Testing the power of arguments in referendums: A Bradley–Terry approach

How can we determine which arguments in a referendum are most persuasive? We show that the Bradley–Terry model has several features that make it well-suited to this task, and thus preferable to other, more conventional approaches. Using a survey experiment conducted during an electoral reform referendum in Ontario, Canada in October 2007, we demonstrate how unstructured and structured Bradley–Terry models can be straightforwardly fitted and interpreted. In doing so, we gain insight into the factors which determine support for electoral reform. We identify a status quo bias and find that power varies with mention of fairness, local control over candidate selection, and the role of political parties. We conclude by discussing the limits, extensions and further applications of such models in electoral studies and political science more broadly.     

Automated Texture Recognition of Quartz Sand Grains for Forensic Applications*

Quartz sand surface texture analysis has been automated for the first time for forensic application. The derived Basic Image Features (BIFs) provide computer-generated texture recognition from preexisting data sets. The technique was applied to two distinct classification problems; first, the ability of the system to discriminate between (quartz) sand grains with upturned plate features (indicative of eolian, global sand sea environments) and grains that do not exhibit these features. A success rate of grain classification of 98.8% was achieved. Second, to test the ability of the computer recognition system to identify specific energy levels of formation of the upturned plate surface texture features. Such recognition ability has to date been beyond manual geological interpretation. The discrimination performance was enhanced to an exact classification success rate of 81%. The enhanced potential for routine forensic investigation of the provenance of common quartz sand is indicated.     

An investigation into the differentiating characteristics between car key burglars and regular burglars

Car key burglary has recently become the focus of empirical investigation as offenders, no longer able to steal vehicles without first obtaining their keys, resort to "burgling" target properties. Research surrounding the modus operandi of these offenses is beginning to emerge; however, little attention has been paid to investigating the characteristics of car key burglary offenders. Challenging the assumption that car key burglary offenses are perpetrated by regular burglars, this study aims to differentiate between offenders. Logistic regression analysis of 110 car key and 110 regular burglary offenders revealed that car key burglars are more likely to have previous vehicle theft convictions and are also more likely to be detected on information supplied to the police than regular burglars. Regular burglars are more likely to have previous shoplifting convictions. It was concluded that car key burglars are a distinct sample of offenders and the implications of these findings are discussed.     

Race group differences in prison victimization experiences

Purpose

To assess differences in victimization risk between African American and white, non-Latino inmates, and to estimate race group differences in the correlates of victimization.

Methods

Random samples totaling 2,403 African Americans and 3,150 whites were drawn from all state prisons in Ohio and Kentucky and all private prisons in Ohio (n = 46). Race-specific bi-level models of physical assaults and property thefts were estimated. Differences between race-specific models in the magnitude of regression coefficients for the same predictors and outcomes were compared.

Results

The odds of victimization by physical assault and by theft were significantly higher among whites compared to African Americans. Race group differences in the magnitude of several inmate level effects (e.g., age, sex, education, family status, officer “legitimacy”, custody score, visitation) were also significant, yet facility effects were similar for both groups.

Conclusions

Assessing differences in the victimization experiences of African American and white inmates is important for developing effective crime prevention strategies in prison. We examined the most comprehensive models of inmate victimization (including inmate socio-demographics, activities during confinement, perceptions of officers, facility characteristics, and officer perceptions of rule enforcement) for one of the largest samples of prisons to date.     

Not by accident: An analytical approach to traffic crash harm reduction

Purpose

This study examines whether a problem-oriented approach used by police in Cincinnati, Ohio called the Crash Analysis Reduction Strategy (CARS) corresponded with a change in the number of traffic crashes that resulted in injuries after implementation onset. Under the CARS model, police developed tactics that focused on targeting high-risk driving behaviors, impaired drivers, and crash hotspot locations within the city.

Methods

Using a two-phase strategy we first assess local impact by examining injury-related traffic crash patterns at targeted locations. Second, we examine whether traffic crashes that resulted in injuries in Cincinnati significantly diverged relative to similar outcomes across a number of comparison sites.

Results

Difference-in-difference negative binomial regression analyses indicates that traffic crashes were significantly lower in Cincinnati - down roughly 5.7% to 10.3% in the post-intervention period - when contrasted with comparison sites.

Conclusions

Our findings suggest that comprehensive problem solving approaches can significantly reduce the risk of life changing events such as automobile crashes that result in injuries beyond traditional policing efforts that explicitly focus on crime and violence.     

Children of the American Prison Generation: Student and School Spillover Effects of Incarcerating Mothers

Formal equality and judicial neutrality can lead to substantive inequality for women and children, with social costs that extend beyond individuals and families and spill over into the larger social settings in which they are located. We consider the uniquely damaging effects of an “equality with a vengeance” (Chesney‐Lind & Pollack 1995) that resulted from “tough on crime” policies and the 1980s federal and state sentencing guidelines that led to the incarceration of more women and mothers. We argue that legal equality norms of the kind embedded in the enforcement of sentencing guidelines can mask and punish differences in gendered role expectations. Paradoxically, although fathers are incarcerated in much greater numbers than are mothers, the effect threshold is lower and the scale of effect on educational outcomes tends to be greater for maternal incarceration. We demonstrate both student‐ and school‐level effects of maternal incarceration: the damaging effects not only affect the children of imprisoned mothers but also spill over to children of nonincarcerated mothers in schools with elevated levels of maternal incarceration. We find a 15 percent reduction in college graduation rates in schools where as few as 10 percent of other students' mothers are incarcerated. The effects for imprisoned fathers are also notable, especially at the school level. Schools with higher father incarceration rates (25 percent) have college graduation rates as much as 50 percent lower than those of other schools. The effects of imprisoned mothers are particularly notable at the student level (i.e., with few children of imprisoned mothers graduating from college), while maternal imprisonment effects are found at both student and school levels across the three measured outcomes. We demonstrate these effects in a large, nationally representative longitudinal study of American children from the 1990s prison generation who were tracked into early adulthood.     

Overview of: “Getting the Law Involved a Quasi-Experiment in Early Intervention Involving Collaboration Between Schools and the District Attorney's Office”

Research Summary Precursors to serious and chronic delinquency often emerge in childhood, stimulating calls for early interventions. Most intervention efforts rely solely on social service programs—often to the exclusion of the juvenile justice system. The juvenile justice system has been reluctant to become involved in the lives of relatively young children fearing net widening or further straining resources that could be used for older youth with documented delinquency histories. We report here the results of an early intervention program sponsored by and housed in a district attorney's office in Louisiana. Using a quasi-experimental design, we examined outcomes associated with program involvement as well as whether the obvious involvement of the prosecutor's office was associated with further reductions in problem behavior.

• 1 : The results revealed that significant reductions in problem behaviors of young children could be attributed to program participation.
• 2 : The obvious involvement of the district attorney's office, however, was associated with limited, albeit significant, reductions in specific problem behaviors.
• 3 : These findings show that successful early intervention efforts can be made part of the juvenile justice system and that in some limited situations prosecutorial involvement can result in positive outcomes.

Policy Implications The expansion of early intervention programming into the juvenile justice system offers opportunities to address early problem behavior. Our study and its results have the following policy implications.

• 1 : Closely coupled partnerships between schools and the juvenile justice system can effectively address, mitigate, and perhaps prevent an early onset of antisocial behavior.
• 2 : Even so, coupling early intervention efforts to the mission of the juvenile justice system warrants debate. Net-widening, resource diffusion, and the potential for officials to rely too heavily on the deterrent characteristics of the justice system represent serious threats to the integrity of effective early intervention programs.
• 3 : We suggest substantial debate and consideration is given before coupling early intervention efforts to the juvenile justice system.

     

Sudden and unexpected death from pituitary tumor apoplexy

Pituitary tumor apoplexy refers to a clinical syndrome precipitated by the expansion of a pituitary adenoma by hemorrhage or infarction. Individuals may present with myriad signs, including sudden onset of severe headache, visual changes, altered mental status, cranial nerve palsies, and hormonal dysfunction. This disorder constitutes a medical emergency and warrants an expedited evaluation, diagnosis, and treatment to prevent the potential sequelae of permanent visual loss, endocrine abnormalities, or death. We report a case of sudden death from undiagnosed pituitary tumor apoplexy. The decedent was evaluated by medical personnel on three occasions in the week prior to her death for severe headache, nausea, vomiting, and photophobia. Postmortem examination demonstrated a hemorrhagic infarction of a pituitary adenoma with necrosis and expansion out of the sella turcica. The recognition of and treatment for a patient with pituitary tumor apoplexy requires a rapid multidisciplinary effort. Failure of prompt diagnosis may be fatal and require a medico-legal death investigation for sudden and unexpected death.     

Geophysical Monitoring of Simulated Clandestine Graves Using Electrical and Ground‐Penetrating Radar Methods: 0–3 Years After Burial*,†

Abstract: This study provides forensic search teams with systematic geophysical monitoring data over simulated clandestine graves for comparison to active cases. Simulated “wrapped” and “naked” burials were created. Multigeophysical surveys were collected over a 3‐year monitoring period. Bulk ground resistivity, electrical resistivity imaging, multifrequency ground‐penetrating radar (GPR), and grave and background “soil‐water” conductivity data were collected. Resistivity surveys revealed the naked burial had consistently low‐resistivity anomalies, whereas the wrapped burial had small, varying high‐resistivity anomalies. GPR 110‐ to 900‐MHz frequency surveys showed the wrapped burial could be detected throughout, with the “naked” burial mostly resolved. Two hundred and twenty‐five megahertz frequency GPR data were optimal. “Soil‐water” analyses showed rapidly increasing (year 1), slowly increasing (year 2), and decreasing (year 3) conductivity values. Results suggest resistivity and GPR surveys should be collected if target “wrapping” is unknown, with winter to spring surveys optimal. Resistivity surveys should be collected in clay‐rich soils.     

Structural anomie and crime: a cross-national test

Anomie is a highly prominent theoretical construct in macro-social, particularly cross-national, criminological inquiry. Yet despite its prominence, it has proven to be quite elusive with regard to its measurement and, hence, making it nearly impossible to test theoretical hypotheses regarding its predictive efficacy. Although the concept, whether derived from Merton's classic conceptualization or from its current incarnation in the form of institutional anomie as developed by Messner and Rosenfeld, is multidimensional and complex in its theoretical structure, most researchers have attempted to operationalize it through simple, single-item, often surrogate/proxy measures. The present research note attempts to develop a measure that is more consistent with its multidimensional and complex nature. This more complex operationalization is then examined with regard to its efficacy at predicting cross-national levels of both homicide and theft. Our results suggest that that this new operationalization has considerable predictive efficacy, accounting for approximately one third of the variation in the cross-national level of both homicide and theft.