A Poisson model of incidents of international terrorism in the United States

Abstract

Various haphazard, and often uncoordinated, efforts have been devoted to discouraging and combatting terrorism. Unfortunately, there has been a noticeable lack of quantitative studies of the problem of terrorism. Nevertheless, it can be expected that the problem of international terrorism will eventually be a focus for operations researchers. A factor fundamental to any OR study is an understanding of the underlying generating process for incidents of terrorism. Based on incidents of terrorism from 1968 to 1974, this paper notes that the Poisson is a good model for the occurrence of incidents of international terrorism in the United States. Results of both chi‐square and Kolmogorov‐Smirnov tests are presented. Finally, an unusual result, inconsistent with popular beliefs, is noted.     

Is the internet an instrument of global democratization?

This article explores the hypothesis that people in less democratic nations will use the Internet newsgroups devoted to those countries as a relatively ‘safe’ form of political discussion and even protest. Also, it is expected that nationals of those countries living overseas will use these newsgroups to more openly discuss politics in those nations than they could otherwise do so. Before turning to a content analysis of the messages posted in non‐United States Usenet groups, the number of these groups and the levels of political discussion in them are quantified. The article quantifies the international usage of the Usenet as a first attempt to find some patterns in this usage that may be politically motivated. After all, many pundits imagine that the Internet will become the vaunted ‘global village’ and source of ‘grass‐roots democracy’, and not merely in the United States. An examination of the content of about 2500 messages in 41 Usenet groups then follows, with a view to establishing the following: how many messages are explicitly political; how many are in opposition to the current government; how many are pro‐government; whether they primarily serve as alternative sources of news; whether they are attempts to recruit people in the subject country and around the world into some sort of political action; and whether richer nations are more likely to have higher levels of discussion in their newsgroups than poorer ones. The findings conclude that newsgroups devoted to countries with lower levels of democratization have a much higher percentage of anti‐government messages than the newsgroups about nations that are more democratic.     

Of miracles and models: The rise and decline of the developmental state in South Korea

This article argues that the South Korean economic 'miracle' was based on the ability of the state to implement a strongly developmental policy. The state was able to do so because, for a time, it was highly insulated from demands from social classes which might have diverted it from the objective of industrialisation. This insulation, or 'relative state autonomy', derived from an historical trajectory which left the state in an unusually dominant position in relation to these classes. Domestic dominance was one factor enabling the state to insert the South Korean economy into world markets in a more advantageous position than would otherwise have been possible. However, its very success in industrialising the country strengthened various class forces, whose demands and intrusion into politics undermined the autonomy of the state. With industrialisation, the state's freedom of manoeuvre was lessened. International influence only reinforced those class pressures inside South Korea. The overall effect was to force a retreat of the state and an end to a developmental policy.     

Cuban Medical Internationalism and its Role in Cuban Foreign Policy

Cuba's medical internationalism is extraordinary, and in many ways the extent of its outreach programme puts the developed world to shame. It is impossible to fit Cuba's actions into any neat theoretical box—quite simply the revolutionary process follows no established paradigm. This exceptionalism is seen both in its approach to foreign relations and in its medical internationalism policy. Indeed, even during the days when it was economically dependent upon the Soviet Union, Cuban actions showed an exceptional degree of political independence. But because Cuba is so different, it is also difficult for developed nations to understand. This is a tremendous pity, for there is much to learn from Cuba's approach to developing sustainable public health systems in poor, Third World countries. There is also a great deal that, on a moral basis, wealthy nations can also learn about Cuba's policy of internationalist solidarity.