to the veracity of such information. Some of the views expressed were consistent with current understandings of sexual offending while some appeared to be borne of a lack of information. The results are considered in light of current research and the implications and future directions for further research are discussed briefly.     

Poaching, habitat loss and the decline of neotropical parrots: a comparative spatial analysis

Objective

To evaluate the relative contributions of poaching and habitat loss to the endangerment of neotropical parrots

Method

A matched case-control design was employed. Using NatureServe digitized range maps for birds in the Americas, 145 neotropical parrot species were individually matched with 145 control species, from similar ranges and, by proxy, from similar habitats. The control species were taxonomically similar, mid-sized, forest-dwelling birds that, like parrots, use holes and cavities for breeding and roosting. The conservation status of the parrots and control birds was established through the IUCN Red List of endangered species.

Results

Nearly five times as many parrot species (59 out of 145) as non-parrots (13 out of 145) are threatened with extinction to some degree. In 54 out of 65 pairs with unequal conservation status, the parrot species is at greater risk of extinction.

Conclusions

Subject to limitations of the matching employed and the use of range data as a proxy for habitat, it is concluded that poaching is a strong threat to the conservation of neotropical parrots—perhaps stronger than habitat loss. Criminologists therefore have an important part to play in conservation of parrots, and perhaps also in conservation of other endangered species, through identification and implementation of measures to control poaching.     

Modelling the dynamics of support for a right-wing populist party: the case of UKIP

Similar to a number of other right-wing populist parties in Europe, Great Britain's United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) has experienced increased public support in recent years. Using aggregate data from monthly national surveys conducted between April 2004 and April 2014, time series analyses demonstrate that the dynamics of UKIP support were influenced by a combination of spatial and valence issues. A spatial issue, Euroscepticism, was fundamental, with UKIP support moving in dynamic equilibrium with changing public attitudes towards EU membership. In addition, widespread anti-immigration sentiment and dissatisfaction with the performance of the Conservative–Liberal Democrat coalition government combined with the “oxygen of publicity” to propel UKIP's surge. The political context after the 2010 general election helped as well by enabling UKIP to benefit from valence considerations. Many voters continued to doubt the competence of the major opposition party, Labour, while the Liberal Democrats were part of the government and, hence, unavailable as a protest vehicle. Since many of the forces driving UKIP support are beyond its control, the party's prospects are highly uncertain.