The 1992, 1994 and 1996 elections: A comment and a forecast

A model of the two-way relationship between elections and the economy, previously estimated on historical data for 1916–1988, is applied to the United States elections of 1992, 1994, and 1996. The 1992 result was a surprise to the model since the economy had performed reasonably well that election year. The midterm elections of 1994 were accurately forecast. The Republicans took control of Congress not because of unusual circumstances but because of a normal midterm cycle. President Clinton's chances in 1996 look dim given the current modest growth rate and an electoral bias favoring Republican presidential candidates. But an alternative model, keyed more to the voters choosing Clinton to balance the Republican Congress, gives him a reasonable chance of reelection.     

SYMPOSIUM: RESURGENT ISLAM IN THE MIDDLE EAST

The following is an edited version of the proceedings of a symposium sponsored by the Middle East Policy Council on May 26, 1994, in the Hart Senate Office Building in Washington, DC. Former Senator George McGovern, President of the Council, introduced the panel; Thomas R. Mattair, the Councis Director of Research and Policy Analysis, was the organizer and moderator; Michael Collins Dunn, Senior Analyst of The International Estimate, Inc., and editor of its biweekly newsletter, The Estimate, was the discussant.     

The Federal Solution: Assessment and Prognosis for Nigeria and Africa

Federalism has not been a resounding success in Africa, althoughunitary regimes have had no better record One promising politicalsystem has been the consistently federal and periodically democraticgovernment of Nigeria. The principal challenges facing Nigeria,which are not unlike those facing other heterogeneous Africancountries, are national unity, democratic politics, and socioeconomicdevelopment. Examined here are the nature of these challenges,Nigeria's responses, potential alternatives, and possible implicationsof Nigeria's experience for federal democracy in Africa.     

Books in review

He is the author of Importing Foreign Workers: A Comparison of German and American Policy.     

Generational equity or privatization of social security?

He is primary author of Ties That Bind: The Interdependence of Generations,a study that examines the framing of the generational equity debate. He is currently doing research for a book concerning the planning of retirement of the baby boom generation.