URWICK ON THE PIONEERS OF MANAGEMENT

Colonel Lyndall Fownes Urwick is one of the major theoreticians and historians of the management movement of the twentieth century. For this he has been recognized internationally, holding most of the major awards for excellence in contributions to management. He is now 87 years old and lives in Australia. In this paper the authors report an edited version of Urwick's verbal responses to questions about Taylor, the Gilbreths, Gant, Fayol, Mayo, Mooney, Reiley, Mary Parker Follett, Barnard, Drucker and Koontz. Questions were designed to elicit Urwick's experiences with the individuals rather than just their ideas. Anecdotal recollections have been included where they give insights into the pioneer's personality and writings.     

Regionalized personnel development for criminal justice employees

The Dayton/Montgomery County Criminal Justice Center is a first attempt at systematic personnel development for an entire criminal justice system on a regional level. Through its work in training and education, communications, career pathing and development, and system change, the Center has promoted the idea of an improved, symbiotic relatioship among the major branches of the criminal justice system, and has acted as a catalyst for needed systemic change.     

Style issues and vote choice

It has been an assumption common in voting research that candidates must offer and voters must perceive opposing stands on issues for those issues to have a rational influence on the vote. Though apparently reasonable, this assumption eliminates analysis of the rational impact of style in voter thinking. This article argues that style issues should not be so easily dismissed and were of some importance in the 1972 presidential election. First, the data indicate that voters considered style issues as important as position issues. Second, voters were able to detect differences between the candidates on certain style issues. Third, salient style issues and salient position issues are similar in their causal relationship to the vote. These findings lend support to the general conclusion that style issues are an important and rational element of voter deliberations and have several implications for the study of public opinion, the behavior of political leaders, and the adequacy of elections as mechanisms of governmental accountability.This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the Western Political Science Association in Phoenix, March 31-April 2, 1977. The data presented here were gathered under National Science Foundation Grant GS-35408, Robert D. McClure and Thomas E. Patterson, principle investigators. We would like to thank Professor Patterson and McClure for the use of their data and their helpful comments.     

Assessment of home-based behavior modification programs for autistic children: reliability and validity of the behavioral summarized evaluation

Since the publication of Lovaas' (1987) impressive findings, there has been a proliferation of home-based behavior modification programs for autistic children. Parents and other paraprofessionals often play key roles in the implementation and monitoring of these programs. The Behavioral Summarized Evaluation (BSE) was developed for professionals and paraprofessionals to use in assessing the severity of autistic symptoms over the course of treatment. This paper examined the psychometric properties of the BSE (inter-item consistency, factorial composition, convergent validity, and sensitivity to parents' perceptions of symptom change over time) when used by parents of autistic youngsters undergoing home-based intervention. Recommendations for future research are presented.     

Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and the Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis

John R. Freeman Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 267 19th Avenue, Minneapolis, MN 55455 e-mail: pbrandt{at}utdallas.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: freeman{at}polisci.umn.edu Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasinglypopular. But Bayesian approaches to modeling multiple time serieshave not been critically evaluated. This is in spite of thepotential value of these models in international relations,political economy, and other fields of our discipline. We reviewrecent developments in Bayesian multi-equation time series modelingin theory testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. Methodsfor constructing Bayesian measures of uncertainty of impulseresponses (Bayesian shape error bands) are explained. A referenceprior for these models that has proven useful in short- andmedium-term forecasting in macroeconomics is described. Oncemodified to incorporate our experience analyzing political dataand our theories, this prior can enhance our ability to forecastover the short and medium terms complex political dynamics likethose exhibited by certain international conflicts. In addition,we explain how contingent Bayesian forecasts can be constructed,contingent Bayesian forecasts that embody policy counterfactuals.The value of these new Bayesian methods is illustrated in areanalysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of the 1980s.