Frequency of monotonicity failure under Instant Runoff Voting: estimates based on a spatial model of elections

It has long been recognized that Instant Runoff Voting (IRV) suffers from a defect known as nonmonotonicity, wherein increasing support for a candidate among a subset of voters may adversely affect that candidate’s election outcome. The expected frequency of this type of behavior, however, remains an open and important question, and limited access to detailed election data makes it difficult to resolve empirically. In this paper, we develop a spatial model of voting behavior to approach the question theoretically. We conclude that monotonicity failures in three-candidate IRV elections may be much more prevalent than widely presumed (results suggest a lower bound estimate of 15 % for competitive elections). In light of these results, those seeking to implement a fairer multi-candidate election system should be wary of adopting IRV.     

Cross-Validation of Supplemental Test of Memory Malingering Scores as Performance Validity Measures

Assessment of the validity of neuropsychological test data has become an ensconced aspect of the assessment process. Among the more popular free-standing performance validity measures (PVMs) is the Test of Memory Malingering (Tombaugh 1996). Given the popularity of this measure, a number of researchers (i.e., Trial 1 (Denning, 2012); TOMMe10 (Denning, 2012); Albany Consistency Index (Gunner, Miele, Lynch, & McCaffrey, 2012)) have sought to expand its utility by increasing the number of scoring approaches associated with its administration. This paper aimed to cross-validate prior work by examining the performance of these measures in a mixed clinical sample of veterans referred for neuropsychological evaluation. All five examined measures provided good to excellent discrimination of patients determined to be putting forth poor effort based on failure of two or three alternate measures of performance validity. Traditional scoring approaches revealed high rates of specificity, with lower rates of sensitivity. The newer measures performed well for both sensitivity and specificity at higher base rates. However, predicted performance in low base rate populations (i.e., 0.10) using the newly derived scoring failed to reach predetermined cutoffs for specificity (0.90). Further examination of the cumulative performance of the scoring approaches indicated that administration of only two initial scoring indices was necessary to obtain a high rate of classification.     

Do school disciplinary policies have positive social impacts? Examining the attenuating effects of school policies on the relationship between personal and peer delinquency

Purpose

Empirical research has yet to demonstrate that strict school disciplinary policies deter student misconduct. However, underlying the null and negative effects observed in prior research may be competing social impacts. What is missing from prior research is an acknowledgement that the deviance amplification effects of criminogenic risk factors may be partially offset by the general deterrence effects of strict school sanctions.

Methods

Using data from the school administrator questionnaire, the in-school interview, and the in-home interview from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, this study employs logistic hierarchical models to investigate whether strict school sanctions condition the relationship between personal and peer smoking, drinking, and fighting.

Results

Results indicate that the effects of peer smoking, drinking, and fighting on corresponding respondent delinquency are attenuated in schools with strict sanction policies for these behaviors.

Conclusions

Results suggest that school policies can aid in preventing crime in unanticipated ways, for example, by reducing the crime-inducing effects of having delinquent peers. Prior research may therefore be unintentionally discounting the general deterrence effects of school disciplinary policies by neglecting the moderating mechanisms through which these policies operate.     

The Effects of Political Risk on Different Entry Modes of Foreign Direct Investment

Although numerous studies document the effect of political institutions on foreign direct investment (FDI), few works in the political economy literature have investigated the link between political institutions and the mode of entry chosen by investors, be it mergers and acquisitions, joint ventures, or greenfield investments. Using panel data for 111 developing countries covering 1980–2006, we find that countries with political institutions that uphold good governance tend to attract higher levels of mergers and acquisitions, as opposed to joint ventures and greenfield investments, because such institutions help to mitigate the special risks faced by merger and acquisition investors. Our findings provide a nuance for understanding the different effects of political institutions based on the particular mode of entry.     

LEGAL AND REGULATORY MODEL FOR THE AUDIT PROFESSION： THE UK AND CHINESE MODELS COMPARED

The article discusses whether the UK＇s liberal regulatory model for the audit profession could benefit China as it continues its reform towards a western-inspired liberal market economy. China has already carried out substantial reforms.＂ the disaffiliation programme, audit industry consolidation, and the diffusion of international audit norms. However, substantial deficiencies in the Chinese audit profession remain, and corporate audit continues to lack credibility. Adopting a system modelled on that used in the UK could resolve these issues. However, if China chose to adopt the UK＇s liberal regulatory model, it would not only require economic reform, but also structural reform to its political system. This would include removing conflicts of interest between the audit profession and companies controlled by public authorities; the development of an independent self-regulatory system accountable to the judiciary; corporate democratisation; the development of private enforcement and the introduction of an independent judicial system.     

American Politics Today: An Interview with Frances Fox Piven

Readers of New Political Science know Frances Fox Piven as the author or co-author of a series of path-breaking articles and books on the development of American social policies, political mobilization and voter turnout, and the attack on the welfare state. She is also a supporter of long standing of this journal and its sponsor, the Caucus for a New Political Science. In the last year Piven has come under attack by FOX News host Glenn Beck and other right-wing activists for ideas she developed in the 1960s with the late Richard Cloward. Beck and others have been keen to link Piven and Cloward's analysis in far-fetched ways to the economic policies of the Obama administration. In this interview Piven interprets the meaning of the right-wing attacks and discusses the state of contemporary American politics more broadly. She comments on the Obama administration's major policies and the prospects for political mobilization and offers advice for progressive scholars in the early stages of their careers.     

Personality traits of municipal politicians and staff

Abstract: Conflict between elected officials and civil servants is not an uncommon occurrence at the city level and it may at times paralyze the organization. The purpose of this article is to determine whether certain basic personality traits among municipal politicians and public servants could explain why the two groups have differing perspectives and why they may at times have difficulty working together. While they can be a source of considerable tension, these differing traits can also be seen as complementary, in which case they might enhance the organization's performance. Sommaire: Les conflits entre les responsables élus et les fonctionnaires ne sont pas quelque chose de rare à l'échelle des villes et ils peuvent parfois paralyser l'organisme. L'objet du présent article est de déterminer si certains traits de personnalité chez les responsables politiques municipaux et les fonctionnaires pourraient expliquer pourquoi les deux groupes ont des perspectives différentes et pourquoi ils peuvent parfois avoir des difficultés à collaborer. Alors qu'ils peuvent être une source de tension considérable, ces différents traits de personnalité peuvent aussi être considérés comme complémentaires et, dans ce cas, ils pourraient renforcer la performance de l'organisme.