Federal policy mandating safer cigarettes: a hypothetical simulation of the anticipated population health gains or losses.

If manufacturing a safer cigarette is technically possible--an open question--then mandating that tobacco manufacturers improve the safety of cigarettes would likely have both positive and negative implications for the nation's health. On the one hand, removing toxins may reduce the incidence of smoking-related diseases and premature mortality in smokers. On the other hand, smokers might be less inclined to quit, those who have quit might resume the habit, and youth who have never smoked will have one less reason to avoid tobacco use. To assess the expected population health impacts of a legislative or regulatory mandate, we created the Tobacco Policy Model, a system dynamics computer simulation model. The model relies on secondary data and simulates the U.S. population over time spans as long as 50 years. Our simulation results reveal that even if requiring cigarettes to be safer makes smoking more attractive and increases tobacco use, a net gain in population health is still possible.     

On the politics of traditional rulership

Conclusion We have in this paper tried to set out a framework which can facilitate analysis of the current and future situation of traditional rulership in contemporary African society. Our presentation of a proposed model for such an analysis is no doubt still in its elementary stages of formation. Much more work needs to be done. Nevertheless, our analysis has revealed certain salient elements and uncovered certain unresolved issues. If traditional rulers genuinely care about their own future they will have to devise techniques of legitimation which not only endear them to the government and the non-traditional elites, but also, and more importantly, to the mass of the people. True, the original role of the traditional rulers may be no more; still, it may be possible to salvage what is left.