The Determinants of Vote Intentions in Portugal

This paper offers new insights on theinteractions between economics and politicsin Portugal. We use two unexplored datasets consisting of monthly polls on voteintentions for the main political partiesin Portugal and responses to a consumersurvey containing a battery of questions oneconomic evaluations. The analysis coversthe interval from 1986 to 2001. We findthat: (1) right-wing governments arepenalized for higher inflation while theleft-wing ones are not, (2) left-winggovernments are more penalized forincreases in the unemployment rate; (3)voters base their evaluations ofincumbents' performances on perceptions ofpast and current economic conditions,rather than on expected future economicoutcomes.     

Trends in the Study of Public Administration: Empirical and Qualitative Observations from Public Administration Review, 2000–2009

What are the apparent research and methodological trends in PAR’s content over the past decade? From the perspective of the journal’s 70‐year history, with its aim to “mesh” practitioner and academic knowledge creation, topical coverage since 2000 reflects striking continuity, emphasizing many of the “bread and butter” administrative issues such as planning, human resources, budgeting, and public management. A marked increase in coverage is apparent in the application of more sophisticated quantitative statistical methodology, as well as in the number of female authors, while the number of practitioner authors declined sharply. Throughout the first turbulent decade of the twenty‐first century, three intellectual themes stood out: evaluations of New Public Management, connections between practitioners and academicians, and responsiveness to immediate social, economic, and political challenges. Given the constant demand for usable knowledge, scholars seem to have marginalized attention to the historical context and epistemological foundations of the study. The central challenge in the years ahead will be to effectively use research methods in response to the big questions of government and society that defy measurement. Since many [empiricists], especially the younger, do not know very much about epistemology, they tend to be quite dogmatic about the one set of canons that dominate them. —C. Wright Mills, 1959     

Election results and opportunistic policies: A?new?test?of?the?rational political business cycle model

The literature on the rational PBC suggests that politicians systematically manipulate economic and fiscal conditions before elections to increase their chances of reelection. Most tests of this theory look for evidence of pre-election distortions in fiscal policy. We propose a new test that explores the two-way interaction between the magnitude of the opportunistic distortion and the margin of victory. The test is implemented using a large panel of Portuguese municipalities. The results show that opportunism leads to a larger win-margin for the incumbent and that incumbents behave more opportunistically when their win-margin is small. These results are consistent with the theoretical model.     

Distribution of the minutiae in the fingerprints of a sample of the Spanish population

One of the fundamental aspects of the process of identification through fingerprints is the comparison of the minutiae between the fingermark obtained at the scene of the crime and the suspect's corresponding finger. There is no scientific basis in this process that allows the use of numerical standards, such as those kept in different countries, to obtain the identification. The recent mistakes made in the field of dactyloscopy, together with the growing rigor and scrutiny that forensic evidence undergoes in the legislative and scientific areas, have resulted in the need to reconsider some of the basic principles that support this discipline. A probabilistic estimation of the evidential value is especially necessary; therefore, it is indispensable to know and quantify the variability of the features used in the identification process. The sample studied for this research was obtained from 100 Caucasian men and 100 Caucasian women from the Spanish population, which amounts to a total of 2000 fingerprints. The different types of minutiae were located, identified, and quantified visually on the fingerprint, in four sectors, and inside and outside of a circle, whose radius cut, perpendicularly, fifteen ridges starting from the center cut of the axes that defined the sectors. According to the results obtained in this study, through dactyloscopic identification, the weight of the evidence of a minutia, such as the ridge endings, with frequencies between 55% and 65%, according to the area and gender evaluated, cannot be the same as that of a bifurcation or convergence, with frequencies of 13-18% or those of other minutiae that show frequencies lower than 3%. The significant differences found in the topological distribution of the endings, bifurcations, and convergences show the need to take into account, for its demonstrational value, the finger area in which they are evaluated. The significant association observed between the types of minutiae and the different fingers revealed a greater frequency of endings on the thumb and index fingers, and bifurcations and convergences on the middle, ring, and little fingers.     

The forgotten worker: Neglected aspects of public service in an information age

One of the most consistent themes among contemporary administrative theorists is that the workplace of the future will be a more hospitable environment for public workers than is currently the case. Decentralization, participative management, and intrinsically satisfying work are commonly forecast. Using survey data from state employees, this study identifies a large class of civil servants that has not yet, and probably will not, enjoy the enriched jobs that are so often predicted. The discussion identifies a number of factors in the work environment of these workers that are likely to frustrate attempts to make their jobs more meaningful and pleasant. Having acknowledged their existence and assessed their plight, the study concludes with a summary of measures that can be taken to address the needs of these “forgotten workers.”     

Do Electoral Risks Moderate the Effect of Partisan and Electoral Cycles on Debt-Financed Local Spending?

Governments’ use of debt as a political instrument has been widely studied from the perspective of partisan and electoral cycles, mainly concerning central government. On the whole, previous studies have attempted to determine the effects of political ideology and the proximity of elections on the opportunistic use of public spending. The current study aims to broaden the scope of attention to the effect of partisan and electoral cycles on debt, by means of a broader consideration of the motives that lead politicians to take on a deficit and that are usually linked to the associated electoral risk. More particularly, we examine whether, during the electoral period, greater confidence in re-election can modify party behaviour concerning the use of public spending, and if so, whether the change is greater or smaller depending on the ruling party’s ideology. The results obtained show that local administrations need to incur debt, although politicians take on more liability than is appropriate to their demographic and economic characteristics, especially in an election year. It was also found that political stability favours a reduction in the public deficit, a pattern that is maintained in electoral periods. This effect was found to be independent of the partisan cycle.     

Minimal Y-chromosome haplotypes plus DYS287 in Jewish populations

POPULATION: A total of 71 Jewish individuals obtained from the collection of The National Laboratory for the Genetics of Israeli Populations at Tel-Aviv University: 14 Ashkenazi, 21 Sephardic (from Turkey), 23 North African (from Morocco, Libya and Tunicia) and 13 Oriental (from Iraq and Iran).     

Genetic polymorphisms at four STR loci from the HLA region in a Venezuelan population

POPULATIONS: Whole blood samples from 74 unrelated healthy individuals were collected. The donors' sample included Venezuelan mestizos from various regions of the country, but mostly from the resident population of Caracas City. A Venezuelan mestizo is the offspring of a mating between a native Venezuelan and a person born in Europe, mainly in Spain.     

Results of the 2003-2004 GEP-ISFG collaborative study on mitochondrial DNA: focus on the mtDNA profile of a mixed semen-saliva stain

We report here a review of the seventh mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) exercise undertaken by the Spanish and Portuguese working group (GEP) of the International Society for Forensic Genetics (ISFG) corresponding to the period 2003-2004. Five reference bloodstains from five donors (M1-M5), a mixed stain of saliva and semen (M6), and a hair sample (M7) were submitted to each participating laboratory for nuclear DNA (nDNA; autosomal STR and Y-STR) and mtDNA analysis. Laboratories were asked to investigate the contributors of samples M6 and M7 among the reference donors (M1-M5). A total of 34 laboratories reported total or partial mtDNA sequence data from both, the reference bloodstains (M1-M5) and the hair sample (M7) concluding a match between mtDNA profiles of M5 and M7. Autosomal STR and Y-STR profiling was the preferred strategy to investigate the contributors of the semen/saliva mixture (M6). Nuclear DNA profiles were consistent with a mixture of saliva from the donor (female) of M4 and semen from donor M5, being the semen (XY) profile the dominant component of the mixture. Strikingly, and in contradiction to the nuclear DNA analysis, mtDNA sequencing results yield a more simple result: only the saliva contribution (M4) was detected, either after preferential lysis or after complete DNA digestion. Some labs provided with several explanations for this finding and carried out additional experiments to explain this apparent contradictory result. The results pointed to the existence of different relative amounts of nuclear and mtDNAs in saliva and semen. We conclude that this circumstance could strongly influence the interpretation of the mtDNA evidence in unbalanced mixtures and in consequence lead to false exclusions. During the GEP-ISFG annual conference a validation study was planned to progress in the interpretation of mtDNA from different mixtures.