Black-box models of candidate evaluation

All contemporary models of candidate evaluation are memory-based models in that they treat the direction and strength of evaluation as a function of the mix of positively and negatively valued (valenced) information retrieved from memory. Yet, oddly enough, despite the assumption that memory mediates judgment, none of the major models looks at the processes involved in what information voters recall and how that evidence was integrated into a summary evaluation. In this sense then, political science models of vote choice are black-box models: They are silent about how voters actually go about interpreting information and integrating the evidence into a summary evaluation of the candidates. In this article we critique the major political science models, call attention to the implicit assumptions they make about what evidence is assumed to be in memory, and conclude with an argument for introducing process into our explanations of vote choice.     

Predicting Consistency Between Officially Recorded and Self-Reported Records of Arrest

National Youth Survey Family Study (NYSFS) respondents were examined to identify the characteristics of individuals and their sociological environments, that would make them more likely to have consistency between self reported and officially recorded records of arrest. Somewhat surprisingly, it was found that those most likely to be at risk of arrest (males, high exposure to delinquent friends, higher level of substance use) are more likely to have consistency between officially recorded and self-reported arrests. Findings will be helpful in both producing more accurate information on arrests and in increasing sensitivity to the possibility of bias in arrest records that may be based on sociodemographic or behavioral characteristics of the individual.     

Occurrence of myocarditis in sudden death in children.

This study suggests that the prevalence of "silent" myocarditis may be higher in the pediatric population than is generally suspected and may contribute to a significant number of sudden and unexpected deaths in children, particularly those older than one year of age. The incidence of histologic myocarditis in children dying a violent death is similar to that reported as an incidental finding in adults.     

The importance of forensic evidence for decisions on criminal guilt

Recent studies have found that the general public perceives forensic evidence to be relatively inaccurate and to involve high levels of human judgement. This study examines how important the general public finds forensic evidence by comparing decisions on guilt and punishment in criminal cases that involve forensic versus eyewitness testimony evidence and examining whether a CSI effect exists. Specifically, this experimental survey study utilized a 2 (crime type: murder or rape) × 4 (evidence type: DNA, fingerprint, victim eyewitness testimony, or bystander eyewitness testimony) ? 1 (no victim testimony for murder scenario) design, yielding seven vignettes scenarios to which participants were randomly assigned. Results indicate that forensic evidence was associated with more guilty verdicts and higher confidence in a guilty verdict. Forensic evidence did not change the expected sentence length and did not generally affect the ideal sentence length. However, for rape, respondents believed that the defendant should receive a longer sentence when forensic evidence was presented but forensic evidence did not alter likely sentence that respondents expected the defendant to receive. The results of this study did not support a CSI effect. Overall, this study suggests that forensic evidence – particularly DNA – has a stronger influence during the verdict stage than the sentencing stage.     

Psychiatric Disorders of Parents of Physically Abused Adolescents

Psychiatric disorders of 142 parents of adolescents who were documented as physically abused during adolescence and 168 parents of non-abused comparison adolescents were assessed. Fathers and mothers of physically abused adolescents exhibited higher rates of Axis I diagnoses and co-occurring disorders, and had more impaired GAS scores than comparison parents. Fathers of abused adolescents had greater lifetime incidence of Conduct Disorder and Substance Abuse/Dependence than comparison fathers. Mothers of abused adolescents had more unipolar depressive disorders than comparison mothers. This study highlights the importance of mental health assessments and interventions for parents of physically abused adolescents. Since onsets of parental psychiatric disorders antedated the abuse, early recognition and treatment of parental disorders may contribute to prevention of the onset and/or reoccurrence of adolescent physical abuse.

A rural economic development plan to help the USA win its war on cocaine

Since the 1980s, the USA has fought cocaine in the Andes with carrots and sticks: interdiction and crop eradication wield the sticks, while Alternative Development (AD), which offers economic assistance to farmers who voluntarily abandon illicit cultivation, provides the carrots. Yet cocaine continues to permeate US streets, and rural Andean communities remain isolated from the legitimate economy. Many critics blame US belligerence for compounding the Andean drug war. The underlying problem with the existing strategy, however, might not be the aggressiveness of its military sticks, but the flimsiness of its development carrots. The inability of AD to persuade farmers to abandon coca cultivation may be causing US policy makers to over-apply military solutions – often inflaming rural communities and exacerbating regional instability in so doing. Few legal crops can match the earning power of coca. The article therefore suggests that the US carrot could be made more attractive by adopting a Venture Development model which helps rural farmers to process their legal produce into high-quality finished goods that command premium prices. Such a strategy could conceivably choke the cocaine engine by applying market-based forces to address market-based realities.     

On the strategy of social planning

Social planning deals centrally with human values—values which are important even though they do not appear as explicit factors in the classical problems of social welfare.The philosophical question as to whether facts can provide a logical basis for values need not be considered by the planner. He focuses, rather, on the specific interplay of values and facts in the concrete context of his concern.In the analysis of this interplay we can distinguish a number ofprinciples, criteria for the specification of social ends; for instance, the maximin principle, that improvements in a value distribution consisting in cutting off the bottom of the distribution have priority over raising the top.Social ends, in turn, are analysable intoideals, goals, andobjectives—directions, regions and points, respectively, in the value space.Cutting across these are the desiredqualities of the experience of pursuing those ends, qualities allowing for the assessment of planned alternatives by configurational judgment, rather than by a presumed summation of component values.A report submitted to the Social Planning Group of the Planning Board of Puerto Rico in 1958, not previously published.