Central bank independence and the commitment to monetary stability: The case of the German Bundesbank

It is generally accepted that a legally mandated independent central bank will pursue an anti‐inflationary monetary policy, even in the face of pressure from those politicians who appointed the central bank's decision makers. But are politically minded appointees to a central bank really transformed into die‐hard defenders of monetary stability? And, if so, why? This article seeks to answer these questions by exploring the case of the German Bundesbank. Hypotheses for explaining the anti‐inflation orientation of the central bank are explored and supporting evidence for each of the hypotheses is sought, using interviews with Bundesbank council members.     

The Sources of Pakistani Attitudes toward Religiously Motivated Terrorism

This study is interested in understanding public opinion in Pakistan toward terror attacks. Specifically, this study explores (1) the general picture of attitudes in Pakistan toward terrorism and (2) which individuals are most likely to support terrorism in Pakistan. The study aims to give insights into how pervasive a support base exists for terrorism as a tactic in Pakistan and it seeks to isolate the individual-level traits that account for the variation we see among Pakistani Muslims regarding their level of acceptance of terrorism against Pakistani and Indian targets. The study finds that a large majority of Pakistanis oppose terrorism but terrorism directed at Indian targets is more tolerated than terrorism against Pakistani targets. The study also finds that those who are most supportive of Talibanization in Pakistan are the most supportive of terrorism.     

Screening procedures in the United Kingdom for positions of trust with children

Abstract

Child services organisations need policies that minimise the risk of sexual abuse of the children in their care. In particular, managers (and the public) are justifiably concerned when abuse is perpetrated by individuals who should not have been working with children in the first place. Unfortunately, there has been relatively little work on determining unacceptable risk for sexually abusive behaviour in child service organisations. The purpose of this paper is to describe the contexts in which screening procedures are appropriate, review the academic literature on screening procedures and present the results of a pilot survey of current screening practices in the United Kingdom. We comment on the effectiveness of screening measures available for use by organisations and provide suggestions for improvement. Specifically, we recommend that screening procedures consider risk factors associated with the onset and persistence of child sexual abuse perpetration.     

Mandatory life sentences for serious sex offenders in England and Wales: tough,but intelligent too?

Abstract

This paper reviews the changes in risk assessment procedures for sexual offenders over the last 15 years from the viewpoint of two active participants in that change. Best practices with this target group have evolved at a dizzying pace, leaving many practitioners and programme managers uncertain about which tests or procedures they should use and, frankly, wondering why things keep changing. We view this ongoing evolution as very positive. Compared to the early 1990s, evaluators now have better knowledge of the static and dynamic factors associated with sexual recidivism, and a number of empirically validated risk assessment tools. We describe the various risk assessment procedures we have introduced (e.g. STATIC-99, SONAR, STABLE-2007/ACUTE-2007), the reasons why practices have changed and the reasons why practices will continue to change.     

The Value of Diplomatic History: A Case Study in the Historical Thought of Herbert Butterfield

This article, substantially based on archival sources, aims to rehabilitate diplomatic history as a mode of enquiry and education using the insights and reflections of Sir Herbert Butterfield, one of the leading historians of the twentieth century. Integrated with developments in theory, methodology and new areas of inquiry over the past generation, his thoughts, it will be argued, can inform the tenets of a revitalized diplomatic history—one that fulfills the promise of its founding scholars and one that reclaims its place at the forefront of historical scholarship: a corrective to some of our present academic priorities.     

Assessing Data Completeness,Quality, and Representativeness of Justifiable Homicides in the FBI’s Supplementary Homicide Reports: A Research Note

Journal of Quantitative Criminology - The most widely used data set for studying police homicides—the Supplementary Homicide Reports (SHR) kept by the Federal Bureau of Investigation—is...     

Voters' Perceptions of Policy Convergence and the Short‐term Opportunities of Anti‐immigrant Parties: Examples from Sweden

In contrast to previous studies on the political opportunity structures of anti‐immigrant parties, this article argues that voters’ perceptions of policy convergence between mainstream alternatives affect their short‐term propensity for supporting such partisan challengers. Drawing upon leading research in the field, two hypotheses about voters’ perceptions of policy convergence, in two policy areas (economic redistribution and immigration), are presented. The main findings in the article suggest that policy convergence between mainstream parties has a more immediate impact on the electorate than commonly recognised. Using unique data from Sweden, the article shows that perceived convergence between Swedish mainstream parties in the field of immigration policy increases potential support for the anti‐immigrant party, the Sweden Democrats (SD). Yet the results are the opposite when it comes to perceptions of convergence in the field of economic‐distributive policies. In contrast to widespread assumptions, the article thus finds that policy convergence between mainstream parties only appears to create short‐term opportunities for anti‐immigrant parties if it takes place on their own policy turf. These results indicate, in other words, that the potential electorate of the SD – which is a wider group than hard‐core xenophobes – is largely driven by preferences about immigration policy, rather than the short‐term urge to protest against mainstream parties. The article, therefore, concludes that the cordon sanitaire to isolate the SD in Sweden – which is underpinned by de facto convergence between mainstream parties on immigration policy – could improve, and is unlikely to curb, the short‐term electoral opportunities of this party.     

Partisan responses to Europe: Comparing Finnish and Swedish political parties

Abstract. This article analyzes party responses to European integration in Finland andSweden.We argue that such responses are shaped by seven explanatory factors: basic ideology, public opinion, factionalism, leadership influence, party competition, transnational links, and the development of integration. Each factor can lead to a positive or a negative evaluation of the European Union. In the empirical analysis, the sample includes all parties represented in the respective national parliaments, and the research material consists of party documents, parliamentary votes, statements by leading party figures, public opinion surveys, direct observation and interviews. Party competition and leadership influence are the strongest factors in the Finnish case, while public opinion and factionalism are the strongest factors in Sweden. Issue avoidance combined with the secondary importance of the EU in party politics explain why parties have been relatively successful in containing internal factionalism and discord, especially in Finland.     

Europeans and their money: Explaining public support for the common European currency

Using public opinion surveys conducted in the member states of the European Union, this paper seeks to provide a systematic understanding of public support for the EMU project and European–level monetary policy authority. We develop models of support for EU monetary policy that incorporate a utilitarian component and elements of multilevel governance that is emerging within the EU. These models are tested at the aggregate level of survey respondents. The results show that variations in attitudes to the common currency are driven by collectively–based considerations of the costs and benefits associated with the common currency project as well as the interaction of European–level politics and the domestic politics of the member states.     

The role of the state in a technological society†

Abstract. Society demands ever-increasing interventions by the state. At the local level the demand for increased state activity is caused by the complexity of modem society and by the increased concentrations of people being experienced, and even the most traditional areas of government service will expand. Provincial and federal governments will find their increased activity revolving around education and the manipulation of the economy. People do not want the government to do anything more, and are distrustful of government activity. They have those feelings for good cause. Some of the things government attempts to do it does incompetently (and I digress to bad-mouth Opportunities for Youth, unemployment insurance, and municipal transportation). On the other hand, some of those things that government does do well, like creating unemployment and providing public housing, it does on such a scale that people are badly hurt by the results. Society is making many rapid changes. Society does that for itself; the government does not do it. The job of government is to assess and respond to those changes. It ought not to initiate them. as it is incapable of doing so. The political process only works kvell with present public concerns. The greatest dangers to society are posed by the tendency of government to act without political control or direction. This danger is accentuated by an out-of-date political structure, placing powers and responsibilities in the hands of governments that are beyond any practical political control. There is a dilemma. People want and need more government services and do not trust government to provide them. The solution must be found in a radical restructuring of levels of government (I indulge in the pleasant fantasy of contemplating the abolition of Ottawa), and in the strengthening of communities, primarily through organizers. Sommaire. La société exige de l'état des interventions toujours plus fréquentes. Au niveau régional, le besoin d'unr participation plus importante de l'état est dûà la complexité. de la société rnoderne et à la concentration toujours plus grande de la population, de manière que même les services gouvernementaux les plus routiniers y prendront de l'expansion. Les gouvernements provinciaux et fédéral borneront généralement leurs Iiouvelles activités au domaine de l'enseignement et à la manipulation de l'économie. La population voudrait mettre fin aux ingérences dun gouvernement dont elle craint les activités, et pour causc: ! Certaines tentatives du gouvernement ont été entreprises sans compétence (je songe é l'échec du programme Jeunesse, à l'assurance chômage et aux systèmes de transport municipaux). Par ailleurs, ce que le gouvemement fait le mieux (propager le chômage et multiplier les habitations à loyer modéré) il le fait sur une telle envergure que toute la population finit par en soufh-ir. La société subit des changements nombreux et rapides, changements qu'elle accomplit elle-même, sans l'aide du gouvernement. Le rôle du gouvernement est d'évaluer ces changements et d'agir en conséquence. Ce n'est pas à lui d'en prendre l'initiative, d'autant plus qu'il en est incapable. Le processus politique ne peut s'attaquer efficacement qu'aux difficultés existantes. Les plus grands dangers qui confrontent la société proviennent de la tendance gouvernementale à agir sans contrôle ni modération. Ce danger se trouve encore aggravé par un système politique périmé qui abandonne le pouvoir et les responsabilités à des formes de gouvernements soustraits à tout contrble politique pratique. Le probléme est sérieux: la population, qui a besoin de services gouvernementaw plus étendus, ne peut se fier à lui pour les procurer. La solution ne viendra donc que d'une restructuration radicale de tous les niveaux du gouvernement (il m'arrive de rêver de l'abolition totale d'Ottawa) et d'un renforcement des pouvoirs municipaux aux mains d'organisateurs compétents.