Testing What Matters (If You Must Test at All): A Context‐Driven Approach to Substantive and Statistical Significance

For over a half century, various fields in the behavioral and social sciences have debated the appropriateness of null hypothesis significance testing (NHST) in the presentation and assessment of research results. A long list of criticisms has fueled the so‐called significance testing controversy. The conventional NHST framework encourages researchers to devote excessive attention to statistical significance while underemphasizing practical (e.g., scientific, substantive, social, political) significance. I introduce a simple, intuitive approach that grounds testing in subject‐area expertise, balancing the dual concerns of detectability and importance. The proposed practical and statistical significance test allows the social scientist to test for real‐world significance, taking into account both sampling error and an assessment of what parameter values should be deemed interesting, given theory. The matter of what constitutes practical significance is left in the hands of the researchers themselves, to be debated as a natural component of inference and interpretation.     

The “Europeanization” of the Basel process: Financial harmonization between globalization and parliamentarization

Public policy initiatives aimed at the prevention of future financial crises originate with global harmonization in the form of executive standards issued by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision. This article explores the role of the European Parliament (EP) in the process of adapting the standards in European Union legislation passed in 2013 as the Capital Requirements Regulation/Capital Requirements Directive IV. Unlike accounts casting the EP as increasingly dependent upon outside sources in order to meet its enhanced legislative role, we find it increasingly dexterous in developing and using in‐house policy ideas, expertise, and not least a common sense of institutional purpose. Notable EP successes in final legislation include (but are not restricted to) a headline cap on bankers' bonuses in the face of entrenched business and national interests. The argument is developed by drawing upon a broad range of interviews together with other primary and secondary sources, tracing the contribution of the EP from the early stages of agenda‐setting through to the development of an “esprit de corps” among the committee lead team which survived intact throughout the “black box” of trilogue negotiations. Besides illuminating the notoriously opaque trilogue process, the analysis also contributes to contemporary debates about whether the EP's increased legislative powers are resulting in a shift away from its traditional allegiances with diffuse interests toward a greater engagement with producer sources in order to fulfill requirements for policy expertise.     

The succession of policy termination

Despite the cessation of a variety of governmental organisations, policies and programmes in the UK throughout the 1980s and 1990s, the termination concept which emerged during the late 1970s remains heavily under utilised. This is attributed partly to the effects of the same incremental practices which termination was designed to solve; partly to the difficulties of distinguishing the categories of ‘termination’ from ‘succession’ ; and partly to Kaufman's assertion that organisational survival was a matter of chance, and therefore not fruitful to study. Academic interest in governmental cessations remains firmly rooted in the termination of organisations; much less attention has been paid to the ending of policies and programmes. Management science research can be used to challenge assertions about the lack of pattern in organisational survival, and the way in which political science has operationalised the concept of incerementalist, suggesting the applicability of semi rationalist techniques in an incrementalist world. Using a hierarchical reformulation of de Leon's 1978 categorisation of governmental functions, organisations, policies and programmes it is here suggested that ‘termination’ and ‘succession’ are distinct. In doing so, the aim is to demonstrate the practical utility of the termination concept, both for analysis, and for practitioners whose interest is centred on the opportunity cost savings which cessations can make available.     

Looking for Intel? … or Looking for Answers? Reforming Military Intelligence for a Counterinsurgency Environment

We analyze the recent Flynn Report and assess its implications for the future of military intelligence in Afghanistan. In particular, we argue that the report seeks to expand the substantive tasks of the military intelligence practitioner, while collapsing non-trivial aspects of existing organizational hierarchies. We argue that implementation of the Flynn Report's proposals would match poorly with the traditional nature of military intelligence and the realities of human resources constraints in the military. Further, the resulting scale of unfiltered data such a system would produce might serve to overwhelm rather than assist decision-makers. Finally, we conclude that the problems expressed in the Flynn Report should not be traced to the military intelligence apparatus per se, but rather to the inability of US political leadership to map out a clear vision for current operations – both in Afghanistan, and in the counterinsurgency environment in general.     

The psychometric properties of the Anger Bodily Sensations Questionnaire (ABSQ)

The Anger Bodily Sensations Questionnaire (ABSQ) is a newly developed self-report instrument for measuring bodily sensations related to anger in interpersonal situations. In this study, we investigated the psychometric properties of the ABSQ in a sample of 70 offenders and a sample of 100 secondary vocational students. Results indicated that the internal consistency and test-retest reliability of the instrument were good. An explorative factor analysis carried out on the ABSQ data of the combined sample yielded three factors. Support was found for the concurrent validity of the instrument. In both samples, the total score of the ABSQ showed positive correlations with measures of bodily awareness, social anxiety, anger, and aggression. Altogether, results suggest that the ABSQ appears to be a reliable and valid questionnaire. Further research is needed to examine the psychometric properties of the ABSQ in larger offender and non-clinical samples.     

The realism debate and the politics of modern art in early postwar Japan

This article examines the realism debate (riarizumu ronsō) that took place between 1946 and 1950 as a forum in which ideas on artistic form, the role of the artist in society, and the social relevance of art come into focus in a way that allows us to see how questions such as Japan's modernity, the recent experience of fascism, and the challenges of rebuilding culture during the early cold war were taken up by leading cultural figures in the field of the visual arts. Occurring alongside discussions of how the art world could be reformed to avoid the failures of fascism, the debate served as an occasion to re-examine the history of modern art in Europe and Japan and to consider the question of artistic representation in a way that opened the most fundamental question of art's relationship to the world and promised to begin the process of envisioning it anew. The debate involved three camps which I label social realism (represented by Hayashi Fumio and Nagai Kiyoshi), modernist realism (Hijikata Tei’ichi), and avant-garde realism (Uemura Takachiyo, Okamoto Tarō, and Hanada Kiyoteru). While assessing their points of agreement and disagreement, I argue that the debate set the stage for debates in the 1950s and beyond.     

The (Dis)Advantage of Certainty: The Importance of Certainty in Language

How can legal decision makers increase the likelihood of a favorable response from other legal and social actors? To answer this, we propose a novel theory based on the certainty expressed in language that is applicable to many different legal contexts. The theory is grounded in psychology and legal advocacy and suggests that expressing certainty enhances the persuasiveness of a message. We apply this theory to the principal–agent framework to examine the treatment of Supreme Court precedent by the Federal Courts of Appeal. We find that as the level of certainty in the Supreme Court's opinion increases, the lower courts are more likely to positively treat the Court's decision. We then discuss the implications of our findings for using certainty in a broader context.     

Justices and Legal Clarity: Analyzing the Complexity of U.S. Supreme Court Opinions

Legal clarity is important to understand and measure because of its connection to the rule of law. We provide the first systematic examination of the clarity of Supreme Court opinions and discover five important results. First, certain justices systematically craft clearer opinions than others. Justices Scalia and Breyer write the clearest opinions, while Justice Ginsburg consistently writes the most complex opinions. Second, ideology does not predict clarity in majority or concurring opinions. Third, all justices write clearer dissents than majority opinions, while minimum winning coalitions produce the clearest majority opinions. Fourth, justices across the board write clearer opinions in criminal procedure cases than in any other issue area. Finally, opinions that formally alter Court precedent render less clear law, potentially leading to a cycle of legal ambiguity.