Labor Unrest and Movements in 1989 and 1990

An American political scientist analyzes the Soviet miners' strikes of 1989 and their consequences during 1990. Focusing on the three coal-mining regions of the Kuzbas, Donbas, and Vorkuta, the paper is based on rare access to official and unofficial local newspapers and interviews. Included are analytical accounts of similarities and differences in the strikers' demands and strategies, as well as of efforts to form and sustain new local, regional, and national labor unions. The conceivable outcome of the unrest and organizations emerging in 1989 is discussed in light of developments through the end of 1990. Journal of Economic Literature, Classification Numbers: 124, 830.     

Adolescent Thriving: The Role of Sparks,Relationships, and Empowerment

Although most social science research on adolescence emphasizes risks and challenges, an emergent field of study focuses on adolescent thriving. The current study extends this line of inquiry by examining the additive power of identifying and nurturing young people’s “sparks,” giving them “voice,” and providing the relationships and opportunities that reinforce and nourish thriving. A national sample of 1,817 adolescents, all age 15 (49% female), and including 56% white, 17% Hispanic/Latino, and 17% African-American adolescents, completed an online survey that investigated their deep passions or interests (their “sparks”), the opportunities and relationships they have to support pursuing those sparks, and how empowered they feel to make civic contributions (their “voice”). Results consistently supported the hypothesis that linking one’s spark with a sense of voice and supportive opportunities and relationships strengthens concurrent outcomes, particularly those reflecting prosociality, during a key developmental transition period. The three developmental strengths also predicted most outcomes to a greater degree than did demographics. However, less than 10 percent of 15-year-olds reported experiencing high levels of all three strengths. The results demonstrate the value of focusing on thriving in adolescence, both to reframe our understanding of this age group and to highlight the urgency of providing adolescents the opportunities and relationships they need to thrive.     

Election Inversions,Coalitions and Proportional Representation: Examples of Voting Paradoxes in Danish Government Formations

When collective choices are made in more than one round and with different groups of decision makers, so‐called ‘election inversions’ may take place, where each round produces different majority outcomes. In this article, two versions of such compound majority paradoxes are identified that are particularly, but not exclusively, relevant for systems of proportional representation with governing coalitions: the ‘Threshold Paradox’ and the ‘Federal Paradox’. The empirical relevance of the paradoxes is illustrated with examples from two Danish elections (in 1971 and in 1990), where a majority of the voters voted for one bloc of parties, but a majority of the seats fell to another.     

MI1(b) and the origins of British diplomatic cryptanalysis

The War Office's First World War cryptanalytic bureau MI1(b) has been severely overshadowed by its more glamorous equivalent in the Admiralty, ‘Room 40’. In particular its diplomatic decryption work has gone completely unnoticed; yet this was its main activity, and it contributed more than did Room 40 to their common successor, the Government Code and Cypher School (GC&CS). This article, drawing on the past decade's releases of GC&CS archives, traces the development of MI1(b)'s diplomatic work, disentangles its achievements from those of its better-known naval colleague, describes how the two organizations were merged to become GC&CS, and suggests why MI1(b)'s achievements were so quickly forgotten.     

The Value of Non-Governmental Intelligence: Widening the Field

In the UK, the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC) has a poor track record of predicting attack. In the US, official inquiries into 9/11 identified ‘a failure of imagination’ to conceive of a large scale threat to the American homeland. There is a long-standing literature on surprise attack which emphasizes that clues to predict attack often exist but are not pieced together by an intelligence sector which is not structured to look in the right direction. In a world of increasingly fragmented threats and weak signals, it is apparent that much of the challenge in intelligence work now lies not in collection but in managing requirements, setting priorities, and conducting incisive analysis based on the ability to imagine new threats. One solution to a failure of imagination is to widen the range of people who can contribute to the task. Non-Governmental analysis of security issues, whether by academia, civil society or the private sector, can help to identify emerging issues and set priorities. Whilst collection of secret intelligence may always remain the preserve of specialist Government agencies, the rest of the intelligence cycle can benefit from external contributions and open source intelligence. We argue that the process of setting intelligence requirements could be opened to a wider range of actors. In conflict environments, there may be particular value in an open process to identify what each side would need to know about the other to confidently seek peace.