Policy analytic implications for a theory of prediction and decision

Decision theory developed to prescribe the consistent choice behavior under uncertainty of an ideal individual. The policy analysis context of organizational decision-making, however, necessitates certain modifications to the fundamental decision theory in order to deal with the problems of group consensus, ill-defined objectives and disparate information sources. The argument is presented that more attention must be given to the explicit formulation of judgment and that, in particular, there has to be an integration of the methodology of forecasting into the decision-analytic framework. A consequence of adopting a decision-theoretic approach to forecasting is the apparent need to develop ways of synthesizing the set of available predictive methods in order to satisfy the subjectivist principle of total evidence utilization. The synthetic approach to forecasting is in contrast to the conventional selective method. A brief review of some operational methods of pursuing the synthetic approach is given.     

Police authority and reform in Augustan Rome and nineteenth-century England

This paper examines the police reforms of Augustan Rome and nineteenth-century England against the back-ground of the sociohistorical conditions within which they occurred. It reveals that the localism of reforms in Rome and the centralizing reforms of England were part and parcel of the traditional and modern societies from which they developed. Although this analysis offers few, if any, unequivocal historical lessons concerning the local autonomy and public accountability of modern law enforcement, it does reveal one of its basic dilemmas. Today's police work rests upon a legal rational system of social organization. It is, nevertheless, carried out within the exigencies of local communities of which it is though to be responsive. This dualism between universalistic and particularistic principles underlies current discussions of crime control and order maintenance. Attempts to dissolve this dilemma by focusing upon crime control or order maintenance to the exclusion of the other are inadequate inasmuch as the dilemma belongs to the very structure of society. Consequently, solutions such as external review boards and monitoring agencies or civilian monitoring organizations seem more appropriate as a means of maintaining the presence of universal norms while at the same time increasing levels of public accountability.     

Digoxin-like immunoreactive substance in postmortem blood of infants and children

A digoxin-like immunoreactive substance (DLIS) has been reported in the serum of infants not receiving digoxin. This study was undertaken to determine if DLIS is present in the postmortem blood and tissues of infants or children and whether the endogenous substance could interfere with forensic toxicological analysis in suspected overdose. Ninety blood specimens taken from the heart at autopsy of children or infants were screened for DLIS using commercial radioimmunoassay kits. The average age at death in these cases was 8.6 months, the median age was 2 months. DLIS equivalent to 0.25 to 2.0 ng/mL digoxin was found in one third of the cases. The incidence of positive findings was 5/6 stillborns, 10/45 Sudden Infant Death Syndrome (SIDS), 10/15 deaths as a result of infection, 4/7 homicides, 1/8 deaths caused by congenital defects, and 0/9 accidental deaths. The body distribution of DLIS was investigated and highest levels were found in the liver. Findings of DLIS in blood were correlated with renal failure, (elevated vitreous urea nitrogen), electrolyte imbalance, and liver trauma. Apparent concentrations were in the equivalent therapeutic range of digoxin and would not be confused with accidental or intentional overdose with digoxin.     

Identification of hemoglobin derivatives by means of electrofocusing

A method for the identification and quantitation of hemoglobin derivatives is described. Samples diluted 1 in 100 were applied to precoated polyacrylamide-gel plates containing an Ampholine gradient of pH 3.5 – 9.5 and focused for 1.5 h at a constant 40 W. All hemoglobins under investigation were characterized by specific patterns which allow them to be differentiated. Electrofocusing is recommended for screening tests, but quantitative evaluation using densitometry is possible as well.