How the probability of a false positive affects the value of DNA evidence

Errors in sample handling or test interpretation may cause false positives in forensic DNA testing. This article uses a Bayesian model to show how the potential for a false positive affects the evidentiary value of DNA evidence and the sufficiency of DNA evidence to meet traditional legal standards for conviction. The Bayesian analysis is contrasted with the "false positive fallacy," an intuitively appealing but erroneous alternative interpretation. The findings show the importance of having accurate information about both the random match probability and the false positive probability when evaluating DNA evidence. It is argued that ignoring or underestimating the potential for a false positive can lead to serious errors of interpretation, particularly when the suspect is identified through a "DNA dragnet" or database search, and that ignorance of the true rate of error creates an important element of uncertainty about the value of DNA evidence.     

Depressive symptoms in women experiencing intimate partner violence

The study was a cross-sectional examination of African American women positive for intimate partner violence (IPV) who presented to the medical or psychiatric emergency department (ED) for treatment. African American women with a recent history of IPV who presented following an attempted suicide (n = 100) were compared to demographically comparable African American women who were IPV positive who had not attempted suicide and presented for treatment of another condition(n= 100). Women completed face-to-face interviews on several measures, including demographics and the Beck Depression Inventory-II (BDI-II). Overall, there were no demographic differences between cases and controls. Attempters reported statistically significant higher scores on all 21 BDI-II items than did nonattempters. Four BDI-II items had effect size values in the medium range: sadness, self-dislike, suicidal thoughts, and feelings of worthlessness. These four items can be used as a brief screen in the ED to detect female patients positive for IPV at increased risk for suicidal behavior.     

Book Reviews

Michael Graham Fry (ed.), Power, Personalities and Politics: Essays in Honour of Donald Cameron Watt (London: Frank Cass 1992) £35. ISBN 0 7146 3428 X.

John L. Offner, An Unwanted War: The Diplomacy of the United States and Spain over Cuba, 1895-1898 (Chapel Hill, University of North Carolina Press, 1992), $43.95 (hb), $16.45 (pb).

Michael Leifer and John Phipps, Vietnam and Doi Moi: Domestic and International Dimensions of Reform, RIIA Discussion Paper No. 35 (London: The Royal Institute of International Affairs: 1991) 40 + ii pp. £5. ISSN 0951-4171.

Michael C. Williams, Vietnam at the Crossroads (London: Pinter Publishers for the Royal Institute of International Affairs, 1992) 104 + viii pp. £22.50 (hb); £8.95 (pb). ISBN 1-85567-051-8 (hb); 1-85567-052-6 (pb).

Neville Brown, The Strategic Revolution: Thoughts for the Twenty-First Century (Brassey's: London, 1992), 248 pp.     

Leadership and the Transformation of a Major Institution: Charles Rossotti and the Internal Revenue Service

Charles Rossotti took the helm at the Internal Revenue Service in 1997 amid complaints of abuse of both IRS workers and taxpayers. Did he succeed at improving the agency’s image without sacrificing its principal mission to enforce the tax code fairly and effectively? This retrospective on Rossotti’s five‐year tenure suggests that he, his leadership team, and teams of IRS employees managed effective changes that substantially improved services to taxpayers and the administration of a beleaguered revenue‐collection system. His leadership offers valuable lessons and insights for administrators in all settings. Are there invaluable lessons that public administrators might learn from Rossotti’s management strategy?