A Classification Tree Approach to the Development of Actuarial Violence Risk Assessment Tools

Since the 1970s, a wide body of research has suggested that the accuracy of clinical risk assessments of violence might be increased if clinicians used actuarial tools. Despite considerable progress in recent years in the development of such tools for violence risk assessment, they remain primarily research instruments, largely ignored in daily clinical practice. We argue that because most existing actuarial tools are based on a main effects regression approach, they do not adequately reflect the contingent nature of the clinical assessment processes. To enhance the use of actuarial violence risk assessment tools, we propose a classification tree rather than a main effects regression approach. In addition, we suggest that by employing two decision thresholds for identifying high- and low-risk cases--instead of the standard single threshold--the use of actuarial tools to make dichotomous risk classification decisions may be further enhanced. These claims are supported with empirical data from the MacArthur Violence Risk Assessment Study.     

Discrepancy between CYP2D6 phenotype and genotype derived from post-mortem dextromethorphan blood level

OBJECTIVE: To describe the death of a toddler after a therapeutic dose of dextromethorphan and its investigation. STUDY DESIGN: Case report, cytochrome P450 phenotype and genotype determination in the victim and post-mortem drug redistribution study performed in rats. RESULTS: A 20-month Asian male who received 3 mg of dextromethorphan once at 09:00 h and again at 22:00 h was found dead at 04:35 h. Post-mortem examination showed signs of early bronchopneumonia (bacterial cultures were negative); dextromethorphan and dextrorphan blood concentrations taken from the heart cavity were 500 ng/ml (1. 84 micromol/l) and 200 ng/ml (0.78 micromol/l), respectively. Despite the dextromethorphan level being almost 100-fold higher than expected after therapeutic doses, intentional or unintentional overdose was extremely unlikely; other potential causes were investigated. Post-mortem drug redistribution study performed in rats showed that dextromethorphan does not undergo extensive redistribution after death (6+/-5-fold increase) and could not explain the observed dextromethorphan level. The dextromethorphan/dextrorphan concentration ratio of 2.5 found in this toddler was compatible with a slow CYP2D6 metabolizer phenotype. However, the toddler exhibited a fast metabolizer genotype. Potential reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. CONCLUSION: CYP450 phenotypes derived from post-mortem blood levels should be interpreted with caution and preferably confirmed by a genotype analysis.     

Pulmonary edema in fatal heroin overdose: immunohistological investigations with IgE, collagen IV and laminin - no increase of defects of alveolar-capillary membranes

Pulmonary edema complicating heroin overdosage is a well recognized entity and regarded as the major mechanism contributing to death in heroin addicts. It's pathogenesis is unknown, several mechanisms are discussed: hypoxia-induced increase of pulmonary capillary permeability, depressed myocardial contractility, centrally induced respiratory depression, primary toxic effects on the alveolar capillaries and acute anaphylactic shock. The present study included opiate-related deaths (n=23) and a control group of sudden cardiovascular deaths (n=12) to verify the hypothesis, that defects of the alveolar capillary membranes and/or an acute anaphylactic reaction leads to pulmonary congestion, edema and hemorrhages. Lung specimens were obtained from these 35 autopsies of persons autopsied in the Institute of Forensic Medicine, University of Bonn, in 1997 and 1998. All specimens were examined with hematoxylin-eosin, prussian blue and investigated with immunohistological methods using primary antibodies against collagen IV, laminin and IgE. Defects of the basal laminae of the alveoli were found, demonstrated by laminin and collagen IV, and the number of IgE-positive cells was counted in both groups. There was an increased but not significant number of IgE-positive cells in the heroin-group and defects of the epithelial and endothelial basal laminae were found in both groups without significant differences.     

An insurer's perspective on reform

Individual health insurance markets differ from state to state, and as a result approaches to individual market reforms need to be different. In evaluating approaches, policy makers need to remember that since the decision to purchase health insurance coverage is voluntary, the potential for adverse selection exists. In addition, rather than putting the focus of individual market reforms almost exclusively on access to health insurance for a small number of persons with high-cost health conditions, more attention needs to be put on how to decrease the number of uninsured persons. This includes making the premiums paid for individual health insurance 100 percent tax deductible, similar to those of employer-based health insurance. Finally, market reforms need to treat all types of coverage issued in the individual market the same, whether they are purchased direct for the insurer or through an out-of-state association.     

Statistical examination of hair color as a potential biasing factor in hair analysis

We review eight different data sets in this paper for the purposes of assessing the possibility that reported color of hair can produce a systematic bias in the interpretation of hair assays. We review studies or data sets that include heroin and its metabolites, cocaine and its metabolites, MDMA and its analogs, and amphetamine and methamphetamine. The studies have utilized a variety of different degrees of color categorization, ranging from the simple dichotomy of brown and black, to a high of 12 categories. The mean number of categories reported approaches 6 (mean = 5.875). There are a total of 2791 data points in this analysis. We utilize two major statistical techniques for assessing significance; one-way analysis of variance, and Tukey's Honestly Significant Difference procedure. In circumstances were only dichotomous contrasts are possible, one-way analysis of variance is used. In contrasts involving three or more categorical groups, Tukey's procedure is used. In circumstances where the homogeneity of group variances is not sustained by the Levene statistic, we use the Tamahane procedure, allowing an assessment that assumes unequal variances. The analysis of this data fails to discern a significant color effect. We speculate that it may be that variance is large in many domains affecting analyte recovery from hair. In large groups these variations tend to regress towards a typical or mean value. Thus the data here show that while there are group or aggregate differences in these 'typical' values, they are not great when considered in relation to the within-group variations which exist for those values. It is our view that color may play a role in the accumulation of drugs in hair, however it is likely to account for only a very small part of the complex process of drug accumulation.     

Hair analysis by using radioimmunoassay, high-performance liquid chromatography and capillary electrophoresis to investigate chronic exposure to heroin, cocaine and/or ecstasy in applicants for driving licences

The present paper describes an integrated diagnostic strategy to check the physical fitness of subjects, formerly users of illicit drugs, to obtain a driving license, after having quit their addiction. According to the Italian law, applicants for a driving license with a history of drug abuse must give evidence to have quit this behaviour and to show no risk of relapse in the future. To prove this, at our institute, they undergo medical examination, hair analysis and a urinalysis program on eight seriate samples, collected over about 40 days. About 700 subjects per year are investigated with this strategy. The hair samples are screened for opiates (morphine), cocaine and ecstasy, the most abused illicit substances in our region, by using commercial radioimmunoassays adopting cut-off levels of 0.1 ng/mg. All positive samples and about 10% of negatives are confirmed by high-performance liquid chromatography. Further confirmation of results can be carried out by capillary electrophoresis (and/or GC/MS or MS/MS). In 1998, the prevalence of positives for morphine, cocaine and ecstasy was 4.8, 11.3 and 2.6%, respectively. In this year, for the first time, the percentage of hair samples positive for cocaine was greater than that for opiates. The results of this integrated diagnostic strategy are presented and discussed, with particular emphasis on the comparison between hair analysis on a single sample and seriate urinalyses (on eight samples).