Mixing Habermas with Bayes: Methodological and Theoretical Advances in the Study of Deliberation

Two challenges stand out in the study of deliberation: the development of appropriate methodological tools and the development of more unified analytical frameworks. On the one hand, analysing deliberative processes is demanding and time‐consuming; hence we tend to have only few and non‐randomly selected cases at the group or context level. In addition, the real world of deliberation presents us with a complex matrix of nested, cross‐classified, and repeated speakers. This article shows that Bayesian multi‐level modelling provides an elegant way to tackle these methodological problems. On the other hand, we attempt to enrich comparative institutionalism with individual characteristics and psychologically relevant variables (such as group composition). Focusing on Swiss and German parliamentary debates we show that institutional factors ‐ in particular, consensus systems ‐, the gender composition of committees and plenary sessions, and age matter for the quality of deliberation. Furthermore, we also show that partisan affiliation ‐ government or opposition status of MPs ‐ affects deliberative quality and can refine institutional arguments. We conclude that a multi‐level approach to deliberation focusing on contextual and actor‐related characteristics and using Bayesian hierarchical modelling paves the way toward a more advanced understanding ‐ and methodological handling ‐ of deliberative processes.     

A retrospective on policy development in Ottawa

Abstract: Policy development in the federal government has been characterized by certain constants such as the prominent role of the Department of Finance, Canada's regionalism, and the perennial issue of national unity. Within this framework, however, it is striking how much policy development processes have varied according to who the prime minister was at a particular time. Lester Pearson's years were characterized by “departmental government”: ministers and their departments had considerable autonomy, and matters were brought to cabinet only when they were ripe for decision. The advantages of this system were to some degree offset by a lack of coherence in government operations during this period. Under Pierre Trudeau, there was a major effort to bring systematic approaches to bear on government decisions, with a concomitant increase in the role of the Privy Council Office (PCO). Collective decision-making took up considerably more of ministers' time and left them less time for the management of their departments. The system was found by many to be cumbersome, although some degree of centralization was undoubtedly a necessary response to the growing complexity of government. Brian Mulroney's years, on the other hand, were characterized by a considerable absence of system, supplemented by frequent direct interventions by the pco in operational matters across government. It is not easy to assess these different systems by examining the quality of the decisions that were made under the different prime ministers. Experience illustrates the difficulty of striking the right balance between central direction and ministerial autonomy. The effort must nevertheless be made under each government, with due regard for the lessons of the past. Sommaire: L'élaboration des politiques au gouvernement fédéral se caractérise par certaines constantes telles que le rôle dominant du ministère des Finances, le régionalisme du Canada et l'étemelle question de l'unité nationale. Or, à l'intérieur de ce cadre, il est frappant de constater combien les méthodes d'élaboration des politiques varient en fonction du premier ministre en poste. Les années Lester Pearson se distinguent par le « gouvernement ministériel «, c'est-à-dire que les ministres et leurs ministères avaient une autonomie considérable et ne présentaient les questions au Cabinet qu'au moment de la prise de décision. Les avantages d'une telle démarcheont été quelque peu neutralisés par le manque de cohésion des activitiés du gouvernement à cette époque. Sous Pierre Trudeau, on s'est efforcé de systématiser la manière de prendre les décisions gouvernementales, le Bureau du Conseil Privé (BCP) voyant son rôle s'accroître simultanément. Les prises de décision selon un mode collectif prenaient aux ministres un temps considérable, ce qui leur en laissait moins pour diriger leurs ministères. Beaucoup trouvaient la démarche difficile bien qu'une certaine centralisation s'imposait à la suite de la complexité croissante du gouvernement. Les années Brian Mulroney se caractérisent, pour leur part, par un manque considérable de méthode ponctué par de fréquentes interventions directes du BCP dans les affaires de tout le gouvernement. II n'est pas simple d'évaluer ces différentes périodes en examinant la qualité des décisions prises sous chaque premier ministre. L'expérience montre combien il est difficile de trouver le juste équilibre entre la direction centrale et l'autonomie des ministères. II faut néanmoins, sous chaque gouvernement, faire un effort en ce sens en tenant compte des leçons du passé.     

Who laughs at what?

He has written widely on popular culture. Among his books are Agit-Pop: Political Culture and Communication Theory; Reading Matter: Multidisciplinary Perspectives on Material Culture; Political Culture and Public Opinion;and An Anatomy of Humor;all published by Transaction.     

Political participation in Swiss referenda at federal and cantonal levels: 1879–1981

Political participation in the process of semidirect democracy differs in several important respects from political participation in elections in representative democracies. This study discusses patterns of participation in 300 referenda at the cantonal and federal level in Switzerland during the 1879–1981 period. The purpose of this survey is to account for cross-temporal and cross-cantonal variations in terms of: (a) referenda type, (b) competition intensity, and (c) the influence of a multiple political culture. The findings suggest that distinctive political cultures and life styles, and other collective factors account for turn-out percentages and competition intensity. Voters tend to mobilize essentially to reject constitutional revisions and laws rather than accept them. The significance of cross-temporal differences was found to diminish during the 1952–1981 period. This tendency toward increasing standardization of Swiss political participation does not, however, completely blur the specificity of participation within cantons, suggesting that the multicultural nature of Swiss society is still prevalent.     

Family relationships and social competence during late adolescence

Data from a large sample of late adolescents was used to examine associations between family relationships (reported closeness to parents and siblings) and perceived social competence. Significant positive relationships were found between family bonds and the social competence measures, which included social self-esteem, instrumentality, expressiveness, shyness, and degree of satisfaction/ease in same- and opposite-sex peer relationships. There was no evidence of differential effects of sibling versus parent relationships upon adolescent social competence.This project was supported by NIMH Grant 5 R01 MH34570.Received Ph.D. from Northwestern University.     

Population genetics of nine short tandem repeat loci: allele frequency distribution in a Brazilian population sample

Gene and genotype frequencies in relation to the D3S1358, vWA, FGA, TH01, TPOX, CSF1PO, D5S818, D13S317, and D7S820 loci were determined in a sample of 290 unrelated individuals (204 Caucasians and 86 mulattoes) living in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil. The sex test Amelogenin was also performed in all subjects from our sample, revealing the expected sex in all instances. Allele frequency data obtained from the analysis of these samples were in the usual range of other population groups with similar racial background. In the sample of Caucasian individuals, panmictic proportions were ruled out in relation to TPOX and CSF1PO loci, but only in the latter was the overall frequency of heterozygotes significantly less than expected. In the sample of mulattoes, Hardy-Weinberg proportions were rejected in relation to FGA and CSF1PO loci, but in no instance were the overall numbers of heterozygotes different from the corresponding expected ones under panmixia. Taking into account all this and also the number of tests performed, the degree of genetic heterogeneity of Brazilian populations, and the critical level reached by the significant results (1% < alpha<5%), the departures from panmixia here observed can be considered to be negligible in altering significantly biologic relationship odds calculated under the assumption of random matings.