Political business cycles and macroeconomic credibility: a survey

There is clear evidence that government popularity and election performance is affected, in part, by economic performance, suggesting that governments may manipulate the economy to political advantage. Simple models incorporating adaptive expectations which allowed the government to exploit this relationship were developed in the 1970s, but fell out of fashion with the advent of new-classical economics. However, modern theories of the political business cycle, which are closely related to the macroeconomic policy game literature, assume rational expectations, and lead to forms of political business cycle, driven by the existence of uncertainty of one type or another. The international evidence suggests that some aspects of the theories apply, although definitive conclusions are – as we might expect – hard to come by.     

The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.     

Terrorism as Cancer: How to Combat an Incurable Disease

ABSTRACT

This paper provides an alternative framework that conceptualizes the threat posed by terrorism based on an epidemiological approach that views it as a chronic disease like cancer rather than as a military, ideological, or socio-economic problem. After highlighting the similarities in the causes, behavior, treatments, and challenges of combating terrorism and cancer, this paper presents a staging system policymakers can use to educate the public and allocate counterterrorism resources more efficiently. This approach encourages policymakers to see terrorism for what it is (an all but inevitable facet of modern life that can be managed but never fully eliminated), and not what they wish terrorism to be (a national security problem that can be solved, defeated, or vanquished). It provides policymakers with a useful model to conceptualize the threat and treat terrorism in a comprehensive manner, from preventing future attacks to effectively responding to them when they will inevitably occur.     

What do NHS staff learn from training on the Mental Capacity Act (2005)?

Purpose. Many studies have reported that professionals have a limited understanding of mental capacity issues. Implementation (in England and Wales) of the Mental Capacity Act (MCA) (2005) presents a challenge to services. The aim of this study was to evaluate the extent to which National Health Service (NHS) staff benefited from attending MCA training courses. Methods. Participants were assessed before and after MCA training using a structured interview, which included three scenarios describing mental capacity dilemmas, four vignettes addressing the role of the Independent Mental Capacity Advocate (IMCA), and 16 true–false items. Results. Interview performance improved post‐training, but this could be largely ascribed to an increased awareness of mental capacity issues, with minimal improvements in the knowledge that would be needed to undertake the assessments. Nine areas were identified where there remained significant gaps in participants’ knowledge post‐training. Participants with experience of dealing with mental capacity issues performed better than those without. Conclusions. The results suggest that methods other than formal training events may be needed to prepare health staff to implement new legislation.     

A modified Stroop task with sexual offenders: Replication of a study

Abstract

Cognitive–behavioural treatment of sexual offenders assumes that sexual offenders are motivated by deviant attitudes, perceptions and values. Although aspects of deviant schema can be assessed by questionnaires, self-report measures are limited by the respondent's willingness to be forthright and by the fact that, typically, these cognitive processes occur quickly, revealing signs of automaticity. Recent research by Smith and Waterman has suggested that the deviant schema of sexual offenders could be assessed using a version of the Stroop colour-naming task. Long latency periods to sexual colour words imply a longer information-processing route and evidence of pre-established (deviant) sexual cognitive schema. Stroop techniques may offer the advantage of eliminating limitations that arise when using self-report techniques, such as fakeability and social desirability concerns. The current study replicates and extends Smith and Waterman's results using samples of sexual offenders, non-sexual violent offenders and non-violent offenders. The cumulative results of the two studies suggests that Stroop techniques have promise, but that further work is required before measures are available that have sufficient reliability and validity to be used in applied contexts.     

When an Alibi Is Not Enough: Judgments of Evidence Needed to Lay Charges in a Burglary Case

Laypersons were asked to assume the role of investigators to explore judgments of what evidence is needed to make an arrest in a criminal investigation when an alibi witness is present. Participants were sensitive to the relationship between the alibi witness and the suspect and were more likely to believe an alibi provided by someone unrelated to the suspect, as evidenced by requests for more physical evidence against the suspect than when the alibi corroborator was a family member. In addition, when presented with contradictory evidence, the age of the alibi witness became an important consideration. Age alone did not impact perceptions of evidence adequacy; however, when an (adult) eyewitness provided testimony that contradicted a child alibi witness, participants demonstrated partiality towards believing the child as evidenced by (a) more requests for physical evidence to be convinced the child was wrong and to arrest the suspect and (b) higher ratings of alibi witness credibility. This effect was not seen when the eyewitness’s testimony contradicted an alibi provided by an adult. The results provide insight for investigators and legal counsel regarding the influence of varying types of alibi witness evidence.     

Do perceptions of neighborhood disorganization predict crime or victimization? An examination of gang member versus non-gang member jail inmates

This study examines the effects of perceptions of social disorganization on crime perpetration and victimization among a sample of incarcerated adult gang and non-gang members. Using survey data from 2,414 jail inmates, results suggest that gang members are significantly more likely than non-gang members to be both perpetrators and victims of property and personal crimes. Results also indicate substantive similarities and differences between gang members and non-gang members with regard to crime, victimization, and perceptions of social disorganization. Inmates’ perceptions of the level of social disorganization in their neighborhoods are more strongly related to their reported offending behavior than to their reported victimization.