Short-Term Forces and Partisanship

One of the most intriguing aspects of the debate regarding the persistence of party identification is that proponents of different schools of thought have each managed to use the same quasi-experimental data and similar state of the art techniques to defend their point of view. In this article we argue that this debate cannot be resolved with quasi-experimental data alone and propose another method that we believe can help us triangulate in on the correct answer: experimentation. Two experiments are performed and analyzed. The first tests the hypothesis that party identification is updated in response to the vote choice; the second tests the hypothesis that candidate evaluations influence party choices. The results of our experiments provide some additional support for the traditional conception of partisanship as the unmoved mover of American politics.     

THE ART AND SCIENCE OF CHILD CUSTODY EVALUATIONS

Should a child custody evaluation be a clinical tool informed by forensic methods and procedures or a forensic tool informed by clinical experience? The authors conclude that an evaluation requires a delicate blend of scientific thinking, clinical understanding, through observations, appropriate use of psychological tests, and self‐report measures and information from sufficient collateral sources. Evaluators must pay attention to internal biases and integrate them with the relevant literature. Finally, evaluators must remember that their evaluation and reports will be used by both the courts and the family in reaching a decision on behalf of the children.     

Analogical Reasoning as Translation:: The Pragmatics of Transivity

This paper attempts to examine the underlying structure of analogical reasoning in decision making. The immediate (but not exclusive) context is the form of reasoning commonly seen as prevalent in common-law judicial decision making. Following Wittgenstein and Strawson the paper identifies the problem of the contingency of transitivity ofanalogical relations as a serious impediment to analogical reasoning. It then proceeds to offer a method of translation that delineates the borders of contingency and analyticity of transitivity in such cases, as well as proposeshow these borders may be manipulated. The theoretical insight is to treat analogical relations anaphorically, as ``propredicates'.Accordingly, the translation involves constructive functional transformation from the form of meaning as continuum to the form of meaning as n-chotomies. Greimasian semiotics are then critically applied to examine in what sense ``translation' – in this specific sense – can count as the ``deep structure' of analogical/transitive reasoning, and what sucha claim entails in terms of linguistic ideology. Although the model of translation is formal it is not acontextual, and must be supplemented by importation of constitutive practicalconsiderations (i.e. norms) from concrete decision-making contexts. As such this is a case study of the pragmatic functions offormalization – a conception that may seem alien to some. When determining which states-of-affairs are deemed compatible, the formal model is shown to serve as a framework to what eventually becomes a pragmatic device.     

The Neglected Power of Elite Opinion Leadership to Produce Antipathy Toward the News Media: Evidence from a Survey Experiment

Today, most Americans dislike the news media as an institution. This has led to considerable debate about why people dislike the media and how their public standing could be improved. This paper contributes to this literature by using a survey experiment to test the effect of several different considerations on evaluations of the media. It finds, consistent with the broader literature on political persuasion, that elite partisan opinion leadership can powerfully shape these attitudes. Additionally, it finds that tabloid coverage creates antipathy toward the press regardless of predispositions and that horserace coverage has a negative effect on opinions among politically aware citizens on both sides of the political spectrum. Contrary to some claims in the literature, this study finds no detectable effect of news negativity.     

Japanese Foreign Policy in the Middle East: Balancing Economy and Security

Abstract

Although the quest for oil has long been a central concern for resource-poor Japan, its foreign policy in the Middle East does not simply reflect a mercantilist interest in the region's resources. Its desire to remain close to the United States during the North Korea crisis and its nascent competition with China are also critical factors in Japan's Middle East policy. However, Japan lacks an integrated strategy toward the Middle East and as a result the various components of its policy are not always compatible. Hence, while Japan has firmly backed the Bush administration's Iraq policies, and begun discussing a possible free-trade agreement with members of the Gulf Cooperation Council, it has also, until quite recently, simultaneously pursued closer relations with Iran. In lieu of coherent regional strategy, Japan instead possesses a clearly prioritized sense of its interests in the region.     

“Success” in policy piloting: Process,programs, and politics

Research has demonstrated that pilots contain multiple shifting purposes, not all of which relate to simple policy testing or refinement. Judging the success of policy pilots is therefore complex, requiring more than a simple judgment against declared goals. Marsh and McConnell provide a framework against which policy success can be judged, distinguishing program success from process and political success. We adapt Boven's modification of this framework and apply it to policy pilots, arguing that pilot process, outcomes and longer-term effects can all be judged in both program and political terms. We test this new framework in a pilot program in the English National Health Service, the Vanguard program, showing how consideration of these different aspects of success sheds light on the program and its aftermath. We consider the implications of the framework for the comprehensive and multifaceted evaluation of policy pilots.     

Is It the What or the How? The Roles of High‐Policing Tactics and Procedural Justice in Predicting Perceptions of Hostile Treatment: The Case of Security Checks at Ben‐Gurion Airport,Israel

What affects perceptions of hostile treatment by police, characterized by feelings such as humiliation and intimidation? Is it what the police do to the citizen, or is it about how they do it? The important effects of procedural justice are well documented in the policing literature. Yet, it is not clear how high‐policing tactics, coupled with procedural justice, affect one's sense of hostile treatment: is it the case that what the police do does not matter as long as they follow the principles of procedural justice, or do some invasive or unpleasant tactics produce negative emotions regardless of the amount of procedural justice displayed by the officer? In the present study we examine this question in the context of security checks at Ben‐Gurion Airport, Israel. Using a survey of 1,970 passengers, we find that the behavioral elements of procedural justice are an important antidote, mitigating the negative effects of four “extra” screening measures on the perceived hostility of the checks. At the same time, two security measures retain an independent and significant effect. We discuss the implications of our findings and hypothesize about the characteristics of policing practices that are less sensitive to procedural justice.     

Victims' Rights in Criminal Trials: Prospects for Participation

Victims in common law jurisdictions have traditionally been unable to participate in criminal trials for a number of structural and normative reasons. They are widely perceived as 'private parties' whose role should be confined to that of witnesses, and participatory rights for such third parties are rejected as a threat to the objective and public nature of the criminal justice system. However, recent years have witnessed both a major shift in attitude in relation to the role of victims within the criminal justice system and a breakdown in the public/ private divide in criminal justice discourse. This article considers the standing of the victim within the criminal trial against the backdrop of such changes, and examines the arguments for a more radical course of reform that would allow victims to participate actively in criminal hearings as they are able to do in many European jurisdictions.     

确保新丝绸之路的安全

中国重燃雄心,决意沿着丝绸之路的不同分支大力发展贸易,这就带来了一系列全新的传统及非传统安全挑战,中国政府誓言用崭新的安全观应对这些挑战。然而,这些观念无助于促进中国的安全利益。在解决不同安全利益的矛盾方面,中国面临诸多挑战和机遇:对繁荣的追求与安全的维护、经济雄心的必然结果是成为世界最大的经济体、和平崛起与两岸统一和收复失地、外交政策指导思想面临困境。中欧之间的安全合作前景不容乐观。中国安全思维所面临的困境或矛盾,使欧洲面临三大不确定性:太平洋的紧张局势将如何发展?中国将如何捍卫其在新丝绸之路上的利益?太平洋的紧张局势将如何影响中国在欧亚非交汇处的行动?这些不确定性也给欧洲新增了两大战略选择:一是继续与中国在丝绸之路上合作与较量;二是把充满巨大挑战的欧亚非交汇处以及欧洲的近邻作为优先考虑的选项,并接受美国邀请,加入其重返太平洋地区的行动。虽然中国欲与丝绸之路另一端的欧盟建立有意义的合作,以便最终实现责任分担,但前路必将困难重重。