Exchange Rate Pass-Through to Consumer Prices in South Africa: Evidence from Micro-Data

Abstract

A sizeable literature examines exchange rate pass-through to disaggregated import prices, but few micro-studies focus on consumer prices. This article explores exchange rate pass-through to consumer prices in South Africa, for 2002–2007, using a unique data set of highly disaggregated data at the product and outlet level. The empirical approach allows pass-through to be calculated over various horizons for different goods and services. The heterogeneity of pass-through for food sub-components is considerable. Switches between import and export parity pricing of maize are found significant for five out of ten food sub-components. Using actual weights from the CPI basket, overall pass-through to the almost 63 per cent of the CPI covered is about 30 per cent after two years, and higher for food.     

Special Section Introduction: Thriving in Context: Findings from the 4-H Study of Positive Youth Development

The positive youth development perspective, a strength-based relational developmental systems model that focuses on mutually influential relationships between individuals and contexts, has been used to study thriving across the second decade of life. However, more attention has been paid empirically to identifying the features of the individual (e.g., intentional self regulation, hope, or purpose) or to enumerating the role of context-general ecological assets than to the nature of individual-context relationships linked to thriving within specific contexts. The goal of this special section is to provide initial research reports about context-specific instances of the thriving process. The research focuses on two contexts where many youth spend a considerable amount, and often the majority, of their time—school and out-of-school time sports activities.     

The Impact of Emotional Disturbances on the Arrest Trajectories of Youth as They Transition into Young Adulthood

This article identifies the arrest trajectories of youth from ages 12 through 24 years old and tests hypotheses derived from Moffitt’s developmental taxonomic theory of crime concerning the impact of various emotional disturbances on the specific trajectories of the youth involved. The study uses exclusively administrative data sets and includes a gender and racially diverse sample of 10,360 youth (30.7 % females) who were arrested at least once between ages 12 and 24 in the early 2000s. Latent class growth analysis was employed in order to identify distinct arrest trajectories of youth in the sample. Multinomial logistic regression was used to identify diagnostic and other characteristics associated with membership in the specific trajectories predicted by Moffitt’s theory. Five trajectory classes were identified, 3 of which were consistent with taxonomic theory including high and classic adolescence limited trajectory classes and a “snared adolescence limited class” described more recently by Moffitt. The distribution of youth among the 5 classes was very different for those with and without emotional disturbances. Youth with emotional disturbances in their late adolescent years were more likely to fall into the high arrest trajectory class and much less likely to fall into the low arrest trajectory class. Compared to youth without an emotional disturbance, youth with psychotic disorders were more than twice as likely to fall into the high as into the low arrest trajectory class. Youth with disruptive behavior disorders were more than twice as likely to fall into the high and intermediate classes as into the low trajectory class. Anxiety and depressive disorders were not associated with significantly greater likelihood of falling into any one of the trajectory classes. Youth in the snared adolescence limited class were more likely than those in the classic adolescence limited class to be male, black versus white and in the foster care enrollment category lending some support to Moffitt’s conceptualization of this class as an adolescence limited class composed of youth who are snared by involvement in the criminal justice and or social services systems. Implications of these results for public policy and the study of adolescence are discussed.     

The influence of foreign direct investment on contracting confidence in developing countries

This paper examines whether foreign direct investment (FDI) influences confidence in commercial contracts in developing countries. While the research on how host countries’ policy environments encourage FDI inflows has flourished, scholars have paid less attention to how the policy environment and local actors’ beliefs might, in turn, be affected by FDI. This is surprising because multinational enterprises are well‐recognized political and economic actors across the world. We expect that their increasing economic salience will influence the policy environments in which they function. By employing an innovative measure of property rights protection – contract‐intensive money – we examine how foreign direct investment influences host countries’ contract‐intensive money ratio in a large panel time series of both developed and developing countries from 1980 to 2002. Our analysis suggests that higher levels of FDI inflows are associated with greater confidence in commercial contracts and, by extension, the protection of property rights in developing countries.     

The collapse of the fisheries sector in Kyrgyzstan: An analysis of its roots and its prospects for revival

The disintegration of the Soviet Union had profound economic and social effects on many of the newly independent transition economies. Nowhere was this more so than in the fisheries sector – with one of the biggest production shortfalls occurring in Kyrgyzstan, following the collapse of lake capture and pond-culture production. In 2005, aggregate landings were just 48 tonnes – barely 3 per cent of the catch level recorded in 1989. This article has two objectives. First it analyses the extent to which the dissolution of the Soviet Union can explain the collapse of the fisheries sector in Kyrgyzstan. Second, in the light of these findings, it considers what practical steps, if any, might be taken to revitalize the sector.     

Housing Management and the Comprehensive Housing Model in Hong Kong: A case study of colonial influence

This article contains an examination of the way in which the largely British model of professional comprehensive housing management became important in Hong Kong. It shows how a comparatively small number of pioneers, mainly women who were followers of the principles of Octavia Hill, a philanthropic social reformer who developed her ideas in 19th century London, had a considerable influence in the very different environment of Hong Kong. An examination of the comparatively small amount of literature on the housing management profession is followed by a detailed analysis of the way in which the housing management profession has developed in Hong Kong. A review of the origin of public housing programmes in Hong Kong highlights the influence which housing professionals had when the housing administration was radically restructured at the time of the formation of the Hong Kong Housing Authority in the early 1970s.