Betting on the Future with a Cloudy Crystal Ball? How Financial Theory Can Improve Revenue Forecasting and Budgets in the States

Accurately predicting revenue growth is nearly impossible. Predicting the peaks and valleys of the business cycle is even more hopeless. This matters because tax revenues are largely driven by economic growth. Volatile, unpredictable revenue growth causes all sorts of unpleasant responses on the part of governments, most commonly manic-depressive patterns of spending and taxing. Fortunately, modern financial economics gives us a set of tools that can be used to manage volatility. This article shows how such tools can be used to inform fiscal decision making. The focus here is state governments, but the analysis applies to all jurisdictions that face hard budget constraints and therefore must balance spending increases against revenue growth.     

Women’s Role in Serial Killing Teams: Reconstructing a Radical Feminist Perspective

This article examines women’s roles in serial killing teams and reconsiders the traditional applications of radical feminist research on serial killers. These applications limit the utility of radical feminist theory for understanding female serial killers who kill in teams. An analysis of patriarchal power relations, which emphasizes the constitutive element of radical feminist theory, provides a useful framework to achieve insight into female serial killers who kill in teams. The advantage of this approach is demonstrated through three case studies of this type of female serial killer: Martha Beck, Myra Hindley, and Karla Homolka.     

The Party of Democratic Socialism in the new Germany

The Party of Democratic Socialism's electoral prowess reflects the success other reformed communist parties are having with voters disillusioned with the changes since 1989. This article seeks to explain why it is doing so well, what kind of people are drawn to it, and what its success tells us about the new eastern political culture and the consequences of unification. Its future prospects depend on how quickly the two parts of Germany become integrated and how effectively the other parties respond to eastern Germans' feelings. PDS success is a product of eastern German attitudes and conditions. It thrives on the tensions between east and west and on east Germans asserting their determination to be different from west Germans. But it will experience difficulty in continuing to derive its identity from a mixture of nostalgia for certain aspects of the GDR and animosity toward western Germans. With its path to western voters blocked, with growing intraparty disunity, and with a leader absorbed by charges that he had been a Stasi collaborator, the PDS faces a serious struggle to survive in the 21st century as a long-term significant political force.     

The accuracy of blood alcohol analysis using headspace gas chromatography when performed on clotted samples

Subjects consumed alcoholic beverages and attained blood ethyl alcohol concentrations ranging from 0.02 to 0.15 g/dL. Sets of blood samples were drawn from these subjects, including some samples that were allowed to clot and some in which anticoagulent was added. A quantitative analysis for ethyl alcohol was performed on these samples using headspace gas chromatography. The mean deviation of the concentration of ethyl alcohol in the clotted samples from the ethyl alcohol concentration in the corresponding control samples was 0.001 g/dL. The 99% confidence interval for this mean was +/- 0.0005 g/dL.     

New federalism and health care policy: states and the old questions

The New Federalism that evolved under the Reagan administration tends to grant states more discretion in the implementation of health care programs. It thereby rekindles old concerns about the commitment, capacity, and progressivity of the states. This paper reviews recent policy developments and reconsiders state performance from the vantage point of the mid-1980s. While hard evidence remains elusive, a plausible case exists that any gap between the states and Washington on commitment, capacity, and progressivity has diminished. State administrative capacity in particular has probably increased. The continued presence of substantial variation among the states needs to be underscored, however. Moreover, the relentless imperative of economic development, or migration, theory sets severe limits on how far states can go in adopting redistributive measures to assure adequate medical care for the poor. Given current federal laws, the most optimistic, plausible scenario envisions the rise of a technical politics of efficiency in the states. In spite of state limitations, health policy reformers need to pay increased attention to their potential role.