Toulmin's philosophy of argument and its relevance to offender profiling

This study sought to identify the extent to which claims about the probable characteristics of offenders in ‘offender profiles’ were based on substantive arguments. Because Toulmin's (1958) philosophy of argument has been demonstrated as a useful way of breaking down arguments into their constituent parts (Burleson, 1979) we examined the extent to which profiles contained grounds, warrants, backing and rebuttals to support or refute various claims about offenders. Twenty-one profiles, representing a range of ‘profiling styles’, were obtained from a variety of sources. All of these had been used in major criminal investigations either in the UK or internationally. Of the nearly 4,000 claims made, nearly 80% were unsubstantiated. That is, they contained no grounds, warrant, backing or rebuttal. Moreover, less than 31% of the claims were falsifiable. We argue that (a) this demonstrates the need for a careful, systematic evaluation of profiling advice (b) Toulmin's structure is one useful method for evaluating such material and for providing a possible framework for such advice.     

A comparison of Chinese judges' and US judges' knowledge and beliefs about eyewitness testimony

Abstract

We surveyed 170 Chinese judges about their knowledge and beliefs about eyewitness testimony, and compared their answers to a prior survey of 160 US judges. Although the Chinese judges were less knowledgeable than the US judges, both groups had limited knowledge of eyewitness testimony, including for such important issues as whether lay people can distinguish between accurate and inaccurate eyewitnesses. Unlike the US judges, greater knowledge of eyewitness factors for the Chinese judges was not related to beliefs that may be necessary to reduce eyewitness error. Compared to the US judges, the Chinese judges were much less likely to believe that they needed additional eyewitness training and that they knew more about eyewitness testimony than lay persons. We also discuss the impact of culture, legal systems, investigative procedures, and judges' function on the Chinese judges' responses, and the legal reforms that China may need to implement to reduce eyewitness error.     

Reliable and Robust Molecular Sexing of the Hen Harrier (Circus cyaneus) Using PCR‐RFLP Analysis of the CHD 1 Gene

The hen harrier (Circus cyaneus) is a bird of prey that is persecuted in the United Kingdom, and there is a need for a DNA‐based individual identification and sexing system for the use in forensic investigations. This study reports a new set of PCR primers for the chromo‐helicase‐DNA‐binding protein 1 gene, which allows sexing using PCR‐RFLP. Instead of exonic primers that amplify across a large intron, this set consists of a primer within the intron, enabling reduction in amplicon sizes from 356 to 212 bp and 565 to 219 bp in W and Z chromosomes. DNA degradation and dilution experiments demonstrate that this set is significantly more robust than one that amplifies across the intron, and sequencing of the intronic primer‐binding region across several individuals shows that it is highly conserved. While our objective is to incorporate this primer set into an STR‐based individualization kit, it may in the meantime prove useful in forensic or conservation studies.     

The Significance of Adrenal Hemorrhage: Undiagnosed Waterhouse‐Friderichsen Syndrome,A Case Series

A retrospective series of five cases of nontraumatic gross adrenal hemorrhage were identified in 800 consecutive forensic autopsies. All patients were males, of different ethnicities and with ages ranging from 2 to 48 years. All patients had a clinical history and autopsy findings suggestive of sepsis. Pre‐ or postmortem microbiological cultures were variably positive for Pseudomonas aeruginosa, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Staphylococcus aureus, and methicillin‐resistant Staphylococcus aureus. The fifth case was positive for yeast and a coagulase negative staphylococcus; contamination of this culture medium cannot be excluded. No cases had a culture positive for Neisseria meningitidis. We find that the reviewed patients with grossly or microscopically identifiable adrenal hemorrhage were otherwise healthy individuals who died suddenly as a consequence of bacterial infection. In each case, signs and symptoms compatible with premortem adrenal insufficiency were reported; in no instance was the adrenal hemorrhage clinically identified.     

Statistical Evaluation of Alternative Light Sources for Bloodstain Photography

Bloodstain photography is important in forensic applications, especially for bloodstain pattern analysis. This study compares the enhancement effect of bloodstain photography using three different types of light source: fluorescent white light, near‐ultraviolet (UV) light‐emitting diode (LED) light, and 410 nm LED light. Randomized complete block designs were implemented to identify the lighting that would statistically produce the best enhancement results for bloodstains on different types of surfaces. Bloodstain samples were prepared on white cotton, brown carpet, tar road, and wood. These samples were photographed in darkroom conditions using a Canon EOS 50D digital SLR camera, with Canon EFS 60 mm f/2.8 Macro USM lens. Two‐way analysis of variance and Fisher's least significant difference test were used to analyze the contrast of the images. The statistical analysis showed that 410 nm light is the best among the tested lights for enhancing bloodstains on the tested surfaces, where the contrast of bloodstain to background was the highest.     

Modified Midi‐ and Mini‐Multiplex PCR Systems for Mitochondrial DNA Control Region Sequence Analysis in Degraded Samples

Two multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR) systems (Midiplex and Miniplex) were developed for the amplification of the mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) control region, and the efficiencies of the multiplexes for amplifying degraded DNA were validated using old skeletal remains. The Midiplex system consisted of two multiplex PCRs to amplify six overlapping amplicons ranging in length from 227 to 267 bp. The Miniplex system consisted of three multiplex PCRs to amplify 10 overlapping short amplicons ranging in length from 142 to 185 bp. Most mtDNA control region sequences of several 60‐year‐old and 400–500‐year‐old skeletal remains were successfully obtained using both PCR systems and consistent with those previously obtained by monoplex amplification. The multiplex system consisting of smaller amplicons is effective for mtDNA sequence analyses of ancient and forensic degraded samples, saving time, cost, and the amount of DNA sample consumed during analysis.     

Characterization of In Vitro Metabolites of CP 47,497, a Synthetic Cannabinoid,in Human Liver Microsomes by LC‐MS/MS

CP 47,497, a potent cannabinoid receptor type 1 agonist, is the main active ingredient in the herbal mixture “Spice” sold in European countries. The illegal use of “Spice” for its psychoactive effects has become a social issue. In this study, the in vitro metabolism of CP 47,497 was investigated in human liver microsomes to characterize the metabolic fate of CP 47,497. CP 47,497 was incubated with human liver microsomes, and the reaction mixture was analyzed using liquid chromatography‐tandem mass spectrometry. A total of eight metabolites were detected in human liver microsomes and structurally characterized based on mass spectral data. The main metabolic pathways involved hydroxylations or oxygenations. The identified metabolites were mono‐oxygenated metabolites (M1 and M4), mono‐hydroxylated metabolites (M3, M5, M6, M7, and M8), and a di‐oxygenated metabolite (M2). The detection of these metabolites could confirm the presence of CP 47,497 in biological samples; therefore, collectively, they would be excellent indicators of “Spice” drug abuse.     

The poor in Singapore: Issues and options

This article examines the changing patterns of poverty in Singapore. As Singapore's population ages, the poor increasingly includes the elderly. It appears that ascribed factors, such as gender and race, have significant influence on financial security at old age. As the population ages, the adequacy of existing anti-poverty policy is challenged.     

Book reviews

Poverty, Progress and Exclusion: an Economic History of Latin America in the Twentieth Century. By Rosemary Thorp. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press for the Inter‐American Development Bank and the European Union, 1998. Pp.xiv + 369. £20.50. ISBN 1 886938 35 0

Economic Dynamism in the Asia‐Pacific: The Growth of Integration and Competitiveness. Edited by Graham Thompson. London: Routledge, 1998. Pp.402. £50 and £14.99. ISBN 0 415 17273 X and 17274 8

India and Pakistan: The First Fifty Years. Edited by Selig S. Harrison, Paul H. Kreisberg, and Dennis Kux. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999. Pp.xii + 217. £32.50 and £10.95. ISBN 0 521 64185 3 and 64585 9

Agencies in Foreign Aid: Comparing China, Sweden and the United States in Tanzania. Edited by Goran Hyden and Rwekaza Mukandala. New York: St. Martin's Press, 1999. Pp.ix + 246. $69.95. ISBN 0 312 22098 7

Market Integration, Regionalism and the Global Economy. Edited by Richard E. Baldwin, Daniel Cohen, Andre Sapir and Anthony Venables. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999. Pp. xix + 344. £45 and £16.95. ISBN 0 521 64589 1 and 0 521 64181 0

Instruments of Change: Motivating and Financing Sustainable Development. By Theodore Panayotou. Earthscan in association with the United Nations Environment Programme, 1998. Pp.240. £19.95. ISBN 1 85383 467 X

Famine in Africa: Causes, Responses and Prevention. By Joachim von Braun, Tesfaye Teklu and Patrick Webb. Baltimore, MD and London: The Johns Hopkins University Press, 1999. Pp.xvii + 218. £32.50. ISBN 0 8018 6121 7

The East Asian Welfare Model: Welfare Orientalism and the State. Edited by Roger Goodman, Gordon White and Huck‐ju Kwon. London and New York: Routledge, 1998. Pp.206. £17.99. ISBN 0 415 17211 X

Critical Development Theory: Contributions to a New Paradigm. Edited by Ronaldo Munck and Denis O'Hearn. London and New York: Zed Books, 1999. Pp.xx + 217. £39.95 and £22.50. ISBN 1 85649 637 6 and 638 4

Streetlife China: Transforming Culture, Rights and Markets. By Michael Dutton. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press, 1999. Pp.xvi + 304. £13.95 (US$19.95) and £37.50 (US$54.95). ISBN 0 521 63719 8 and 63141 6     

Analyzing the Multidirectional Relationships Between the President,News Media,and the Public: Who Affects Whom?

In order to study presidential leadership and responsiveness, this research focuses on the role of the news media and examines the multidirectional relationships between the president, the news media, and the public. One of the purposes of this study is to examine competing theoretical expectations about the causal direction between the three actors by focusing on their issue stances. The potentially reciprocal influences between the three actors are estimated by using vector autoregression and moving average representation simulations. According to the statistical results, the news media significantly interact with the public and the president. In contrast, the direct relationship between the president and the public is weak or insignificant.