Evolution,uncertainty, and the asymptotic efficiency of policy

Public Choice - Politics, like any social system, involves selection mechanisms. This paper presents a model of politics as an evolutionary process. Our model yields three main results. First, the...     

Radiographic age estimation based on degenerative changes of vertebrae

Age estimation is an important component of decedent identification. When assessing adult remains, anthropologists frequently use gross examination of skeletal elements, such as clavicles, ribs, and pubic symphyses. For fleshed bodies, this requires the removal of these elements and maceration prior to analysis. A new method was developed using radiographic imaging to estimate age from degenerative changes of the lower thoracic and upper lumbar vertebrae. This technique will complement anthropological age estimation methods in young and middle-aged adults and may serve as a stand-alone method for older individuals. Digital radiographs from 240 medical examiner cases were evaluated. The sample included 120 females and 120 males between the ages of 18 and 101 years. A 3-phased scoring system was used for the target vertebrae. Transition analysis was conducted on binned average scores and a Bayesian approach was used to assign age intervals. At the 90% credible interval, individuals in Bin 1 were under 36 years of age while those in Bin 3 were over 47 years of age. Individuals in Bin 2 showed too much age variation to be informative. No significant differences were found between males and females. These findings will be especially useful in the age estimation of older adults and may eliminate the need for skeletal sampling in medicolegal cases where advanced degenerative changes are radiographically observed in the lower thoracic and/or upper lumbar vertebrae. This method was developed for use on fleshed individuals but may also be applicable to skeletonized remains.     

Only the Bad Die Young: The Correlates of Organizational Death for Far-Right Extremist Groups

The domestic far-right movement has existed in the United States for many years. During that time, groups have appeared, disappeared, and reappeared. Unfortunately, very little is known about what causes these groups to disband. Prior research has focused on long-lived groups, but the majority of extremist or terrorist groups fail to survive for an extended period of time. This study examined a variety of external and internal correlates of organizational death identified from both terrorism and organizational literature, to empirically test which correlates lead to a group dying young.     

Repression,opportunity, and innovation: The evolution of terrorism in Xinjiang,China

How does state repression affect the incidence and impact of terrorism? This study conducts a process tracing analysis of the ongoing contention between the Uyghur separatist movement and the Chinese state to provide a plausible explanation for the present lack of consensus on this question. Relying on insights from collective action theory, it argues that although repression was initially successful in curtailing the opportunistic use of terrorism, novel political opportunity allowed some separatists to adopt innovations, such as suicide bombing, to circumvent repression. Repression has since proved ineffective in quelling terrorism, and will likely remain incapable of forestalling future terrorist innovations.     

Surveying American State Police Agencies About Lone Wolves,Far-Right Criminality,and Far-Right and Islamic Jihadist Criminal Collaboration

This study presents state police agencies’ perceptions about three significant terrorism issues on which there is little empirical research. All three issues have significant implications for understanding the role of state police agencies in responding to terrorism threats. First, the authors investigated whether the respondents believed that supporters of specified extremist movements tended to commit crimes as lone wolves, with others, or both alone and with others. Second, they were asked to provide data to gauge how often far-right extremists committed 13 crime types that varied in magnitude and motivation. Third, they were asked if they had knowledge about whether far-right extremists and Islamic jihadists had cooperated to commit crimes. These data were collected by surveying the 50 state police agencies in the United States. The results indicate that state police officials are concerned with both group and lone-wolf activities. Importantly, there was variation in the potential for lone-wolf crimes when comparing different types of extremist movements. The results indicate that far-right extremists are involved in a range of terrorist, preparatory, and routine criminal activities, but this involvement varies by region. Two state police agencies also indicated that they knew of Islamic and far-right collaboration. The study identified two other instances of direct collaboration and a number of other interesting cases through open source searches. The article concludes with a discussion of the policy implications of the findings and outlines directions for future research.