Assessment of home-based behavior modification programs for autistic children: reliability and validity of the behavioral summarized evaluation

Since the publication of Lovaas' (1987) impressive findings, there has been a proliferation of home-based behavior modification programs for autistic children. Parents and other paraprofessionals often play key roles in the implementation and monitoring of these programs. The Behavioral Summarized Evaluation (BSE) was developed for professionals and paraprofessionals to use in assessing the severity of autistic symptoms over the course of treatment. This paper examined the psychometric properties of the BSE (inter-item consistency, factorial composition, convergent validity, and sensitivity to parents' perceptions of symptom change over time) when used by parents of autistic youngsters undergoing home-based intervention. Recommendations for future research are presented.     

Advances in Bayesian Time Series Modeling and the Study of Politics: Theory Testing, Forecasting, and Policy Analysis

John R. Freeman Department of Political Science, University of Minnesota, 267 19th Avenue, Minneapolis, MN 55455 e-mail: pbrandt{at}utdallas.edu (corresponding author) e-mail: freeman{at}polisci.umn.edu Bayesian approaches to the study of politics are increasinglypopular. But Bayesian approaches to modeling multiple time serieshave not been critically evaluated. This is in spite of thepotential value of these models in international relations,political economy, and other fields of our discipline. We reviewrecent developments in Bayesian multi-equation time series modelingin theory testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. Methodsfor constructing Bayesian measures of uncertainty of impulseresponses (Bayesian shape error bands) are explained. A referenceprior for these models that has proven useful in short- andmedium-term forecasting in macroeconomics is described. Oncemodified to incorporate our experience analyzing political dataand our theories, this prior can enhance our ability to forecastover the short and medium terms complex political dynamics likethose exhibited by certain international conflicts. In addition,we explain how contingent Bayesian forecasts can be constructed,contingent Bayesian forecasts that embody policy counterfactuals.The value of these new Bayesian methods is illustrated in areanalysis of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict of the 1980s.     

Resuscitation injuries complicating the interpretation of premortem trauma and natural disease in children

Minor soft tissues injuries are common in both adults and children who have had cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR). Potentially life-threatening injuries are rare. The pre-arrest history in a resuscitated adult often assists the pathologist to interpret autopsy findings. In contrast, an infant or child may not have a reliable history. In this situation, it may be difficult if not impossible to distinguish resuscitation injuries from pre-existing accidental or inflicted trauma. I describe two children who had significant autopsy-documented injuries initially attributed to abuse. The State filed murder charges against the caretaker in each case. However, further history and review of the medical records suggested that resuscitation rather than pre-arrest trauma caused almost all of the injuries. The State dismissed the charges in the first case. A jury returned a "not guilty" verdict in the second. It is essential to consider the entire history and not just autopsy findings when performing a death investigation.     

Extent, trends, and perpetrators of prostitution-related homicide in the United States

Prostitute women have the highest homicide victimization rate of any set of women ever studied. We analyzed nine diverse homicide data sets to examine the extent, trends, and perpetrators of prostitution-related homicide in the United States. Most data sources substantially under-ascertained prostitute homicides. As estimated from a conservative capture-recapture analysis, 2.7% of female homicide victims in the United States between 1982 and 2000 were prostitutes. Frequencies of recorded prostitute and client homicides increased substantially in the late 1980s and early 1990s; nearly all of the few observed pimp homicides occurred before the late 1980s. These trends may be linked to the rise of crack cocaine use. Prostitutes were killed primarily by clients, clients were killed mainly by prostitutes, and pimps were killed predominantly by pimps. Another conservative estimate suggests that serial killers accounted for 35% of prostitute homicides. Proactive surveillance of, and evidence collection from, clients and prostitutes might enhance the investigation of prostitution-related homicide.     

The review panel process: an algorithm for the conditional release of insanity acquittees

The release of insanity acquittees requires making informed decisions regarding both the presence and severity of an individuals' mental illness and the dangerousness of these individuals. This study evaluated the usefulness of employing structured assessments of mental health and violence risk factors in the conditional release decision-making process. All persons found Not Guilty by Reason of Insanity at East Louisiana Mental Health System, Forensic Division who underwent a review panel between July 1, 1997 and July 1, 1999 were included in this study. The Classification and Regression Tree analysis was utilized to arrive at cutpoints that would optimize the predictive ability of the decision tree analysis. The results indicated that the Community Outpatient Treatment Readiness Profile score was the strongest predictor -- all patients receiving a score of 62 or greater on this scale were recommended to remain at the facility. When women were recommended for release, it was to civil facilities and with moderate levels of symptoms. For males with moderate symptoms, low PCL-R scores were associated with recommendations for release, whereas high scores were associated with recommendations for continued commitment. Our data suggests that algorithms may be useful to governing bodies when making release decisions.     

An Analysis of the Transfer of Undertakings (Protection of Employment) Regulations 2006

This article analyses the Transfer of Undertakings (Protectionof Employment) (TUPE) Regulations 2006, which revoke, entirely,the TUPE Regulations 1981. As well as comprising the UK Government’sresponse to the amending Acquired Rights Directive 1998/50/EC,they purport to fulfil a four-fold aim of increasing the coverageof TUPE in outsourcing situations; clarifying the law on transferconnected dismissals and when employees may agree transfer relatedchanges to employment conditions; providing for the supply bytransferors of employee liability information; and relaxingthe provisions of TUPE in insolvency situations to the extentpermitted by the Acquired Rights Directive 2001/23/EC. It isto be argued that some of these aims are realised in the newRegulations, and others not. And certain areas worthy of newregulation are ignored. What is ultimately apparent howeveris that the new Regulations cannot be taken to be an ‘employers’charter’. In some instances the new Regulations may breathenew life (and litigation) into the law.     

Religious belief, perceptions of human suffering, and support for reproductive genetic technology

Reproductive genetic technologies are becoming more controversial as they become more ubiquitous. The opponents of these technologies are largely religious groups, a fact that leads to the question of why religious groups would be more opposed to these technologies than others. Since all of these technologies are justified by their ability to relieve suffering of some kind, it is hypothesized that the actively religious have a notion of suffering different from that of advocates for these technologies, and this different notion of suffering leads to opposition to the technologies. In this article I report on a qualitative interview study of the religiously active in the United States. I find that the religiously active do have views of suffering that are distinct from the medical consensus, and these views are related to people's conclusions about the advisability of reproductive genetic technologies.     

A cluster analysis of people on Community Treatment Orders in Victoria, Australia

This paper explores the clinical, social and demographic characteristics of 164 people on Community Treatment Orders (CTOs) in one area mental health service in Victoria, Australia. The results of an exploratory cluster analysis are presented to address the question of whether people on Community Treatment Orders can be categorised into statistically reliable, qualitatively distinct groupings. The data are presented in the context of key stakeholder perspectives on the current use and purpose of CTOs. Three stable clusters emerged and each potentially reflects how social dimensions, as well as clinical issues, influence decision making regarding the implementation of CTOs. These findings are important in the context of policy and practice in Victoria, where the use of CTOs is common practice, and orders are generally made for a 12 month period. The potential for improved targeting of CTOs and more specific treatment planning is identified.