The Burglary Boost: A Note on Detecting Contagion Using the Knox Test

Objectives

A large body of literature in quantitative criminology finds that the spatio-temporal clustering of burglary is greater than one would expect from chance alone. This suggests that such crimes may exhibit a “boost” effect, wherein each burglary increases the risk to nearby locations for a short period. In this study, we demonstrate that standard tests for spatio-temporal dependence have difficulty distinguishing between clustering caused by contagion and that caused by changing relative risks. Therefore, any estimates of the boost effect drawn from these tests alone will be upwardly biased.

Methods

We construct an agent-based model to generate simulated burglary data, and explore whether the Knox test can reliably distinguish between contagion (one burglary increases the likelihood of another burglary nearby) and changes in risk (one area gets safer while another gets more dangerous). Incorporating insights from this exercise, we analyze a decade of data on burglary events from Washington, DC.

Results

We find that (1) absent contagion, exogenous changes in relative risk can be sufficient to produce statistically significant Knox ratios, (2) if risk is changing over time, estimated Knox ratios are sensitive to one’s choice of time window, and (3) Knox ratios estimated from Washington, DC burglary data are sensitive to one’s choice of time window, suggesting that long-run changes in relative risk are, in part, driving empirical estimates of burglary’s boost effect.

Conclusions

Researchers testing for contagion in empirical time series should take precautions to distinguish true contagion from exogenous changes in relative risks. Adjusting the time window of analysis is a useful robustness check, and future studies should be supplemented with new approaches like agent-based modeling or spatial econometric methods.

     

The Role of Site Variance in the American Judicature Society Field Study Comparing Simultaneous and Sequential Lineups

Objectives

Police departments often use photo lineups for eyewitness identification purposes. A widely adopted lineup reform designed to reduce eyewitness misidentifications involves switching from the standard simultaneous photo presentation format to a sequential format. These two lineup procedures were recently tested in the American Judicature Society (AJS) field study, which was conducted in four different police jurisdictions. The results from two phases of that investigation reached opposite conclusions as to which lineup procedure is superior, and the purpose of our current investigation was to elucidate the role of site variance in shaping those contrasting conclusions.

Methods

In previous analyses, the field study data were either (1) aggregated across all four study sites or (2) drawn from only one study site (Austin, Texas). Here, we analyze the data separately for the Austin study site, where 69 % of the eyewitnesses were tested, and the other three study sites combined, where 31 % of the eyewitnesses were tested.

Results

The results indicate significant site variance between the Austin and non-Austin study sites. In addition, the results suggest that aggregating the data across sites played a determinative role in creating the apparent disagreement about which lineup procedure is diagnostically superior.

Conclusions

Once large differences across the AJS study sites are taken into consideration, there is no longer any disagreement about which lineup procedure is superior. The simultaneous procedure is diagnostically superior to the sequential procedure, but the sequential procedure sometimes induces more conservative responding (a result that can and often does masquerade as diagnostic superiority).

     

The legal and administrative processes in adoption: views and experiences of newly formed adoptive families

The early stages of adoptive placements are important in achieving successful long-term outcomes for adopted children and their families. This paper reports on findings from the Wales Adoption Study, in which adoptive parents shared their views and experiences of the legal and administrative processes in obtaining an adoption order. Parents described a range of difficulties that added to anxieties and delays. These arose mainly through poor communication about the steps in the legal process and avoidable administrative errors or oversights. Some parents also experienced lack of information and support regarding agreed contact arrangements and work with their child to help them make sense of their adoptive status.     

Mutual Best Friendship Involvement, Best Friends�� Rejection Sensitivity, and Psychological Maladaptation

Rejection sensitivity (RS) refers to the tendency to anxiously expect, readily perceive, and overreact to experiences of possible rejection. RS is a clear risk factor for psychological maladaptation during early adolescence. However, there is growing evidence of significant heterogeneity in the psychological correlates of RS. To investigate when RS poses the greatest psychological risk during early adolescence, this study examines mutual best friendship involvement (or lack thereof) and the best friends?? RS as potential moderators of the associations between RS and psychological difficulties. Participants were 150 7th grade students (58 boys; M age = 13.05 years) who nominated their best friends, and reported on their RS, social anxiety, and self-esteem. Results from a series of hierarchical multiple regression analyses indicated that mutual best friendship involvement and best friends?? RS were both significant moderators when fear of negative evaluation (a type of social anxiety) served as the dependent variable. The association between RS and fear of negative evaluation was stronger for adolescents without mutual best friends than adolescents with mutual best friends. In addition, the association between RS and fear of negative evaluation was the strongest for adolescents whose best friends were highly rejection sensitive (relative to adolescents whose best friends were moderately or low in RS). Findings highlight the importance of considering best friendships in studies of RS and strongly suggest that, although having mutual best friendships may be protective for rejection sensitive adolescents, having a rejection sensitive best friend may exacerbate difficulties. The significance of friends in the lives of rejection sensitive adolescents is discussed as well as possible applied implications of the findings and study limitations.     

THE CASCADING EFFECTS OF ADOLESCENT GANG INVOLVEMENT ACROSS THE LIFE COURSE*

The short‐run deleterious effects of gang involvement during adolescence have been well researched. However, surprisingly little empirical attention has been devoted to understanding how gang involvement in adolescence influences life chances and criminal behavior in adulthood. Drawing on the life‐course perspective, this study argues that gang involvement will lead to precocious transitions that, in turn, will have adverse consequences on the fulfillment of adulthood roles and statuses in the economic and family spheres. Moreover, problems fulfilling these conventional roles are hypothesized then to lead to sustained involvement in criminal behavior in adulthood. Using data from a sample of males from the Rochester Youth Development Study, results from structural equation models support the indirect link between gang membership and noncriminal and criminal outcomes in adulthood. Specifically, gang involvement leads to an increase in the number of precocious transitions experienced that result in both economic hardship and family problems in adulthood. These failures in the economic and family realms, in turn, contribute to involvement in street crime and/or arrest in adulthood. Implications for the criminal desistance process are discussed.     

Evaluation of maxillary sinus dimensions in gender determination using helical CT scanning

Gender determination is an important step in identification in forensic medicine. CT measurements of maxillary sinuses may be useful to support gender identification. This study was undertaken to study the accuracy and reliability of maxillary sinus dimensions measurement in gender classification through the use of reconstructed helical CT images. Eighty-eight patients (43 men and 45 women) with age range from 20 to 49 years were selected in this study. The width, length, and height of the maxillary sinuses in addition to the total distance across both sinuses were measured. Data were subjected to discriminant analysis for gender using multiple regression analysis. Maxillary sinus height was the best discriminant parameter that could be used to study sexual dimorphism with an overall accuracy of 71.6%. Using multivariate analysis, 74.4% of male sinuses and 73.3% of female sinuses were sexed correctly. The overall percentage for sexing maxillary sinuses correctly was 73.9%. It can be concluded that reconstructed CT image can provide valuable measurements for maxillary sinuses and could be used for sexing when other methods of sexing are not conclusive.