Coalition Prospects and Policy Change: An Application to the Environment

In most developed democracies, parties adjust their positions to polls and public opinion. Yet, in a coalition government, the policy that emerges is often the outcome of negotiations between governing parties. We argue that the credibility of exit threats by current coalition members and the importance of outside parties for the formation of potential alternative coalitions both matter for policy adoption. Building on a new data set measuring the expected coalition‐inclusion probabilities of parties in parliamentary democracies, we estimate the effect of coalition prospects on an important policy outcome—environmental policy stringency—in nine European countries between 1990 and 2012. Our findings demonstrate that only polling shifts that alter coalition probabilities affect outcomes. Changes in the coalition‐inclusion probability of green parties—regardless of whether they are in government—predict changes in the environmental policy stringency of sitting governments. Political polls, in contrast, do not.     

Anhängige Klagen vor dem Europäischen Gerichtshof

Ohne Zusammenfassung     

Observer Sensitivity and Early Radicalization to Violence Among Young People in Germany

Social Justice Research - Personal sensitivity to injustice from either a victim or an observer perspective shapes political attitudes and actions. Yet, little is known about the link between...     

Comparison of natural and artificial aging of ballpoint inks

Abstract:  Solvent evaporation caused by aging from ballpoint inks was measured by gas chromatography/mass spectroscopy (GC/MS). The sample preparation was carried out with two different thermal desorption systems. The results are compared. Thirteen inks were classified with regard to their solvents, polymers, and additives. The variation of the aforementioned compounds caused by aging was monitored for naturally and artificially aged samples. In this paper, the results are compared and discussed with respect to forensic casework.