Intoxicated eyewitnesses: Better than their reputation?

According to law enforcement, many witnesses are intoxicated either at the time of the crime, the interview, or both (Evans et al., Public Policy Law 15(3):194-221, 2009). However, no study to date has examined whether intoxicated witnesses' recall is different from sober witnesses' and whether they are more vulnerable to misinformation using an ecologically valid experimental design. Intoxicated, placebo, and sober witnesses observed a live, staged theft, overheard subsequent misinformation about the theft, and took part in an investigative interview. Participants generally believed they witnessed a real crime and experienced a real interview. Intoxicated witnesses were not different from placebo or sober witnesses in the number of accurate details, inaccurate details, or "don't know" answers reported. All the participants demonstrated a misinformation effect, but there were no differences between intoxication levels: Intoxicated participants were not more susceptible to misinformation than sober or placebo participants. Results are discussed in the light of their theoretical and applied relevance.     

The suitability of using domestic pigs (Sus spp.) as human proxies in the geophysical detection of clandestine graves

Research in many forensic science fields commonly uses domestic pigs (Sus spp.) as proxies for human remains, due to their physiological and anatomical similarities, as well as being more readily available. Unfortunately, previous research, especially that which compares the decompositional process, has shown that pigs are not appropriate proxies for humans. To date, there has not been any published research that specifically addresses whether domestic pigs are adequate human proxies for the geophysical detection of clandestine graves. As such, the aim of this paper was to compare the geophysical responses of pig cadavers and human donor graves, in order to determine if pigs can indeed be used as adequate human proxies. To accomplish this, ground penetrating radar (GPR) and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) responses on single and multiple pig cadaver graves were compared to single and multiple human donor graves, all of which are in known locations within the same geological environment. The results showed that under field conditions, both GPR and ERT were successful at observing human and pig burials, with no obvious differences between the detected geophysical responses. The results also showed that there were no differences in the geophysical responses of those who were clothed and unclothed. The similarity of the responses may reflect that the geophysical techniques can detect graves despite what their contents are. The study implications suggest that experimental studies in other soil and climate conditions can be easily replicated, benefiting law enforcement with missing persons cases.     

International Cooperation,Spoiling, and Transnational Terrorism

Do interstate relations influence the sources and targets of transnational terrorism? A considerable body of recent research suggests that the answer to this question is yes, and that one state may sponsor terrorist attacks to weaken the bargaining positions of other states. We suggest, in contrast, that positive or cooperative actions invite terrorist attacks from a different source: nonstate groups wishing to spoil interstate cooperation that they oppose. We assess this argument with a dyadic dataset using monthly data on transnational terrorist attacks and cooperative and noncooperative actions between states. Our results suggest that spoiling in response to interstate cooperation is an important determinant of transnational terrorism.     

Treating alcohol-related violence: a feasibility study of a randomized controlled trial in prisons

Purpose: There is a lack of good-quality outcome evaluations of interventions for offenders whose crimes are alcohol-related. Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are considered gold standard in treatment evaluations. Here, we report on a feasibility study for an RCT of an alcohol-related violence intervention, Control of Violence for Angry, Impulsive Drinkers (COVAID). Method: 115 adult male prisoners were randomly allocated to COVAID plus treatment as usual (TAU) or TAU only. Results: Most participants (84%) found COVAID useful. Reconviction data at six months were accessed for 109 (95%) participants. There were no differences between the two groups on violent reconvictions or all reconvictions at the six-month period, but at 17?months the COVAID group had 13% fewer people reconvicted for violence, and 20% fewer had reconvictions for any offence. Conclusion: The results indicate that an RCT is feasible and provides parameters for designing a full RCT. Differences in reconviction between groups favoured COVAID and were clinically important.     

Forecasts of Violence to Inform Sentencing Decisions

Objectives

Recent legislation in Pennsylvania mandates that forecasts of "future dangerousness" be provided to judges when sentences are given. Similar requirements already exist in other jurisdictions. Research has shown that machine learning can lead to usefully accurate forecasts of criminal behavior in such setting. But there are settings in which there is insufficient IT infrastructure to support machine learning. The intent of this paper is provide a prototype procedure for making forecasts of future dangerousness that could be used to inform sentencing decisions when machine learning is not practical. We consider how classification trees can be improved so that they may provide an acceptable second choice.

Methods

We apply an version of classifications trees available in R, with some technical enhancements to improve tree stability. Our approach is illustrated with real data that could be used to inform sentencing decisions.

Results

Modest sized trees grown from large samples can forecast well and in a stable fashion, especially if the small fraction of indecisive classifications are found and accounted for in a systematic manner. But machine learning is still to be preferred when practical.

Conclusions

Our enhanced version of classifications trees may well provide a viable alternative to machine learning when machine learning is beyond local IT capabilities.     

Tension in democratic administration: Does managerial confidence in administrative capacity reduce citizen participation in organizational decision-making?

The tension between bureaucratic and democratic values has characterized significant debates in the field of public administration. In this article, we ask, does public managers' confidence in their organizational administrative capacity affect citizen participation? Using managerial confidence in organizational response capacity (ORC) during crises as a vehicle to investigate the tension between democratic and administrative values, we examine whether an administration-centric approach to management influences citizen participation. We posit that higher levels of managerial confidence in organizational administrative capacity can lessen the pressure from political stakeholders which, in turn, might allow managers the autonomy to isolate themselves from the general public. The empirical analysis uses a structural equation model (SEM) to examine survey data from senior managers in 500 US cities. We find that managerial confidence in ORC reduces citizen participation, but only indirectly through diminishing influence from other governmental actors or by allowing managers to win the trust of political principals.     

A Fantasy Land

I have been a doctoral student at the University of Electronic Science and Technology of China since 2017. My studies in China give me the opportunity to explore a China different from the one I've seen on TV and read about in books. What happens in the university and the larger society has always been interesting to me. As I learned that this year marked the centenary of the founding of the Communist Party of China, it reminded me that I had been here for several years, and inspired me to share my own experiences.