ECONOMIC DEPRIVATION AND CHANGES IN HOMICIDE ARREST RATES FOR WHITE AND BLACK YOUTHS, 1967–1998: A NATIONAL TIME‐SERIES ANALYSIS*

Using time‐series techniques with national data for 1967–98, we model the effects on changes in age‐race‐specific arrest rates of changes in indicators of economic deprivation. A measure of child poverty is positively related to juvenile arrest rates for both races, whereas changing unemployment (lagged) yields a surprising negative effect on youth offending. Measures of intraracial income inequality are also associated with changes in juvenile arrest rates, but the effects differ by race. Between‐race inequality is unrelated to changes in arrest rates for both races. Our general conclusion is that fluctuations in juvenile homicide offending over recent decades can be understood, at least in part, with reference to the macro‐economic environment confronting young people and their families.     

President Bush: Talk to Kim Jong II

Never before in history have China and Japan been great powers at the same time. Today they must figure out how to live together as equals. The promise of mutual prosperity ties them together; the remembrance of bad things past pushes them apart. If that wary dance were not complicated enough, a nuclear provocateur from neighboring North Korea intrudes. A legendary figure of Japan's post‐war miracle, Tsuneo Watanabe, weighs in on these big questions. Hans Blix, a former UN arms inspector and the former South Korean prime minister and Nobel laureate, Kim Dae Jung, address the North Korean conundrum.     

Did Secularism Win Out? The Debate over the Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill

The debate over the 2008 Human Fertilisation and Embryology Bill marks the latest in a series of conflicts between secularism and religion in the public sphere. The failure of religiously motivated campaigners to alter the Bill's most substantive and controversial provisions, however, should not be seen as a victory for a homogeneous secular camp. Although campaigners motivated by religious belief were almost universally opposed to the Bill, secular campaigners reflected a more varied mix of opinion. Moreover, the degree of organisation and mobilisation shown by the religious lobby during the course of the debate, are a sign that attempts to secure a greater role for religion in the public sphere are likely to remain a prominent feature of British political life.     

David Hare's Fictional Politics

David Hare is Britain's leading political dramatist. His Gethsemane premiered in November 2008, amidst anticipation that the play would 'crucify' New Labour. Gethsemane is in fact one of a number of fictionalisations of New Labour produced since 1997. These works have generally held up the party under Tony Blair's leadership to unmitigated criticism. Gethsemane certainly took Blair's premiership to task. However, despite increasing popular cynicism about Westminster politicians, Hare also suggested that politics remains a potential means through which honourable ends might still be achieved. However, already primed by the prevailing hostility to New Labour encouraged by earlier fictionalisations, few of those who reviewed Gethsemane noted Hare's tentative message of hope.     

It’s People That Make Places

ON July 9, 2010, I paused on the Great Wall of China on the outskirts of Beijing, trying to imagine all the people who had stood in that spot before, feeling the same breeze and viewing the same horizon.