A calculation of the theoretical significance of matched bullets

Abstract:  The comparison and identification of bullets from the striations that appear on their surfaces, after they have been fired from a gun, have been practiced since the 1920s. Although the significance of the correspondences of these impression marks has been empirically justified, there is a conspicuous absence of any theoretical foundation for the likelihood. What is presented here is the derivation of the formulae for calculating the probability for the correspondence of the impression marks on a subject bullet to a random distribution of a similar number of impression marks on a suspect bullet of the same type. The approach to the calculation entails subdividing the impression marks into a series of individual lines having widths equal to the separation distance at which a misalignment of striations between the two bullets cannot be distinguished. This distance depends upon the resolution limit imposed by the microscope as well as by the visual acuity of the examiner. A calculation of the probabilities for finding pairs and triplets of consecutively matching lines on nonmatching bullets, by an examiner with normal perception using a microscope at 40× magnification, produces values that agree well with the empirical probabilities determined by Biasotti in the 1950s and when determined for larger consecutive sequences suggest that they are extremely unlikely to occur. The formulae can be used to determine the probabilities for the random occurrence of any sequence of striae and provide a straightforward way to quantitatively justify the significance of a specific match between any two bullets.     

Charities and Political Campaigning: The Impact of Risk-Based Regulation

This article examines the effects of the Charity Commission’s implementation of risk-based regulation on the political campaigning activities of charities. In doing so, it draws on the findings of a recent empirical study which explored charity representatives’ awareness of relevant law and regulation and their perceptions of the obstacles they faced in their campaigning work. The article begins with a brief exploration of the emergence of risk-based approaches to regulation, followed by consideration of the legal and regulatory requirements for risk management by charities. Moving to its main focus of political campaigning, the article notes the unique legal issues faced by charities in campaigning work. It provides a comparative evaluation of the 2004 and 2008 versions of Charity Commission guidance CC9 on campaigning and political activity by charities (CC9) in terms of their approach to legal compliance, their formulation of the specific risks of campaigning and their approach to the process of risk management itself. In addition, the article considers the relevance to campaigning activity of the Commission’s current plans for an ‘enhanced approach’ to risk in its compliance work. The article concludes by considering the potential impacts on charitable campaigning of both the Commission’s overall approach to campaigning and its perceived risks, and of further entrenchment of risk principles in charity regulation.

STATUS OF COURT-CONNECTED PROGRAMS FOR CHILDREN WHOSE PARENTS ARE SEPARATING OR DIVORCING

This article reports on programs for children whose parents are divorcing or separating. Data were obtained from 67 courts and 81 program providers across the United States. Most court systems with children's programs used community providers and encouraged rather than required children's attendance. The average program consisted of one or two sessions, with a length of 4 to 5 1/2 hours. A partial list of commercially available curricula is provided in the appendix.     

Sovereign risk: Gulf sovereign wealth funds as engines of growth and political resource

ABSTRACT

The economic reform agenda moving across the Gulf Cooperation Council states precipitated by the end of a decade-long run of high oil prices, high population growth rates, and costly demands on the provision of generous state services and subsidies has had some unexpected consequences. The reformulation of state-society relations, especially with regard to ideas of how to create economic growth and how to model a future social contract, challenges the accepted literature and construct of rentierism. This essay focuses on one distinctive site of these shifting relations between rentier states and their citizens: the sovereign wealth fund (SWF). SWFs are based upon the shared rents from oil production, but as they have evolved they are also becoming transformative in new national development strategies. Some SWFs now veer from traditional practices of safeguarding wealth to more experimental and high-risk strategies that claim to be able to diversify national economies from oil dependency, while also promising high returns. The current moment of late rentierism heightens questions of ownership and of the state’s role as guardian or steward of society’s wealth. Using SWFs to examine state-society relations and rentierism across the Gulf, this article focuses on the Saudi case.     

Effects of prostitution: An urban population responds

This article examines community perceptions about the legalization of prostitution in a large southern community. The authors utilized a random digit dialing technique to develop a representative sample consisting of 850 respondents. In addition, the authors interviewed prostitutes to determine their perceptions about how they helped individuals and society. Themes were developed from the personal accounts of the prostitutes and presented to the public to assess their feelings regarding whether or not prostitution is beneficial in certain instances. One of the major findings of the study was that 32% of the community members interviewed believed that prostitution should be legalized. This finding led the authors to discuss policy implications in the last section of the article.     

State change in Chile, 1973–1988

All of the Southern Cone military regimes of the 1970s articulated a commitment to a neoconservative program of state change. Nowhere, however, was the commitment translated into policy with greater zeal, speed, and consistency than in Chile. What differed in Chile was less a lack of resistance to neoconservatism than the capacity of the economic team to ignore or override that resistance due to the extreme concentration of political power achieved by General Augusto Pinochet. The Chilean experience consequently underlines the importance of institutional arrangements for understanding variations in policy outcomes. Karen L. Remmer is a professor of political science at the University of New Mexico and associate editor of theLatin American Research Review. Her research interests revolve around the interface between politics and economics in Latin America with special reference to the policy impact of regime change.